The Cleveland Guardians took Tuesday's series opener against the Chicago White Sox 10-7 in extra innings. Here are our picks for Wednesday's clash between the Guardians and White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field.
The White Sox look to gain ground in the AL wild-card race with just a couple of weeks remaining in the regular season. The Guardians aim to finish strong, with a five-game lead on the White Sox for the top spot in the AL Central.
With the Guardians taking Tuesday's opener and leading the season series between these two clubs 10-7, the White Sox look to get right with Lance Lynn on the mound up against Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday's game between the Guardians and White Sox (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).
Guardians vs. White Sox Game Info
Date/Time: Wednesday, Sept. 21, 8:10 p.m. ET
Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Weather: 69 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 14-mph wind
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds Analysis
The White Sox are the moneyline favorites, ranging from –132 at FanDuel to -135 at DraftKings and BetMGM. Chicago has drawn 68% of the handle on just 41% of tickets.
The total is set at 7.5 or 8, up from a consensus opening line of 7. Contrary to the line move, 58% of the handle is on the Under.
Guardians vs. White Sox Projected Pitchers
Triston McKenzie (10-11, 3.08 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) vs. Lance Lynn (7-5, 3.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
McKenzie will make his 28th start of the season. He has been particularly strong in his last seven starts with a 2.84 ERA. He struck out 14 batters in his last start against the White Sox on August 19. In McKenzie’s most recent start against the Minnesota Twins, he completed seven innings with seven hits but only three earned runs allowed. McKenzie possesses a K/9 of 8.7 and a walk rate of 2.3 BB/9 over the course of 172 1/3 innings this season.
Lynn will face Cleveland his second straight start and third in just over a month. Lynn has struggled against the Guardians this season — in his four starts against them, he’s recorded a 4.50 ERA. Lynn struggled quite a bit to start the season but has found his footing lately. He pitched 6 1/3 innings against the White Sox in his last start and allowed only two earned runs. Lynn’s strikeout rate is 9.8 with a walk rate of 1.4 BB/9.
Also in his favor, Lynn’s been pitching great at home of late, with an ERA of 1.89 over his last three home starts
Guardians vs. White Sox Picks
- White Sox (-132 via FanDuel) ★★
- Over 7.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ★★
- Lynn Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 via DraftKings) ★★★
Guardians vs. White Sox ML Pick
White Sox (-132) ★★
Both the White Sox's offense and pitching have been rather middle-of-the-pack this season. While the Guardians rank just 19th in the league with a .697 OPS, their pitching has pushed them ahead in the AL Central.
Still, Lynn has been solid at home over his last three starts, and with 14-mph winds and these two starters on the mound who very much rely on the fly balls, I’d give the edge to the White Sox.
With the Guardians leading the season series 10-7, it’s for the most part been a back-and-forth battle between the rivals all season as we saw on Tuesday when it wasn’t until the 11th inning when the Guardians’ offense was able to push ahead.
With the White Sox sitting at 16-11 in their last 27 home games and Lynn looking much more comfortable on the mound, I’m giving Chicago the edge to even the three-game series 1-1.
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Guardians vs. White Sox O/U Pick
Over 7.5 (-115) ★★
With an 11-inning game on Tuesday, both of these bullpens are likely running on fumes and going to be relying on maybe not their best relievers. As I mentioned, the 14-mph wind could definitely play a factor as well.
Though these two offenses have been rather average at best this season, it’s not too crazy to expect a high-scoring battle, especially after a hard-fought game in extra innings.
Guardians vs. White Sox Prop Pick
Lynn Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140) ★★★
Lynn may have a 9.8 K/9, but given the wind and his struggles with this Guardians' lineup over the course of the season, I think a couple of pitches are definitely going to get away from him for the Guardians to cash in on.
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Guardians-White Sox picks made 9/21/2022 at 1:13 p.m. ET.