Cardinals vs. Brewers MLB Picks: Rivals Wrap Up Series

The St. Louis Cardinals will look to put more distance between themselves and the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings when they wrap up a four-game series Thursday. Who has the upper hand in the series finale? Find out where we lean in our Cardinals-Brewers picks.

The best in the NL Central will continue to do battle Thursday. The Cardinals have won the last two games of the series and have opened up a one-game lead in the division standings. St. Louis has gone 6-5 against Milwaukee so far this season and has a +6 run differential in the head-to-head matchups.

The Cards will send Dakota Hudson to the mound as they attempt to get the series victory. The Brewers will counter with rookie Jason Alexander who has impressed in his first four outings.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Thursday's matchup between the Cardinals and Brewers (odds via Unibet, Circa, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cardinals vs. Brewers Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, June 23, 2:10 p.m. ETTV: Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports WisconsinLocation: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WIWeather: 75 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 9.2-mph winds

Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds

Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds Analysis

Despite losing the previous two games, the Brewers are favored to take the finale. Milwaukee is drawing 82% of the cash and the tickets.

The Over/Under is currently set at 9.5 runs after opening at nine runs. The odds on the Over are set at even money while the Under carries -120 odds.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Projected Pitchers

Dakota Hudson (5-3, 3.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs. Jason Alexander (1-0, 2.42 ERA, 1.70 WHIP)

After an up and down start to the season, Hudson has enjoyed quality outings in four of his last five appearances, including allowing five hits and no runs in 4 2/3 innings in a 4-2 win over the Brewers on May 27. Since then, the right-hander allowed one run to the San Diego Padres, one to the Tampa Bay Rays, and followed up a poor showing against the Cincinnati Reds by allowing two runs to the Boston Red Sox on Saturday.

Hudson's numbers match up with Adam Wainwright's in ERA (3.31 for Hudson to 3.32 for Wainwright), WHIP (1.29 to 1.26), and WAR (1.2 to 1.3).

Alexander is coming off his first career victory, in which he allowed eight hits but just two earned runs in a 7-3 win over the Reds on Saturday. The 29-year-old has now totaled 22 1/3 innings and is averaging 1.5 earned runs per game across those four starts. The level of competition hasn't been the strongest as he's faced the Reds, Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies, and Chicago Cubs. He'll face a true test in the Cardinals' veteran lineup on Thursday.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Picks

Cardinals (+104 via Unibet) ???Under 9.5 (-113 via Circa) ????Alexander Under 16.5 outs recorded (-105 via DraftKings) ???

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Cardinals vs. Brewers ML Pick

Cardinals (+104)

I'll gladly take St. Louis at plus money. The Cardinals are superior in most offensive and defensive categories and own the more reliable starting pitcher in Thursday's matchup.

The Cardinals are also comfortable playing at American Family Field, where they've won eight of the last 11 meetings with the Brewers.

https://twitter.com/Cardinals/status/1539791251792330752?s=20&t=Pr568_8DYbjHjQS5rzqeqA

The stats do not favor the Brew Crew, who are 1-7 in their last eight games in which they're posted as home favorites.

Cardinals vs. Brewers O/U Pick

Under 9.5 (-113)

Ten runs are just too many to expect out of this matchup. While the pitching matchup doesn't elicit thoughts of a duel, both Hudson and Alexander have done well to suppress runs. Hudson has a 3.46 ERA for the month of June and Alexander carries a 2.42 mark.

Only three of the 11 matchups between these teams have gone Over this number. St. Louis carries a 36-31-4 O/U record into the game and Milwaukee's contests have skewed more to the Under, as evidenced by the team's 33-34-4 O/U record.

63% of the betting public is on the Under.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Prop Bet

Alexander Under 16.5 outs recorded (-105)

As noted above, Alexander is about to face the toughest test of his big-league career. The Cardinals rank sixth in team batting average (.254), seventh in OBP (.322), ninth in slugging (.404), and just outside the top 10 in OPS.

With a veteran roster led by the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, the Cards figure to stretch out Alexander, who has only gone past 5 2/3 innings once and has averaged 77 pitches in his last two outings.

Where to Bet on Cardinals-Brewers Picks

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Cardinals-Brewers picks made on 6/23/2022 at 11:24 a.m. ET.