Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: Tonight's MLB Odds & Best Bets (Thursday, Sept. 3)
My Brewers vs. Cubs prediction expects the road team to win this four-game series tonight. RHP Logan Henderson and RHP Kevin Gausman square off today in this matchup between the top two teams in the NL Central.
My MLB picks include Brewers ML (-111), Michael Conforto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+165), and Jake Bauers Over 0.5 home runs (+450). First pitch from Wrigley Field in Chicago is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX, MLB.TV), with the Brewers listed as a -111 betting favorite.
⚾ Brewers vs. Cubs picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brewers ML (-111 via Caesars) | 2.22u → 2u | The Brewers have won 11 of Henderson's last 12 starts. |
| Michael Conforto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+165 via Hard Rock Bet) | 1.21u → 2u | Conforto is batting .292 against fastballs, which Henderson throws 59.9% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Jake Bauers Over 0.5 home runs (+450 via BetRivers) | 0.44u → 2u | Gausman throws 52.2% fastballs and 45% offspeed pitches vs. LHH, and Bauers has a .502 and a .494 xSLG vs. those pitch types, respectively. |
Total wagered: 3.87 units | Max profit: 6 units
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🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Cubs?
I like the Brewers to win 5-4 today in Chicago. Milwaukee is 12-5 in its last 17 games, while Chicago is 4-9 in its last 13 contests. Henderson is also having a better season than Gausman. The Brewers right-hander has a 2.48 ERA across 14 starts, while Gausman has posted a 4.52 ERA across 28 starts with the Blue Jays and Cubs.
Score prediction: Brewers 5, Cubs 4
💰 Brewers vs. Cubs prediction & best bet
Brewers ML (-111)
Don't let Jacob Misiorowski's Cy Young-worthy season overshadow how dominant Henderson has been.
The Brewers have won 11 of Henderson's last 12 starts, with the rookie right-hander allowing just one earned run in three straight starts. While the Cubs have yet to face Henderson, they've been trending downward since mid-August, despite Pete Crow-Armstrong becoming the betting favorite in the NL MVP odds.
Brewers ML (-111) at Caesars is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
📡 SBR Edge: K's in Chicago
The Cubs average the 12th-most strikeouts per game (8.49), and Henderson ranks in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage (30.1%).
🔥 Best Brewers vs. Cubs player prop bet
Michael Conforto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+165)
Not only has Conforto gone over this line in two of his last three games, but he also has a favorable pitching matchup today that he should be able to take advantage of.
Henderson throws fastballs 59.9% of the time to left-handed hitters, and Conforto is batting .292 against that pitch type. He'll likely bat near the bottom of the order, which means that if he's on base, Crow-Armstrong will likely have a chance to drive him in.
Conforto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+165) at Hard Rock Bet is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
💣 Brewers vs. Cubs home run prediction
Jake Bauers to hit a home run (+450)
Bauers hasn't homered in any of his last seven games, so we're getting a slightly inflated line on him (there are also +550s available at less popular books).
Bauers faces Gausman today, who throws 52.2% fastballs and 45% offspeed pitches to left-handed hitters. That's great for Bauers, as he has a .502 and .494 expected slugging percentage against those pitch types, respectively. Bauers' Overs appear twice on BetMGM's most-bet MLB props today, and the public is right to back him in this spot.
Bauers to hit a home run (+450) at BetRivers is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
🎟️ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Foscue | Rangers | Under 0.5 runs | -200 |
| Quinn Mathews | Cardinals | 5+ strikeouts | +115 |
| Jake Bauers | Brewers | Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs | +100 |
| Michael Wacha | Royals | Under 5.5 strikeouts | -210 |
| Jake Bauers | Brewers | 2+ hits + runs + RBIs | -105 |
🚀 Brewers vs. Cubs same-game parlay
Parlaying these three bets at bet365 pays +2900.
💵 Brewers vs. Cubs SGP picks
- Brewers ML
- Michael Conforto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
- Jake Bauers Over 0.5 home runs
Best odds: +2900 via bet365 (0.07u -> 2u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-72-4 | -15.74 units ❌ | -19.4% ❌ |
| Player props | 11-57-3 | -10.59 units ❌ | -24.8% ❌ |
| Game props | 8-8 | -3.1 units ❌ | -10.7% ❌ |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units ✅ | 1.7% ✅ |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units ✅ | 100% ✅ |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
📊 Live Brewers vs. Cubs odds
🤑 Brewers vs. Cubs betting splits
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Team / bet type | Odds | Bet % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | |||
| 🟡 Moneyline | -120 | 61% | 72% |
| 🟡 Run line | -1.5 (+135) | 58% | 66% |
| 🟡 Total | o8.5 (-105) | 68% | 73% |
| Cubs | |||
| 🔴 Moneyline | +100 | 39% | 28% |
| 🔴 Run line | +1.5 (-165) | 42% | 34% |
| 🔴 Total | u8.5 (-115) | 32% | 27% |
📈 Brewers vs. Cubs betting trends
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
| Brewers | Statistic | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| 87-53 | W-L record | 78-62 |
| 75-65 | Run line record | 68-72 |
| 61-75-4 | O/U record | 78-62 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 3.48 | Team ERA | 4.21 |
| .257 | Team batting avg. | .252 |
| .740 | OPS | .772 |
🚑 Brewers vs. Cubs injuries
📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Cubs
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 3
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Brewers starter: Logan Henderson (9-2, 2.48 ERA)
- Cubs starter: Kevin Gausman (8-11, 4.52 ERA)
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