Atlanta Braves ace Max Fried and Seattle Mariners rookie pitcher George Kirby present a whale of a pitching matchup on Saturday. We're breaking down that showdown and more with our Braves-Mariners picks.
The Braves are fresh off capturing first place in the National League East on Friday night, as they sit a half-game ahead of the New York Mets in baseball's tightest divisional race.
Meanwhile, the Mariners occupy the third wild-card spot in the American League, four games up on the Baltimore Orioles.
Braves vs. Mariners Game Info
Date: Saturday, Sept. 10,
9:10 p.m. ET
TV: Root Sports Northwest, Bally Sports South, MLB TV
Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Weather: 76 degrees, 4-mph winds (stadium has a retractable roof)
Braves vs. Mariners Odds Analysis
The Braves opened at -140 but have been bet down to -130 at DraftKings, despite 77% of the cash coming in on Atlanta.
The total opened at 7 and has remained there at FanDuel, bumping to 7.5 with heavy juice on the Under at DraftKings. Around 73% of the money is on the Under.
Braves vs. Mariners Projected Pitchers
Max Fried (13-5, 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) vs. George Kirby (6-3, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
Fried has been an ace for Atlanta as it's made its march to the top of the division. He hasn't permitted more than three earned runs in a game since June 14.
Meanwhile, Kirby has averaged better than a strikeout per inning in his rookie campaign, but he's also allowed more than a hit per inning for an increased WHIP.
Braves vs. Mariners Picks
Braves vs. Mariners ML Pick
Braves (-130) ★★★★
The Braves have a .606 win rate on the road this season, second-best in MLB. Perhaps even more impressively, they have a remarkable outright record of 33-11 (.750) when favored on the road.
Seattle is 13-15 outright as a home underdog this season. Kirby has never faced the Braves, who boast the fourth-best OPS against right-handed pitching (.751) in MLB this season.
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Braves vs. Mariners RL Pick
Braves -1.5 (+136) ★★★★
Though Seattle’s run line record as a home underdog puts them 10th in MLB in the category this season, the Braves have been dynamite in this spot on the road. They are 27-17 on the run line as road favorites this season and got it done on Friday in a 6-4 win over the Mariners.
Like Kirby with Braves hitters, Fried enters Saturday’s start with the element of surprise against the Seattle lineup, as not many Mariners have significant work against him. Those who have seen Fried have struggled, going 2-for-31 combined against him.
Braves vs. Mariners O/U Pick
Over 7 (+100) ★★
These two teams combined to score 10 runs in the series opener on Friday. I just can’t advise taking a line that is a whopping -140 on Under 7.5 at DraftKings. FanDuel offers Over 7 at even-money, so I’d take it there to buy down the hook and keep a push in play if things stay low-scoring.
Though he’s walked only 14 batters all season, Kirby has given up more than a hit per inning. If the Braves can nickel and dime Kirby as he’s been prone to allow, they are equipped to take advantage of their chances. The Braves’ .811 OPS with runners in scoring position this season ranks second in MLB.
Braves vs. Mariners Prop Bet
Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118) ★★★★★
Though I expect the Braves to harass Kirby with base runners on Saturday, the Seattle rookie might also have his way in the strikeout department. Kirby has posted better than a punchout per inning this season and has been particularly adept with the whiffs of late, posting 43 Ks over his last seven starts (36 1/3 innings).
For all their positive attributes offensively, the Braves strike out a ton - 9.25 times per game to rank 28th in MLB. Given the combined tendencies in this matchup, Kirby shouldn’t have much trouble getting to six strikeouts.
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Braves-Mariners picks made on 9/10/2022 at 12:34 p.m. ET.