The surprising Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays for a three-game set in Baltimore. Can the O's stay in the playoff hunt against their divisional foe? Read on for our Blue Jays-Orioles picks for Monday night.
The Orioles look to get back to their winning ways after their five-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore is now 56-52 overall and an impressive 31-21 at home.
The Blue Jays hope to stay ahead of the Orioles in the AL wild-card race. They salvaged a four-game split in Minnesota on a controversial call on Sunday. Toronto is 60-48 on the season but only 26-27 on the road.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Game Info
Date/Time: Monday, Aug. 8, 7:05 p.m. ETTV: Sportsnet, MASNLocation: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MDWeather: 92 degrees, 14% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds out to left-center
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds Analysis
The Blue Jays opened at -150 with the Orioles at +125, but the line has shifted to Toronto -135 (DraftKings) and Baltimore +120 (BetMGM) with most of the action coming in on the home underdogs.
The Blue Jays are +100 on the -1.5 run line (DraftKings) with the Orioles +1.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
The total has stayed put at 9.5 across the board, except for BetMGM where it has moved down to 9.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Projected Pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 4.86 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) vs. Jordan Lyles (8-8, 4.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last five starts, but he's also lasted longer than five innings just once. He averages less than four innings on the road. The Jays are 1-8 in Kikuchi’s nine road starts (5.75 ERA).
Jordan Lyles has settled down nicely after a rough start to the season. He's allowed more than three earned runs once in his last seven starts, going 4-1 (team record 5-2) with 14 ER in 39 IP (3.23 ERA) in that span.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Picks
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Blue Jays vs. Orioles Moneyline Pick
Kikuchi doesn't pitch long into games and the Toronto bullpen has been taxed recently. Four of the Jays' better relievers have thrown at least 30 pitchers in the last three days, including Yimi Garcia, Jordan Romano, and Anthony Bass throwing 15-plus pitches on Sunday.
The Orioles are one of the top 10 teams in the league in terms of home record as well as record against left-handed starters. They're 24-16 vs. LHP and already beat Kikuchi once this season. In fact, Lyles was the winning pitcher in that game on June 14.
I love the value of Orioles +120 here and the +1.5 run line (-130 via DraftKings) is worth a look as well. Of Baltimore's 52 losses, 18 were by one run. Adding that to their 56 victories, the Orioles have won or lost by one in 74 of 108 games (68.5%) this season.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles O/U Pick
Over 9.5 (-105)
It's going to be a hot night in Baltimore and the ball should be flying, even with the new wall in left field. Kikuchi is susceptible to some early runs and the Toronto bullpen won't have all its top guns available.
In the first head-to-head series this season, all four games had at least 11 runs and the Over is 16-5-2 over the last two seasons.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prop Pick
Lyles Over 3.5 strikeouts (-162)
Lyles has four or more strikeouts in 16 of 22 starts this season, including in nine of his last 10 outings. He struck out seven Blue Jays in 5 1.3 IP back on June 14. Opposing starters have racked up at least four strikeouts in four straight games against the Blue Jays, including five or more in three of those contests.
You can also take a stab at Lyles recording Over 4.5 strikeouts (+132 via FanDuel). He's hit that mark in 11 of 22 starts this season.
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Blue Jays-Orioles picks from 8/8/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.