MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, Aug. 29
Left-handed sluggers are the theme of my best home run predictions today, with a mix of some of the league’s leaders as well as rookies who have done historic things mixed in. I'm looking to make it seven straight columns where at least one of my MLB home run picks cashes.
Tristan Peters etched his name in the White Sox record books with the things he has accomplished recently, and I expect his torrid hitting to continue in a divisional matchup against the Tigers. I also back a player amid a career-long on-base streak as my best bet, while ballpark factors enter the equation when I target an Orioles slugger at Sutter Health Park.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 29
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+357 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.89u | Harper ranks in the top four of NL batters in several offensive categories since July 26 |
| Tristan Peters to hit a home run (+880 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 2.2u | Peters became one of 14 rookies in MLB history with a five-game home run streak |
| Matt Olson to hit a home run (+279 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.7u | Olson is three home runs away from joining nine other active players with two or more 40-HR seasons |
| Colton Cowser to hit a home run (+471 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.18u | Cowser has a 1.010 OPS over the last 15 days |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.97 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+357)
Bryce Harper entered this series amid the longest on-base streak of his career (29 games). Since July 26, he ranked in the top four among NL players (min. 50 PA) in average, on-base percentage, wRC+, and fWAR, and was seventh in slugging.
Harper is three home runs shy of his sixth career 30-home run season, and should inch closer to that tonight. He faces Ryan Johnson, who has allowed a troubling 16 home runs in 67 ⅓ innings, including at least one in nine of his previous 10 starts (and two multi-home run games allowed in that span).
- Time: 10:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Johnson's home run struggles
Ryan Johnson has allowed a 2.15 HR/9 rate, which would be the worst in the Majors if he had enough innings to qualify (Aaron Nola's 2.01 HR/9 rate is the worst among qualified pitchers).
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Tristan Peters (+880)
Tristan Peters entered this series having hit home runs in five consecutive games, becoming the eighth player in franchise history to accomplish that feat. That streak was also tied for the longest by a rookie in the modern era (start of 1900).
Peters and Munetaka Murakami are big reasons why the White Sox entered yesterday with an MLB-high 60 home runs from rookies, while the Blue Jays were a distant second (42). The duo are also the first pair of rookie teammates with a five-game home run streak in the same season in the modern era.
Bailey Ober has allowed three home runs in his last two home starts, and is on pace to finish a third month with a 4.64 ERA or worse.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+279)
Matt Olson’s 37 home runs rank second in the Majors. He is seeking to become the 10th active player with two or more 40-home run seasons.
Since start of 2021 among players with a minimum of 1500 plate appearances, Olson ranks first in games, fifth in home runs, second in RBI, second in total bases, eighth in slugging, and sixth in WAR. His .875 slugging percentage to straightaway and the pull side is the fourth-highest.
My biggest reason for loving this wager is how hot Olson has run late the last two seasons. He logged a 135 wRC+ last August and improved that to 139 this year. He is a slugger worth keeping an eye on in September after his eye-popping wRC+ last year.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Colton Cowser (+471)
The Athletics pitching staff ranks dead last in most categories, and those flaws are only exacerbated at one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums (Sutter Health Park). They entered this series allowing an MLB-high 48 home runs in home games since the start of July, while the next worst was the Rockies staff at Coors Field (41).
Though I had my eye on Pete Alonso’s home run odds as he entered this series ranked first in the Majors in average and home runs since Aug. 9, Colton Cowser’s odds are the better value play. Cowser would set a single-month high with a fifth home run in August, and he entered the series with a 1.010 OPS over the last 15 days.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+357)
- Tristan Peters to hit a home run (+850)
- Matt Olson to hit a home run (+279)
- Colton Cowser to hit a home run (+471)
Best odds: +93854 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 93.9u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 247-405-1 | +46.70 units ✅ | +11.5% ✅ |
| Player props | 150-332 | +29.63 units ✅ | +12.7% ✅ |
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