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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Nelson Snap Winless Drought?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: May 29, 2023 9:05 AM EDT • 3 min 52 sec read.

We're treated to an 11-game Memorial Day Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.

Luis Garcia recorded six hits in a game this weekend, becoming the second player in Washington Nationals franchise history to do so and the youngest overall in 58 years.

Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer recorded his first career win at Coors Field, and the Chicago Cubs’ run-scoring streak ended when they were shut out Friday, which marked their longest such season-opening streak since 1898.

So, what's in store around Major League Baseball this week?

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via DraftKings, BetRivers, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s MLB schedule and odds

  • Cleveland Guardians (+125)vs. Baltimore Orioles (-145)
  • Texas Rangers (-170) vs. Detroit Tigers (+145)
  • Kansas City Royals (+175) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-205)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (-130) vs. Chicago Cubs (+110)
  • Colorado Rockies (+165) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-195)
  • Minnesota Twins (+105) vs. Houston Astros (-125)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) vs. San Francisco Giants (-140)
  • Atlanta Braves (-240) vs. Oakland Athletics (+200)
  • Los Angeles Angels (+115) vs. Chicago White Sox (-135)
  • Washington Nationals (+200) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-240)
  • New York Yankees (+120) vs. Seattle Mariners (-140)

Monday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Tyler Wells Under 4.5 strikeouts (-128 via FanDuel) vs. Guardians ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-115 via DraftKings) vs. Nationals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Ryne Nelson to record a win (+155 via DraftKings) vs. Rockies ⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Twins (+110 via BetRivers) vs. Astros ⭐⭐⭐

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Monday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Tyler Wells Under 4.5 strikeouts vs. Guardians (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Baltimore Orioles righty Tyler Wells started May with back-to-back starts of four strikeouts but has since struck out at least seven in three straight starts, running his K/9 rate in May to 9.96. However, Wells’ 4.07 xERA compared to his 3.47 actual ERA suggests he is due for regression. This is especially true from a strikeout perspective, as his velocity is down on every pitch except for his cutter (which he throws only 17.7% of the time), which has us expecting his strikeout percentage to end up closer to his career-low 18% from last year than the 24.8% rate he's pitching to now.

This is an inflated number given Wells’ recent strikeout success, but we are making the Under a three-star play given that the Cleveland Guardians have the second-lowest strikeout rate (19.3%) of any team in the majors.

Among our best sports betting apps, FanDuel charges the least vig for this wager, as Caesars and DraftKings are at -135 and -140, respectively.

Player prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases vs. Nationals (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Freddie Freeman visits a familiar NL East foe from his days with the Atlanta Braves. He enters the series with a 17-game hitting streak, batting .441 (30-for-68) with 18 RBIs, and he's increased his OPS from .822 to .983 in that span. Freeman has had success against Washington Nationals starter Trevor Williams, going 5-for-13 with just two strikeouts.

This is only a three-star play, as just one of Freeman’s five hits against Williams has gone for extra bases. But given that he has recorded multi-hit games 12 times during his hitting streak, Freeman can easily go over his total bases prop with another multi-hit day.

Bettors will save as much as $10 making this wager at DraftKings, as Caesars is higher on Freeman’s prop at -125 odds.

Player prop: Ryne Nelson to record win vs. Rockies (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Ryne Nelson is winless in his last eight starts while pitching to a 5.05 ERA in that span. However, he has allowed just one earned run in his previous 11 1/3 innings pitched and is due for regression from a wins perspective, given that the team has recorded victories in his last three starts.

Nelson’s only career start against the Colorado Rockies came at Coors Field when he was tagged for six earned runs in four innings. However, we expect Nelson to fare much better in this start against a Rockies lineup that ranks 29th in wRC+ overall and has the worst on-base percentage (.299) of any National League team in road games.

Considering the Rockies are an NL-worst 9-16 on the road and are four games under .500 against teams with a winning record, we are getting good value at DraftKings among our best sports betting sites, as Caesars is lower at +139 odds for this same wager.

Monday’s MLB game picks

Upset: Twins ML vs. Astros (+110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

The Houston Astros are 14-3 in their last 17 games but have a run differential of just plus-13 in games against teams other than the lowly Oakland Athletics in that span. They enter the day 4.5 games better than the Minnesota Twins, but a big reason is their 6-3 compared to Minnesota’s poor 4-10 record in one-run games.

Twins righty Sonny Gray has not had the most success against Houston, allowing a .302/.366/.387 slash line in 63 combined at-bats to current Astros hitters. But though the batting average is high, the Astros have not done much damage, with just three of their 19 hits going for extra bases. Gray has done a great job of keeping the ball in the yard, not allowing a home run in 10 consecutive starts spanning 56 innings. Thus, it will be difficult for Houston to score runs against a pitcher who does not allow the long ball, especially since he ranks in the top fifth of all pitchers in xBA and xSLG.

BetRivers and WynnBet are the only two sportsbooks one can find the Twins as high as +110, and we would play the underdogs down to +100.

MLB best bets made 5/29/2023 at 7:15 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.