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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Senga’s Home Dominance Continue?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 4, 2023 10:28 AM EDT • 4 min 38 sec read.

Eight teams vie for series sweeps as another exciting week in Major League Baseball continues. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

The longest active winning streak in baseball belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who had used four consecutive victories to go three games over .500. On the American League side, the Texas Rangers look to complete a sweep of the Seattle Mariners, and are the only team to have won eight or more games in their last 10.  

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sunday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • St. Louis Cardinals (-150) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+130)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (-115) vs. Boston Red Sox (-105) 
  • Philadelphia Phillies (-165) vs. Washington Nationals (+140)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+110) vs. New York Mets (-130)
  • Oakland Athletics (+190) vs. Miami Marlins (-225)
  • Milwaukee Brewers (-115) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-105)
  • Los Angeles Angels (+125) vs. Houston Astros (-145)
  • Colorado Rockies (+115) vs. Kansas City Royals (-135)
  • Cleveland Guardians (+140) vs. Minnesota Twins (-165)
  • Detroit Tigers (+150) vs. Chicago White Sox (-175)
  • Seattle Mariners (+125) vs. Texas Rangers (-145)
  • Baltimore Orioles (-110) vs. San Francisco Giants (-110)
  • Atlanta Braves (+110) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)
  • Chicago Cubs (-110) vs. San Diego Padres (-110)
  • New York Yankees (+130) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)

Sunday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Kodai Senga Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-120 via DraftKings) vs. Blue Jays ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 RBIs (+120 via FanDuel) vs. Nationals ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Zac Gallen to not record a win (OFF) vs. Braves ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Athletics-Marlins Under 8 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Sunday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Kodai Senga Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Blue Jays (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kodai Senga is coming off his most dominant start of the season, holding the Philadelphia Phillies to just one hit over seven innings. It was the first time he recorded more than 18 outs in his MLB career, and it was also the first time he did not walk a single batter (Senga had three-plus walks in eight of his first nine starts). Given that the Blue Jays are a free-swinging team that ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in walk rate (8.4%), we do not expect Senga to be burned by a lack of command Sunday.

This is a confident four-star play, as Senga’s splits at Citi Field are off the charts. He is 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA in five home starts and has allowed just one home run in those 30 innings. It has also been difficult to generate rallies without free passes against Senga, as he has allowed a minuscule .136 OBA at home compared to a .287 OBA on the road.

The Under has cashed in each of the New York Mets’ last six home games and we expect Senga to do his part in ensuring it happens a seventh straight time. Bettors save some money making this wager at DraftKings, as Caesars is juiced to -127 for the Under. 

Player prop: Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Nationals (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Philadelphia Phillies have moved Kyle Schwarber around the lineup this year, giving him at-bats anywhere from first to fifth in the batting order. Thus, this becomes a more confident four-star play if he hits fifth behind Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos, who are a combined 13-for-35 (.371) with eight extra-base hits against the Washington Nationals' Trevor Williams. 

Schwarber has hit fifth in 21 games this year and has compiled his second-best on-base and slugging percentage hitting out of that spot while accumulating 14 of his 27 RBIs. Schwarber is slashing .323/.432/.774 with four home runs in 31 career at-bats against Williams, so he might not need any traffic on the basepaths ahead of him to drive in runs.

With DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet all at +115 for Schwarber to drive in a run, the best value can be found at FanDuel.

Player prop: Zac Gallen to not record a win vs. Braves (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐

Zac Gallen and Spencer Strider have separated themselves as the two clear frontrunners for the National League Cy Young award. And this qualifies as a bold play, given how dominant Gallen has been, especially at home.

Gallen is 10-1 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last 12 home starts, which per OptaSTATS, makes him the first MLB pitcher in 94 years to record 10-plus wins while posting an ERA and WHIP of under 0.70 in a 12-start home stretch. However, none of Gallen’s six home starts this year has been against the top 14 offenses, and three have come against the three worst-scoring teams in the National League.

We expect an Atlanta Braves team with the best run differential (+60) and best road record (19-10) in the NL to battle Gallen, especially since Mike Soroka should look sharper after shaking off the rust from his first start in nearly three seasons.

This is a three-star play, given that Arizona’s expected W/L record is three games worse than its actual record. Caesars and DraftKings are the two sportsbooks that typically offer this prop, and we will be looking to play the “no” that Gallen will not record a win at anything at -160 or shorter odds.

Sunday’s MLB game picks

Total: Athletics-Marlins Under 8 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The gap between the Oakland Athletics’ MLB-worst 6.70 ERA and the 29th-worst ERA, the Colorado Rockies (5.20), is bigger than the gap between the Rockies and the fifth-best team in ERA. However, if there is one pitcher on the staff that should inspire confidence, it is Paul Blackburn, who allowed one run in four innings in his first start of the season against the Braves on Monday.

Blackburn registered a 30% called strikes and whiffs rate and induced 12 whiffs on 81 pitches. That has us confident he can shut down a Miami Marlins offense that has been held to four or fewer earned runs in 16 of their last 22 home games.

Additionally, while Sandy Alcantara has allowed four-plus runs in three of four starts, he has allowed a .210 OBA in six home starts. He should have no problem limiting an Oakland offense that is dead-last in the majors with a 44 wRC+ over the last 14 days (for comparison’s sake, the 29th-worst team has a 62 wRC+ in that span).

We do not mind paying slightly extra juice at DraftKings to back the Under, as it is the only sportsbook offering a line of higher than 7.5 runs.

MLB best bets made 6/4/2023 at 7:46 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.