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Pitcher Lance Lynn of the St. Louis Cardinals looks at the baseball before throwing a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and we offer our top MLB player props and best bets based on the best NFL odds.
Pitcher Lance Lynn of the St. Louis Cardinals looks at the baseball before throwing a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images via AFP.

It's getaway day in Major League Baseball, leading to far fewer games than normal, but we're still offering our top MLB player props and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.

It's a light schedule on Thursday, with only six games on tap. Unfortunately, those looking to watch any of the World Series odds favorites are out of luck. But there are still some exciting games!

The action starts with Game 1 of a doubleheader between the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets, who have been rained out for two straight days and will try to remember how to play baseball when the first pitch is (hopefully) thrown at 12:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field. Featured in those two matchups will be American League Rookie of the Year odds contender Colt Keith.  

We then get a trio of afternoon games, with a showdown between AL Central rivals highlighting that part of the slate. The Cleveland Guardians visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field, with the first pitch expected at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Two more AL Central teams close out the day when the Chicago White Sox travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch for the day's last game is expected at 7:40 p.m. ET.

Here are our MLB player props and best bets for Thursday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB best bets

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Thursday’s MLB player props

Tanner Bibee Under 6.5 strikeouts (-125 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsUnder 6.5 (-125)Under 6.5 (-125)Under 6.5 (-128)Under 6.5 (-131)Under 6.5 (-130)

Game info: Guardians vs. Twins| Moneyline: Twins (-150 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-105)/Under 7.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee burst onto the scene in 2023 while managing a 2.98 ERA across 142 innings. However, he didn't do that because of an especially high strikeout rate. Bibee managed just one punchout per inning during his first start of 2024, and 11 total hits and walks forced him out after just four innings.

He gets the chance to rebound against a Minnesota Twins team that owned the worst strikeout rate in the majors during 2023 at 26.6%. To its credit, Minnesota has made serious strides in that department early this campaign while posting the 12th-best rate (22.4%) through its first five games.

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The walks were obviously alarming in Bibee's first start, and this isn't exactly a plus matchup. That's likely why he's projected for just 5.42 strikeouts on Thursday, more than one and a half below the seven he'd need to clear this line. Based on that projection, we're getting around 25% positive expected value on this bet.

As you can see, most of our best sports betting sites offer similar odds on this Under, with DraftKings and FanDuel pricing it at -125. Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is at -148 after opening at -123.

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Lance Lynn Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsUnder 5.5 (-125)Under 5.5 (-116)Under 5.5 (-128)Under 5.5 (-115)Under 5.5 (-125)

Game info: Marlins vs. Cardinals | Moneyline: Cardinals (-150 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via Betway | Start time: 4:15 p.m. ET

Lance Lynn looked shaky at times during his first start back with the St. Louis Cardinals, but he still didn't allow an earned run against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers. He recorded 11.25 strikeouts per nine innings in that affair, but the veteran was only able to last four frames.

Lynn has always hovered around a strikeout per inning, and he can generally go deep into games. But perhaps Father Time is catching up with him even more following a poor 2023 campaign.

The hurler faces a stiff test from a strikeout perspective on Thursday, as the Miami Marlins struck out at the eighth-best rate in 2023. They're closer to the middle of the pack this season, but the club still doesn't offer a plus matchup for strikeouts.

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Lynn is projected to record 4.89 strikeouts on Thursday, roughly in line with what he produced during his first start. Based on that projection, we're getting nearly 20% +EV by betting on these -115 odds via Caesars.

FanDuel is offering nearly identical odds and would also make for a good destination for this bet. Most of our other best sports betting apps are more aligned with Pinnacle, which prices the Under at -132. Be sure to use our exclusive Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000 to get these enticing odds before it's too late!

Mike Soroka Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsOver 3.5 (+100)Over 3.5 (-115)Over 3.5 (-110)Over 3.5 (-119)Over 3.5 (-110)

Game info: White Sox vs. Royals | Moneyline: Royals (-180 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 7:40 p.m. ET  

Mike Soroka made his Chicago White Sox regular-season debut against another division rival, the Detroit Tigers, and he didn't look particularly good. The right-hander lasted five innings, allowing seven hits and walking three. The worst part, though - in terms of this bet - was that he didn't record a strikeout.

Soroka faces a Kansas City Royals team on Thursday that was around the middle of the league in terms of strikeout rate last season. It's in the same range thus far in 2024 with a nearly identical K percentage.

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We're making this bet mainly because Soroka's line is just too low compared to his projection. Across two of our trusted projection models, Soroka has an average total on Thursday of 4.44. That means we're getting better than 40% +EV on this bet based on DraftKings' +100 odds.

None of our other best sportsbooks are offering at least even money on this Over, and Pinnacle is at -109. The only worry with this bet is that it runs contrary to sharp action, but we'll trust our projections when the expected value is this high.

Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 stolen bases (+280 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365BetRivers
OddsOver 0.5 (+260)Over 0.5 (+230)Over 0.5 (+250)N/AOver 0.5 (+265)Over 0.5 (+280)

Game info: White Sox vs. Royals | Moneyline: Royals (-180 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 7:40 p.m. ET    

Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is arguably the fastest player in the league, so the only thing standing in his way of racking up steals is a lack of opportunity. That certainly hasn't been an issue this season, as he's already attempted four steals through six games.

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On Thursday, Witt's average stolen base projection is 0.28. Meanwhile, these +280 odds via BetRivers have an implied probability of about 26%. It's not as much value as I'd usually look for when offering my MLB best bets, but with a limited slate, I have to look for any potential edge. 

BetRivers' price is significantly better than those at our other sites with the best sportsbook promos, the biggest reason I like this Over. On a $10 bet, we're getting an additional $1.50 on a win by playing this Over at BetRivers rather than bet365, which offers the second-best price at +265.

MLB best bets made Thursday at 8 a.m. ET.

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