Astros vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds & Picks for Tonight (Thursday, Sept. 11)
I’m breaking down my Astros vs. Rays prediction with veteran starter Drew Rasmussen taking the mound versus rookie opener Miguel Ullola today.
The Rays are a sizeable -170 moneyline favorite for this one as they attempt to hold onto the top spot in the American League. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on MLB.TV from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla.
⚾ Astros vs. Rays picks & odds today
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
| Over 7.5 (-118 via DraftKings) | 2.36 → 2 | Houston has mashed Rasmussen and is expected to use a pair of inexperienced prospects on the bump today. |
| Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+164 via DraftKings) | 1.5 → 2.46 | Pena’s .875 SLG versus Rasmussen makes him a great target for an XBH – or a pair of singles. |
| Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+650 via bet365) | 0.5 → 3.25 | Diaz has 22 home runs on the year and is far pricier to go yard at other sportsbooks. |
Total wagered: 4.36 units | Max profit: 7.71 units
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🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Rays?
Rasmussen has an impressive 2.88 ERA, which is supported by a solid 3.11 xERA. However, his last outing versus Houston saw him post a 9.00 ERA on the day. With the Astros owning a slight advantage in xwOBA (.312 to .306), I’m willing to trust the road team to jump on a pitcher they’ve knocked around previously.
Score Prediction: Astros 5, Rays 4
💰 Astros vs. Rays prediction & best bet
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Over 7.5 (-120)
I like the Astros to win outright, but even if they can’t pull off the upset, we should see plenty of offense from both sides. Houston will start a solid prospect in RHP Miguel Ullola but will then likely turn to RHP Ethan Pecko for bulk relief. Pecko has a 5.19 ERA and 6.55 xERA. Yikes!
Both squads are below-average units in xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average, but this total is on the lower side for this matchup. Neither squad has a particularly impressive bullpen, either, with both Houston (4.07 bullpen ERA) and Tampa Bay (4.12) below average in the metric.
📡 SBR Edge: Houston can mash Rasmussen
Although Drew Rasmussen has looked impressive this year, the top of Houston’s order has tagged him repeatedly: just look at the slash lines of Jeremy Pena (.500/.600/.875), Yordan Alvarez (.333/.333/.667), and Jose Altuve (.333/.333/.833).
🔥 Best Astros vs. Rays player prop bet
Jeremy Pena Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+164)
After a red-hot July, Pena cooled off in August and is continuing to underperform in September. That should change tonight against Rasmussen, who he has knocked around for four hits, including two extra-base hits, in 10 plate appearances.
Despite his recent slump, Pena sports an impressive .276/.325/.478 slash line versus RHPs. His xSLG versus Rasmussen’s top offerings, the cutter (.671), 4-seamer (.525), and sinker (.448), all point to value – as does the fact that sharper sportsbooks have this wager at odds of +126.
💣 Astros vs. Rays home run prediction
Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+650)
Ever-consistent Yandy Diaz has 22 long balls on the year with 22.9 xHR and 23 hits that would’ve cleared the fences at Tropicana Field. You’d think his home run odds would be shorter, so it’s unsurprising that they are +500 or so at most other books.
With 14 of Diaz’s home runs coming versus RHPs – and 16 coming at his home park – he is a solid target versus the pair of inexperienced Houston RHPs expected to take the mound. His monstrous .308/.371/.462 slash line versus same-handed hurlers points to value on other prop markets, too.
📺 How to watch Astros vs. Rays
- Date: Friday, Sept. 11
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Astros starter: Miguel Ullola (0-0, 3.86 ERA)
- Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.88 ERA)
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