2024 Canadian Open Long-Shot Picks: Sleepers to Win at Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Homegrown hero Nick Taylor defied the odds to win the 2023 national tournament north of the board, and we look for who will follow suit with our 2024 Canadian Open long-shot picks and predictions for Hamilton Golf and Country Club based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
Rory McIlroy is a prohibitive betting favorite by the RBC Canadian Open odds. The handful of other top golfers in the 156-man field follow closely behind. We're looking for a little more profit (and excitement) with our Canadian Open long-shot picks and sleepers for Hamilton Golf and Country Club.
The course underwent significant renovations since it last hosted the PGA Tour during McIlroy's seven-stroke victory in 2019. As such, very few in this field have logged any meaningful experience with this version of the layout. That helps open the door for a long-shot winner at the petite 7,084-yard, par-70 venue when assessing the odds from our best sportsbooks in Canada.
To accompany our Canadian Open expert picks, here are our top Canadian Open long-shot picks.
Canadian Open long-shot picks
- Matt Wallace (+6600 via Betway)
- Sam Stevens (+10000 via Betway)
- Chez Reavie (+25000 via Betway)
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Matt Wallace
Wallace is about 14 months removed from his first and only PGA Tour victory. The four-time winner on the European/DP World Tour enters this week at No. 88 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following an inspiring run that started with a T-4 in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. It also included a T-20 in the Myrtle Beach Classic, and he finished with a T-43 in the PGA Championship.
Wallace has averaged 0.59 strokes gained: around-the-green across his last 20 measured rounds, and he's been very strong with his putter. The short game will be the key at the new-look Hamilton Golf and Country Club, so I'm not worried at all about Wallace's 0.18 strokes lost per round off-the-tee over that same span.
The Englishman ranks slightly below the PGA Tour average in birdie-or-better percentage from this week's key distance of inside 125 yards. But that ranking considerably improves when judging only against this week's much weaker field.
Odds: +6600 (bet $10 to win $660)
Sam Stevens
Like with Wallace, we're zeroing in on Stevens' excellent short game. Stevens has been averaging 0.60 SG: around-the-green and 0.47 SG: putting across his last 15 measured rounds. He's even been strong off the tee, with only his approach play hurting him lately.
Those struggles are largely negated at the short Hamilton Golf and Country Club. Despite his overall issues on approach to the green, Stevens ranks 52nd on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from inside 125 yards.
The 129th-ranked golfer in the world had made six consecutive cuts before last week's missed weekend in the Charles Schwab Challenge. His best finish during that stretch was a T-10 in the Myrtle Beach Classic.
Odds: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,000)
Chez Reavie
Reavie also perfectly fits the mold of a golfer we're looking for this week. He ranks 60th on the Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from inside 125 yards, and Reavie is fourth in this field in SG: around-the-green across his last 15 rounds with an average of 0.69 strokes gained.
The diminutive Reavie is also routinely much more accurate than long off the tee, and that's the far more important factor this week.
Our Ontario sports betting sites are undervaluing the shorter hitters ahead of the 2024 Canadian Open, but bettors stand to capitalize while backing the right golfer to get hot around the greens.
Odds: +25000 (bet $10 to win $2,500)
Canadian Open predictions
- Canadian Open expert picks
- Canadian Open long-shot picks
- Canadian Open odds
2024 Canadian Open odds: Favorites
(Odds via Betway as of Wednesday at 7:45 a.m. ET)
| Name | Betway |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +400 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1600 |
| Shane Lowry | +1800 |
| Sahith Theegala | +1800 |
| Corey Conners | +2200 |
| Alex Noren | +2500 |
| Cameron Young | +2500 |
| Sam Burns | +2500 |
| Tom Kim | +2800 |
| Adam Scott | +3300 |
Recent Canadian Open winners
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par | Course |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Nick Taylor | +6000 | -17 (playoff) | Oakdale |
| 2022 | Rory McIlroy | +900 | -19 (playoff) | St. George's |
| 2021 | Canceled | |||
| 2020 | Canceled | |||
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | +1000 | -22 | Hamilton |
| 2018 | Dustin Johnson | +550 | -23 | Glen Abbey |
| 2017 | Jhonattan Vegas | Field (+240) | -21 (playoff) | Glen Abbey |
| 2016 | Jhonattan Vegas | +8000 | -12 | Glen Abbey |
| 2015 | Jason Day | +800 | -17 | Glen Abbey |
| 2014 | Tim Clark | +5000 | -17 | Royal Montreal |
Historical odds via golfodds.com
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