British Open Round 4 Odds & Expert Picks: Brown Chasing Long-Shot Victory

The stage is set for a thrilling finish at Royal Troon after yet another difficult round of golf was completed on Saturday, and now, we break down the British Open Round 4 odds with our expert picks from our best golf betting sites.

The rain poured during Round 3 without a ton of wind, and now, Xander Schauffele finds himself the betting favorite for the latest British Open odds. Sunday’s forecast calls for dry conditions and wind gusts up to 22 mph in the late afternoon.

Billy Horschel and Xander Schauffele were the best performers among the final pairings in Round 3, each recording 2-under outings on Saturday, with Horschel grabbing the solo lead at 4-under heading into Round 4.

Other golfers with strong production on Saturday included Thriston Lawrence, Sam Burns, and Russell Henley, while World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is only two strokes back of the lead. 

British Open Round 4 odds

Odds from our best golf betting sites as of Saturday at 5:30 p.m. ET | 🔥 = best available odds | ❄️ = worst available odds.

British Open Round 4 picks

Pick confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Russell Henley vs. Sam Burns (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We’re targeting Henley against Burns in the 2-ball prop market for Round 4. Both golfers played exceptionally well on Saturday to climb into contention, but Henley had to play in the elements a bit longer than his counterpart.

Burns’ 6-under outing was outstanding, while Henley turned in a 5-under-par performance. He showcased his talent off the tee and on approach. Henley ranks seventh in strokes gained on approach this week while sitting 15th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. 

Burns' putter has been the difference-maker, as he’s third in SG: putting this week. Burns has been solid on approach too, ranking 25th in strokes gained metrics, but off the tee and around the green is where he shows vulnerability. 

In windy conditions, Burns struggled in earlier rounds. I prefer Henley’s ball-striking over Burns’ putting prowess, so with oddsmakers giving us a true pick’em at -110 odds for either side, I’m recommending a one-unit stake placed on Henley to turn in the lower scorecard in Round 4.

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Billy Horschel vs. Thriston Lawrence (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Perhaps no golfer had a more impressive front nine on Saturday than Lawrence, who recorded six birdies, including four in a row, before slowing down on the back nine. Lawrence ranks first in SG: off-the-tee this week, so his driver is a weapon. The South African is also 14th in SG: putting and 18th in SG: around the green. His irons have been an issue.

Horschel is the solo leader heading into Sunday after a fantastic performance in Round 3. Yes, he only went 2-under, but he played later in the day when the rain was pouring hardest. Horschel’s irons and scrambling skills were on full display, and he was only a few inches away from holing a couple of birdies on the back nine to inflate his lead over the field.

Horschel ranks first in total strokes gained this week, which is exactly what we want to target in this 2-ball matchup. He’s also 17th in SG: off-the-tee, sixth in SG: approach, and 14th in SG: around-the-green. Putting, which is normally Horschel’s strength, has been his worst area at Royal Troon.

Let’s stake one unit on Horschel to win this 2-ball matchup against Lawrence at even odds. Keep in mind, this is a prop that includes a tie as an option (+800), so we need Horschel to wind up with a lower score than Lawrence on Sunday. 

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%

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Shane Lowry vs. Adam Scott (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lowry’s disastrous 6-over Round 3 score has oddsmakers fading him heading into a Round 4 pairing against Adam Scott. We need to use this to our advantage. 

Scott played well on Saturday, going 5-under, but he was a beneficiary of light winds and minimal rain earlier in the day. Scott ranks 77th in SG: off-the-tee, which could rear its head with prevailing wind gusts on Sunday.

Lowry ranks fifth in SG: approach and 30th in SG: putting, while sitting top-40 in SG: off-the-tee. His scrambling has been bad, but I’ll back the better iron player and putter in these conditions at even odds. 

Best odds: +100 via Caesars | Implied probability: 50%

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