Week 7 NCAAF Best Bets: Moneyline, ATS, and Over/Under Plays

We are back with our top picks against the spread, total, and moneyline college football picks. Let’s see if we can bust the books as we analyze these premium plays and go for the sweep this week!

Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Saturday, October 16, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium

The Saturday slate of games starts out with a bang as the 10th ranked Spartans hit the road to take on their Big 10 rivals from Indiana. Michigan State enters this matchup undefeated but the college football odds at all of the best online sportsbooks have them installed as just 4 ½ point favorites against a sub .500 team.

https://youtu.be/i4IEaAZXnyE

And more to the point from a betting perspective, MSU is killing it at the windows, currently, 5-1 against the number while the Hoosiers are a dismal 1-4 ATS. Things that make you go, hmmm.

Well, to be fair, Michigan State is playing a conference rival in hostile territory so there’s that but let’s also not forget that Indiana will likely be without their starting quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., who separated his shoulder two weeks ago in their 24-0 loss to Penn State, and instead will go with junior Jack Tuttle. Even more, a reason to align with Michigan State, right?

https://twitter.com/MSU_Football/status/1447665875268640769?s=20

Yet, that line is curiously low and there’s even the revenge factor the Spartans have going for them after getting shutout, 24-0, last season by the Hoosiers. All of this going for MSU, yet, the sharps have bought this one down from an opener of -5 to -4 ½ as of this Tuesday writing.

Something’s a bit fishy and it could have something to do with a dinged-up MSU roster and the fact that they could very well be looking ahead to their next game on the schedule, a date with No. 8 Michigan. We could also consider that Tuttle and the Indiana boys have had two weeks to prepare for this one and have a decent enough defense that could give the Spartans problems.

Something’s off, and I think we’ve touched upon a few reasons why which gives me enough confidence to eschew the points and go for the whole enchilada in this one – an upset win by Indiana!

NCAAF Pick: Indiana +170

Auburn Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, October 16, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Razorback Stadium

Here is another good one early in the afternoon that features a pair of 4-2 SEC rivals but we won’t care who wins or loses, covers or doesn’t, we are getting down on the total in this one. These two teams predicate their offenses around the rushing game and that means time chewed off the clock.

Auburn is ranked 32nd in rushing yards (206.5) while Arkansas is ranked 9th in that category (245.7). The Razorbacks are ranked 7th against the pass which should tamp down this score all the way around. For my NCAAF pick, I look for a grindy, ground-and-pound kind of game with scoring in the low to mid 40’s which means the 53 ½ mighty good to me!

NCAAF Pick: Under 53 ½ (-110)

https://twitter.com/CycloneFB/status/1446837863123861509?s=20

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Saturday, October 16, 2021 - 07:30 PM EDT at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium

Sometimes the win/loss record doesn’t paint the entire picture of a team. Case in point, Kansas State, although they are 0-2 in the conference and 3-2 overall, this is a team that has looked decent over their last 1 ½ games starting with their shutout in the second half of Oklahoma State followed by a gritty effort against one of the best teams in the nation, Oklahoma, in which they lost 37-31 but scored 14 fourth-quarter points.

This sets them up to have a big game against a very stout Iowa State team. The Wildcats’ quarterback, Skylar Thompson, is starting to feel it and I predict he will turn heads in this game while the run-stop unit on the other side of the ball will make the sledding rough for the Cyclones’ running backs. Let’s back the Cats with the points and cash a ticket!

NCAAF Pick: Kansas State +6 ½ (-108)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.