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EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 02: The Michigan State Spartans celebrate their win against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Spartan Stadium on October 02, 2021 in East Lansing, Michigan. Nic Antaya/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Nic Antaya / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Last week was another good one in our college football picks as we cashed with Louisiana Tech plus the bundle over NC State while Mississippi State upset Texas A&M as a +240 moneyline winner! Our lone loss was over in the Duke/North Carolina tilt but we still wound up plus money and that’s all that counts. Let’s go for the sweep this week!

Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at SHI Stadium

If we look at the stats, we see these two teams are somewhat similar. Michigan State scores an average of 37.8 points per game and surrenders 20.6 while Rutgers produces 29.8 points on average and allows 21.2 points per contest. So, you might say, advantage MSU, considering their offense scores eight points more per contest. Not a mismatch by any stretch and if we look at the college football odds at all of the best online sportsbooks, we see that the Spartans are a solid five-point road favorite across the board at the time of this Tuesday writing.

Okay, so why lay the lumber with Michigan State if there doesn’t appear to be a clear-cut advantage in the betting line? Both have approximately the same turnover differential (+1.0 to +0.8) and are 4-1 against the number.

But everything Rutgers does, Michigan State does it better and will have a big advantage on an often-overlooked aspect, special teams. The Spartans’ special teams’ units are a big reason why their offense often starts in excellent field position. Their average yards per kick and punt return are 26.4 and 32.8 yards, respectively, nearly double that of Rutgers.

It sounds a bit overwrought, pinning a bet on special teams but that’s really not what I’m doing. It is merely just another reason why MSU will cover because their passing game is better, their rushing game is much better, the team is deeper, more talented, and definitely a touchdown or better regardless of the venue.

College Football Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Baylor Bears

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at McLane Stadium

The West Virginia offense is stuck in neutral but their defense is clicking on all cylinders. Meanwhile, Baylor’s offense has been decent this season but their defense has been even better. I’m not sure there will be a whole lot of scoring in this game and the total looks tall enough for us to go low and be confident about it. Consider these trends below:

Under is 5-0 in the Mountaineers' last 5 conference games.Under is 7-1 in the Mountaineers' last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 10-2 in Mountaineers last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games in October.

College Football Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Quarterback Gerry Bohanon #11 of the Baylor Bears in action. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Duke Blue Devils

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 12:30 PM EDT at Wallace Wade Stadium

Believe it or not, we are getting real value on this game as the public is fading Duke fast and furiously. The conventional wisdom goes something like this: Georgia Tech pulled a huge 45-22 upset of North Carolina as 14-point home dogs and Duke lost to North Carolina, 38-7, last week in hostile territory. Therefore, if Georgia Tech beat the Tar Heels by 23 then what in the world will they do to the Blue Devils?!

If it were only that simple. Duke will be fully prepared for this Georgia Tech squad that played their best game against a North Carolina squad that took them far too lightly and played at their very worst. Duke has won their last three meetings against Georgia Tech in games played in Durham and has a rushing attack that should keep the Yellow Jackets on their heels throughout. The oddsmakers are giving the Devils 3 ½ points but we don’t believe we will need any of them so why not take a moneyline flier on the home team against a conference foe?

College Football Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.