UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Picks College Football Week 5: Roadrunners Look to Control C-USA

Middle Tennessee hosts UTSA in the second of five Friday night college football games. Check out our top Middle Tennessee-UTSA picks below.

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners are 2-2 through a challenging non-conference schedule. They've beaten Army and Texas Southern but took losses to Houston and Texas. 

Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has won three consecutive games with wo against Power 5 teams. The Blue Raiders had been 0-20 in program history in contests against AP-ranked opponents before their 45-31 win over No. 25 Miami. Those previous 20 losses came by an average of 29.3 points per game.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 5 UTSA-Middle Tennessee game (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Game Info

Date: Friday, Sept. 30, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN
Location: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
Weather: 74 degrees, 13% chance of precipitation, 9-mph northeast wind

UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Odds

UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Odds Analysis

The Roadrunners have come down slightly from opening as 4.5-point favorites. The consensus line is -4 as of Friday morning, even with 76% of the tickets and 73% of the cash on UTSA to cover.

The total has soared up 3 points from the opening line of 62. Eighty-eight percent of the tickets account for 98% of the money on the Over as the line has been adjusted to 65.

UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Picks

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee ATS Pick

UTSA -4 (-110) ★★★

One would have thought Middle Tennessee would get more respect from oddsmakers after its potential program-changing win against Miami. However, UTSA received 14 of 22 first-place votes in the preseason C-USA poll. The team will now prove why it's the class of the conference.

UTSA has won three straight games against Middle Tennessee by an average of 12 points. Quarterback Frank Harris is six passing yards shy of leading the conference (1,310), and he also ranks second among all C-USA quarterbacks with a 157.8 rating. 

The Roadrunners' 2-2 record could be even better if they received a bounce or two during the three-overtime loss in their season opener against Houston. UTSA outgained Houston by 95 total yards, which was the Cougars' worst yardage differential since a 2021 game against East Carolina. 

Most of the players responsible for UTSA's production during a conference-title season in 2021 returned. That team also won a program-best 12 games. The Roadrunners are the more battle-tested squad, and they're ready to separate from the rest of the competition in the conference.   

UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee O/U Pick

Under 63.5 (-110) ★★

UTSA ranks second among C-USA teams in total offense (478.5 yards per game) and scoring (37.0 points). But it's facing a stiff test from a Blue Raiders defense that's allowing just 342.8 yards per game (third in the conference), and is the only C-USA school giving up fewer than 108 yards per contest on the ground (93.0). The Blue Raiders' stout front will be able to commit fewer defenders to stopping the run, enabling them to drop more into coverage against Harris and his dangerous receivers.

Not to take anything away from Middle Tennessee's upset of Miami, but it scored in ways offensively that aren't sustainable. The Blue Raiders notched touchdowns on pass plays of 69, 71, and 98 yards while mixing in another 89-yard completion. Those four plays totaled more yards than the Hurricanes' defense allowed to Texas A&M the week prior.

Expect the Roadrunners to be on guard for explosive plays, and to force the Blue Raiders to move the ball more methodically through the air.

UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee Prop Pick

UTSA team total Over (OFF) ★★

The line for this prop hasn't been posted, but UTSA's implied team total is 33, and we would be happy to side with the Over. The Over is 7-0 during UTSA's last seven road games, and it's cashed during 10 of its last 11 overall.

The Roadrunners limited Middle Tennessee's Chase Cunningham to 9-of-18 passing in 2021 while allowing just 11 first downs. The Blue Raiders will struggle to sustain drives, leading to many UTSA possessions.

Where to Bet on UTSA-Middle Tennesse Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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UTSA-Middle Tennessee picks made 9/27/2022 at 7:20 a.m. ET