UCLA vs. California Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: College Football Week 1 Odds
My best UCLA vs. California prediction focuses on oddsmakers overvaluing Nico Iamaleava and a revamped UCLA roster against a pesky California team. UCLA is favored by 2.5 points despite this game being played at California Memorial Coliseum in Berkeley, Calif.
Below, I explain why UCLA's transfers aren't enough to make me trust the Bruins against a Cal team that may be better than it was a year ago. Saturday's 10:30 p.m. ET game will air on ESPN and stream on ESPN Unlimited.
🏈 UCLA vs. California picks & odds: Week 1
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| California +2.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 3u → 2.78u | Cal returns its starting quarterback and adds a solid running back for its home opener against a 3-9 team from last season. |
| Under 53.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.46u | UCLA had the 125th-ranked scoring offense last season and returns Nico Iamaleava, who threw for fewer than 2,000 yards. |
| Chase Hendricks to score a touchdown (+140 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.4u | Hendricks scored seven times last season, including once against Ohio State. |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4.32 units
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💰 UCLA vs. California prediction & best bet
California +2.5 (-108)
Last season, Iamaleava was horribly inconsistent, throwing for just 1,928 yards, 13 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, as UCLA finished 3-9. And while I understand that UCLA has 15 transfers starting on either offense or defense in Week 1, I can't help but feel that oddsmakers are overvaluing the Bruins on the road against a 7-5 team from a year ago.
California returns quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and adds former Washington running back Adam Mohammed. Mohammed ran for 108 yards against UCLA last year. I expect Cal to score plenty against a unit that ranked 127th in scoring defense last year.
Score prediction: California 27 UCLA 21
🙌 UCLA vs. California touchdown scorer prediction
Chase Hendricks to score a touchdown (+140)
Last season, Hendricks caught seven touchdowns while with Ohio. All three of Cal's starting wide receivers are transfers, but last year, Hendricks led all of them with 71 receptions and 1,037 yards. And if you're worried that his stats are inflated by competition, he hauled in a 67-yard touchdown against Ohio State.
UCLA had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last season, allowing 23 passing touchdowns, tied for 107th in the country.
🚀 UCLA vs. California same-game parlay
For this parlay, I'm willing to take a few risks. I really like Cal in this contest. Therefore, adding them on the moneyline is a no-brainer and helps inflate the odds of this parlay. Then, I'm going to take Mohammed to rush for at least 70 yards. Though Cal was a pass-first offense last year, running back Kendrick Raphael still rushed for at least 70 yards seven times. And Mohammed averaged 5.1 yards per carry against UCLA last year.
💵 UCLA vs. California SGP picks
- California
- Adam Mohammed 70+ rushing yards
Best odds: +276 via DraftKings (1u → 2.76u)
💵 My betting record for college football picks
All college football picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Aug. 29.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-9 | -7.04 units ❌ | -59.9% ❌ |
| Game picks | 1-1 | -0.59 units ❌ | -23.6%❌ |
| Player props | 1-6 | -4.95 units ❌ | -63.8% ❌ |
| Parlays | 0-2 | -1.50 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting UCLA vs. California: College football strategy
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions.
As a solo play, the price for Cal's moneyline simply isn't good enough to back over +2.5. Therefore, I'll make Cal +2.5 a 3-unit play, which is the largest number of units I'll risk at any time. That's how confident I am in the Golden Bears. As for the total, I don't have a good feel for it, so I'm wagering just 0.5 units on the Under. While I like Hendricks to score, I like Mohammed to rush for 70 yards even more, which is why the latter is in my parlay with the Cal moneyline.
📊 Live UCLA vs. California odds: Week 1
Our live UCLA vs. California odds update in real time.
📺 How to watch UCLA vs. California: Week 1
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 5
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Location: California Memorial Stadium (Berkeley, Calif.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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