Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction: College Football Week 4 Opening Odds & Early Pick

College Gameday is in town for this AP top 15 matchup between No. 1 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee, and my Texas vs. Tennessee early prediction expects a coming out party for the Volunteers’ freshman quarterback en route to a cover.

The opening odds have Texas as a 4.5-point betting favorite. Kickoff from Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., is set for noon ET on Saturday, airing on ABC.

🏈 Early Texas vs. Tennessee prediction: Week 4

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🟠 Tennessee +4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Bet size: 1 unit to win 0.91 units

Tennessee is flying under the radar entering this heavyweight SEC matchup, in large part because of how much of the country is unfamiliar with its quarterback. Everyone knows Arch Manning, especially after he led his team back from a 23-3 fourth-quarter deficit against Ohio State. But Faizon Brandon is just a freshman who earned the starting role after being ranked as the No. 3 pocket passer in the Class of 2026, and he has a great command of the Volunteers' offense thus far.

Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel’s up-tempo offense is difficult to prepare for, and Brandon has run it flawlessly with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But while Tennessee might be inexperienced at quarterback, it returned 22 more starts to its roster than Texas. That includes five of six offensive linemen who paved the way to a top-seven offensive SP+ rating a year ago.

Public money is likely to come in on the top-ranked team in the country, so I’ll likely be laddering the Volunteers with multiple wagers if and when they get bet up to +5.5 or higher.

📊 Texas vs. Tennessee odds & line movement: Week 4

See the latest college football odds.

Texas vs. Tennessee opening odds

• Moneyline: Texas -210 | Tennessee +175
• Spread: Texas -5.5 (-110) | Tennessee +5.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

Texas vs. Tennessee line movement

The lookahead line from June for this matchup was Texas -6.5, so it is a little surprising that the line has shortened since, especially with the Longhorns owning a win over Ohio State. The line got as low as -3.5 at DraftKings on Sunday night but was a full point higher at several other top sports betting sites as that movement was happening.

I’m comfortable backing the Volunteers at +4.5 and am doing so in case more sportsbooks follow DraftKings' movement to +3.5. But I’d also expect mid-to-late-week support on the Longhorns and will be scooping up any +5s or +5.5s that pop up. If this line ever gets to the key number of +6, I’d be more aggressive with my wagering with two-unit plays or more.

📺 How to watch Texas vs. Tennessee: Week 4

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 24
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, Tenn.)
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: YouTube TV