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Texas Tech vs. Baylor Week 13 Picks: Will Bears Blow Big 12 Title Shot?

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Texas Tech vs. Baylor Week 13 Picks: Will Bears Blow Big 12 Title Shot?
Quarterback Gerry Bohanon #11 of the Baylor Bears. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

Saturday’s Big 12 matchup with Texas Tech is a potential once-in-a-generation opportunity for Baylor. Find out where we lean in our Texas Tech versus Baylor picks.

While the Baylor men’s and women’s basketball teams are national powerhouses, the little private school in Waco, Texas, has reached just one football Big 12 Championship Game in school history and is yet to win a title.

That opportunity is possible Saturday if the No. 8 Bears beat visiting Texas Tech and get some help later Saturday from Stillwater, Oklahoma.

It’s not out of the question that Saturday will be the final game coached at Baylor for Dave Aranda. Texas Tech has already made a coaching change.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 13 matchup between Texas Tech and Baylor (Odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 27, 12 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Weather: cloudy with occasional rain showers, 58 degrees

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Odds Analysis

The spread opened as high as 15.5 but is down to -14 for the Bears, likely because of a QB injury. There is about a 75% lean on Baylor right now. The Bears are 10-0 straight up in their past 10 as at least 14-point favorites and 5-4-1 against the spread (2-0 this year). Texas Tech is 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS in its past 10 as at least a 14-point dog.

The total opened at 50.5 and is up to 52, which actually goes against why the spread has dropped. The Over is taking about a 70% lean.

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Picks

Baylor -14 (-110) ★★★
Under 52 points (-110) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Week 13 Picks

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Predictions

Baylor -14 (-110) ★★★

If your book still has this at -14, I would buy it down to -13.5 to be safe. It's worth the slightly added juice.

If Baylor wins this game and Oklahoma loses as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday night at Oklahoma State, the Bears will be in the Big 12 title game against the Cowboys. Baylor can't get there with a loss.

Could Saturday be the final game as Baylor coach for Aranda? If the school doesn't reach the conference title game, then it very well could be. There are rumors all over the place that Aranda will be named the next coach at LSU, where he previously served as defensive coordinator before taking the job in Waco. Nowadays, with the early recruiting window, most schools prefer to just let their coach go instead of allowing him to stay for a bowl game. Baylor can’t compete with the LSUs of the world when it comes to financials and prestige. It's sad but true.

Texas Tech fired coach Matt Wells a few weeks ago and has replaced him … with Aranda's former associate coach Joey McGuire. In an unusual move, McGuire joined Texas Tech's athletic department immediately, but he isn't serving as coach until after the Red Raiders' season ends. Texas Tech is already bowl eligible at 6-5, so the Red Raiders have little to play for Saturday.

I have to go with the vastly more motivated team here. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in its past five games against teams with a winning record. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its past six at home.

Under 52 points (-110) ★★★★

I'm a bit surprised the total has risen because Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon is no sure thing to play. He suffered a pulled hamstring in last Saturday's 20-10 win over Kansas State. That the junior left in the second quarter and couldn't return isn't a great sign.

Redshirt freshman Blake Shapen, a four-star recruit in the Class of 2020, took over for Bohanon and played pretty well in going 16-for-21 for 137 yards and 44 yards on five carries. The offensive game plan was definitely more conservative with him in. I still like Baylor at -14 with Shapen but love the Under if he starts.

Baylor's defense is holding opponents to 12.1 points per game below their scoring averages in all other games. That unit has forced a turnover in 19 consecutive games and the Bears are +14 in turnovers in 20 games under Aranda.

Texas Tech was shutout 23-0 at home by Oklahoma State last Saturday and the Red Raiders are starting a freshman QB in Donovan Smith. He was an ugly 9-of-29 passing for 83 yards against one of the nation's top defenses and will face another top defensive unit. Receiver Myles Price (35-451-2) will be a game-time decision, while fellow wideout J.J. Sparkman (5-57-1) and tight end Travis Koontz (14-148-3) will play after missing the Oklahoma State game.

The Under is 5-2 in Texas Tech's past seven after a loss and 4-1 in Baylor's past five versus teams with a winning record.

SEE ALSO: All NCAAF picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Texas Tech-Baylor picks made 11/23/2021 at 7:55 p.m. ET