The annual Bedlam game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State has more meaning than usual on Saturday as the Sooners need a win to reach another Big 12 Championship Game. We make our top Oklahoma-Oklahoma State picks.
The Big 12 Championship Game is next Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, and it’s quite possible that matchup is a rematch of this Saturday’s Bedlam rivalry game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. They rank 10th and seventh, respectively, in the College Football Playoff ranking coming into Week 13.
Okie State is in the conference title game for the first time. Since the Big 12 title game was brought back in 2017, the Sooners not only played in them all but won all three. They will return with a victory, and could also get there with a loss and some help.
Saturday is the 116th meeting in this lately one-sided rivalry. Oklahoma leads 90-18-7 and won each of the last six meetings.
Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 13 matchup between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 27, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Weather: Mostly sunny, low of 40
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Odds Analysis
This spread opened as low as Cowboys -3 but is now -4 at DraftKings and a few other books. If it looks strange to see Oklahoma as an underdog in this rivalry, well, it is. It has been a dog just four times this century, last in 2017 when it was +1 in Stillwater and won 62-52.
DraftKings opened the total at 51 and it’s down to 50.5. I have seen it as low as 49.5 elsewhere. There hasn’t been close to a total this low in the last 10 meetings.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Picks
Oklahoma +4 (-110) ★★★
Over 50.5 (-105) ★★★
SEE ALSO: Oregon State vs. Oregon Picks
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Predictions
Oklahoma +4 (-110)
The 20 combined wins for the Sooners and Cowboys are tied for the most ever entering a Bedlam game. If Oklahoma loses but Baylor is upset by Texas Tech, then OU will still get a rematch with OSU next week in the Big 12 title game. If Oklahoma loses and Baylor wins, the Bears are in.
The Sooners were -7 in Norman in last year's meeting and rolled 41-13 as QB Spencer Rattler threw for 301 yards and four touchdowns; however, he lost his job earlier this season to Caleb Williams. Oklahoma State managed only 246 total yards in that meeting. The Pokes’ two QBs were 15-for-40 for 168 yards and a TD.
Oklahoma is 16-2 in the past 18 meetings and 17-2 all-time against Oklahoma State when both teams are ranked in the AP poll – 2-0 when both are in the Top 10. This marks only the fifth time this century that OSU is ranked higher in the AP poll than OU when they play.
My main concern here is how much motivation the Cowboys actually have. Yes, they still have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff if they win this week and then the Big 12 title, but not a great shot. The players already know they will compete in the program’s first Big 12 title game with a loss. Easy to have a letdown.
In addition, Oklahoma is very comfortable on the road under head coach Lincoln Riley, winning 28 of its last 31 true road games. OU has scored at least 30 points in 35 of its last 36 true road games. I absolutely think it can win this game, and at worst lose by three.
Over 50.5 (-105)
This is a tough call because oddsmakers seem to have nailed the total – most models/simulations out there have the combined final score around 51 points. If this game is in the 40s, then defensive-minded OSU is going to win outright.
The Pokes lead the nation in sacks, tackles for loss, and third-down defense. They're also No. 2 in scoring defense, No. 3 in total defense, and No. 4 in rushing and first-down defense. OSU has allowed one offensive touchdown in the last 16 quarters of play, has held its past four opponents to 7-for-53 on third down, and also under 150 yards of total offense. No other FBS team has held three opponents under 150 yards this season.
However, don’t sleep on the OSU offense. Behind QB Spencer Sanders and RB Jaylen Warren, the Pokes are averaging 41.25 points and 482 yards of offense across their last four games.
Oklahoma ranks 10th nationally in scoring with 38.9 points per game, and its 2.5 punts per game are the third-fewest in the country. Williams, a freshman, has completed 65.5% of his passes for 1,418 yards and 15 touchdowns with four interceptions. He ranks sixth nationally with a 176.28 efficiency rating. He can also beat teams with his feet.
The Over is 7-2-1 in OU’s last 10 games as an underdog. It’s also 3-1-1 in OSU’s last five home games.
Oklahoma-Oklahoma State picks made on 11/23/21 at 5:55 p.m. ET.