Texas State vs. Texas Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: College Football Week 1 Odds
No. 5 Texas has arguably the biggest nonconference matchup of the season looming next week against No. 1 Ohio State, and the lookahead factor is why my Texas State vs. Texas prediction calls for a shootout without the Longhorns’ undivided attention on defense.
Kickoff from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) on Saturday, and Texas is a 29.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Texas State vs. Texas picks & odds: Week 1
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State +30.5 (-115 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.87u | Texas could get caught looking ahead to a showdown with No. 1 Ohio State next week |
| Over 59.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.93u | Bobcats quarterback Brad Johnson lit it up at the end of last season, as did Arch Manning |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.8 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💰 Texas State vs. Texas prediction & best bet
Over 59.5 (-108)
How Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning rebounded from a poor first three games last season to produce the stats he did is remarkable. Through the first three games, he had a 47 QBR, completed 55% of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt, and had a 6:3 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio. But over the final 10 games, his QBR improved to 83, while he completed 63% of his passes for 8.1 YPA and had a 20:4 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio.
In all, Manning finished with an FBS-best 93 Total QBR after Week 9. But it also takes two teams to contribute scoring for the Over to cash, and I like Texas State’s chances of doing just that. The Bobcats bring back dual-threat quarterback Brad Jackson, who scored 17 rushing touchdowns and averaged 3.8 total touchdowns per game over the final five.
Texas State has won three straight openers, and two touchdowns from the confident road underdogs should be enough to cash this Over.
Score prediction: Texas 45, Texas State 17
🔬 SBR Edge: Manning in rarified air
Arch Manning became the fourth Texas quarterback with 25-plus passing touchdowns and 10 or more rushing touchdowns in a season.
📊 Texas State vs. Texas odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 1 matchup.
Texas State vs. Texas opening odds
• Moneyline: Texas State +2500 | Texas -10000
• Spread: Texas State +31.5 (-110) | Texas -31.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 60.5 (-110) | Under 60.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Texas State vs. Texas: Week 1
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 5
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: fuboTV
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
