Oklahoma vs. Nebraska Picks, Predictions Week 3 College Football: Can Sooners Win 3rd Straight?
Oklahoma and Nebraska's meeting in Week 3 will be just their second head-to-head clash since 2010 as they renew an old Big 12 rivalry. We're breaking down the betting angles with our Oklahoma-Nebraska picks.
Scott Frost's hot seat was blazing after Nebraska lost to Northwestern in Week 0 in Dublin, Ireland. The latest 45-42 defeat to Georgia Southern as a 23.5-point favorite was his undoing. Nebraska fired Frost on Sunday. Now associate head coach Mickey Joseph takes over the team, with a date against the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners on tap for his debut.
Oklahoma has beaten its first two opponents, UTEP and Kent State, by an average of 31 points. Now, first-year head coach Brent Venables looks to start his Oklahoma tenure with three straight wins.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 3 game between Nebraska and Oklahoma (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska Game Info
Date: Saturday, Sept. 17, noon ET
TV: FOX
Location: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE
Weather: 91 degrees, 19% chance of precipitation, 15-mph south winds
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska Odds Analysis
Frost's dismissal seems to have sharp bettors already willing to trust Nebraska again despite last week's disaster. Though 69% of ATS bets are backing the Sooners, those account for just 43% of the total handle. This caused the spread to drop from Oklahoma -14 to -11 or -12 as of Saturday morning.
There's reverse line movement on the Over/Under. The line opened at 63 but has grown to 65.5 despite 56% of tickets and 52% of the handle being placed on the Under. This could suggest sportsbooks have received wagers from notable bettors on the Over.
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska Picks
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Oklahoma vs. Nebraska ATS Pick
Nebraska +11.5 (-110) ★★
This game can go one of two ways. Either Nebraska mails in the season after another embarrassing loss, or the team rallies around Joseph and makes something of its campaign. I believe the latter will happen, as there are positives to take from Frost getting fired.
First, there's no more speculation about his job status, and that cloud isn't hanging over every practice and media session. An experienced coaching staff is taking over, and although the Cornhuskers' .340 winning percentage is only better than Rutgers among Big Ten schools since 2018, the team has still been competitive. Frost's squads were 5-22 in one-score games, and now a change in mindset could help Nebraska be more successful in those tight circumstances.
What do we really know about Oklahoma after two soft non-conference games? The line for this contest over the summer was Sooners -3, and it was still as low as -9 just last week. Oddsmakers are therefore overreacting to the coaching change, and bettors are getting more value based on the narrative that Nebraska can no longer make anything of its season.
Caesars or BetMGM are the places to make this wager if you're a Nebraska backer, as all other sportsbooks offer +11 or lower.
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska O/U Pick
Over 66.5 (-110) ★★★★
The halftime score of the 2021 Oklahoma-Nebraska clash was 7-3, and even the 23-16 final wasn't in line with the results from a typical Lincoln Riley-led team. However, so far Venables' Oklahoma squad is averaging 39 points per game, and it'll look to exploit a Cornhuskers defense that just allowed 642 total yards to Georgia Southern.
Meanwhile, Nebraska should be installing a few fresh wrinkles with a new coaching philosophy. And with the temperature forecasted to be in the low 90s for the duration of the game, expect each team's defense to wear down and allow more chunk plays as the contest progresses.
Eight defensive starters are gone from the 2021 Sooners team that held Nebraska to 133 yards below its season average during last year's game. Expect the Cornhuskers to enjoy more success offensively now.
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Oklahoma vs. Nebraska Prop Pick
Nebraska first team to score (+125) ★★
Though Oklahoma has cruised to two easy victories, the team has scored first just once when it took a 3-0 lead against UTEP during the second quarter in Week 2.
The Cornhuskers will likely opt to receive if they win the coin toss given their desire to start fast in front of the home crowd. Since I expect the Cornhuskers to be competitive, I'm glad to back them at plus odds to score first for the third time in four games.
Where to Bet on Oklahoma-Nebraska Picks
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Oklahoma-Nebraska picks made 9/14/2022 at 6:16 a.m. ET.
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