College Football ATS Picks Week 5: Predictions Against the Spread

My college football ATS picks had another profitable week last week, and narrowly missed going 5-2 week when Missouri failed to cover the +6.5 by a half point in a game it led by a touchdown halfway through the fourth quarter. I nailed my only play on a favorite (Clemson covered -1 in a 24-10 road victory), and this week’s wagers are much more balanced with plays on three favorites and four underdogs.

Among my top wagers is why I expect Pittsburgh to overcome what should be a raucous atmosphere in Blacksburg on Friday night in a matchup of unbeatens against Virginia Tech.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 5

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 5 based on the latest college football odds.

🔥 Best college football ATS picks: Week 5

🐾 Pittsburgh (-114 via FanDuel) vs. West Virginia

Virginia Tech is 4-0 for the first time since 2017, and head coach James Franklin has restored an energy in the program that should have Lane Stadium at a fever pitch on Friday night, especially while blasting “Enter Sandman.” But I’m using all of that hype to fade the public and back a 4-0 Panthers squad.

Pittsburgh enters off a 59-0 beatdown of Bucknell in which it set school records for total offense (766 yards), passing yards (574), and touchdown passes (eight). Quarterback Mason Heintschel now ranks second in the ACC with 13 touchdown passes and is in the top four in passing yards per game and passing efficiency. 

I’m not doubting the Panthers’ chances of being successful on the road, as they have won four straight road games while scoring at least 30 points in each. Should they accomplish that again on Friday, it would be the first time they’ve done that in five consecutive road games since a six-game span in 1976-77.

👑 James Madison -17.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Marshall

At some point, James Madison’s point spreads are going to be over-inflated considering it is one of nine remaining FBS teams that are 4-0 ATS. But this line isn’t one of them, especially with how impressive the Dukes looked against Old Dominion’s defense.

James Madison completely dominated Old Dominion’s defense for a 46-20 victory while totaling 405 yards and converting 21 first downs. That is impressive when considering the Monarchs brought back 10 of 18 defenders from last year’s team that had logged 200-plus snaps. The Dukes took a heavily anticipated Sun Belt matchup and made it a laugher by holding Old Dominion to minus-14 rushing yards on 28 attempts.

The best number for this wager is at FanDuel, as it's the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a line better than -18.

🐻 Baylor +4.5 (-112 via FanDuel) vs. Arizona State

Baylor is a one-point loss against Auburn in the season opener from entering this contest 4-0. And after Arizona State lost to a Texas A&M team by 28 points (while the Aggies lost their next two each by double digits), I’d imagine oddsmakers are making the Sun Devils this heavy of a favorite while citing its bye week advantage after having played in London in Week 3. 

Baylor’s offense was boosted by the return of quarterback DJ Lagway last week, after he missed two games with an ankle injury. His dual-threat ability should complement a Bears defense that just held Colorado to 13 points prior to entering as PFF’s second-highest graded team in tackling. In the process, the Bears held Colorado’s Julian Lewis to 4.7 yards per attempt after he entered the week tied for the most passing touchdowns among FBS quarterbacks of 40-plus yards.

Baylor has as high as 54.95% implied odds to cover this same number through DraftKings' steeper -122 price.