Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Week 1 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
My best Missouri State vs. Texas A&M prediction focuses on Marcel Reed and No. 8 Texas A&M's offense against a defense that allowed 28.8 points per game last season. Even after scoring just three points in the College Football Playoff, Texas A&M finished last season as the 19th-best offense, averaging 33.8 points per game.
Texas A&M is favored by 40.5 points ahead of Saturday's 7 p.m. ET game at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. The game will air on ESPN and stream on ESPN Unlimited.
🏈 Missouri State vs. Texas A&M picks & odds: Week 1
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri State +40.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.46u | Texas A&M will likely bench starters in the second half, plus the defense allowed at least 20 points against two of its three non-power conference opponents last year. |
| Over 53.5 (-112 via DraftKings) | 2u → 1.78u | Quarterback Marcel Reed returns to an offense that scored at least 41 points six times last year. |
| Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown scorer (+130 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.3u | Horton scored eight touchdowns last season with Alabama, one year after scoring five with Miami. |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 3.54 units
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💰 Missouri State vs. Texas A&M prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Over 53.5 (-112)
Last season, Texas A&M scored at least 41 points six times, with three of those performances coming against non-power conference opponents. Reed also led the team to at least 31 points in 10 of their first 11 games.
But while I love Texas A&M to score plenty in this game, there are enough questions regarding the defense to trust Skyler Locklear and Missouri State to score some points. Texas A&M allowed at least 17 points in nine games last season, with two of the Aggies' non-power conference opponents topping 20.
Score prediction: Texas A&M 48, Missouri State 14
🙌 Missouri State vs. Texas A&M touchdown scorer prediction
Isaiah Horton to score a touchdown (+130)
Last season with Alabama, Horton scored eight touchdowns, finding the end zone in six different games. Now, he joins an offense that had 26 passing touchdowns last season, tied for 25th in the nation.
Horton wasn't just a one-season wonder. In his final season with Miami, he caught 56 passes, five of which were touchdowns. It's also worth noting that Reed threw at least three touchdowns against all three of his non-power conference opponents last season.
🚀 Missouri State vs. Texas A&M same-game parlay
The only way this Over doesn't hit is if Texas A&M shuts out Missouri State and benches their starters for the entire second half. Since I expect Missouri State to score some, the only really dangerous part of this parlay is Horton scoring. Horton joins a stacked receiving corps featuring Mario Craver and Ashton Bethel-Roman. Plus, running back Rueben Owens will score plenty this season. Still, for a price of +274, I'll risk one unit at DraftKings.
💵 Missouri State vs. Texas A&M SGP picks
- Over 53.5
- Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown scorer
Best odds: +274 via DraftKings (1u → 2.74u)
💵 My betting record for college football picks
All college football picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Aug. 29.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-9 | -7.04 units ❌ | -59.9% ❌ |
| Game picks | 1-1 | -0.59 units ❌ | -23.6%❌ |
| Player props | 1-6 | -4.95 units ❌ | -63.8% ❌ |
| Parlays | 0-2 | -1.50 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Missouri State vs. Texas A&M: College football strategy
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions.
Picking a side for the spread is tough for a few reasons. First, how long will Texas A&M play its starters? Second, will the Texas A&M defense struggle as it did many times last season? And third, does Missouri State have the talent to do anything against Texas A&M's defense? All of these questions are why I'm wagering just half a unit on Missouri State +40.5. And because Texas A&M may bench starters early, the Over is a 2-unit play, though every part of me wants to risk 2.5.
📊 Live Missouri State vs. Texas A&M odds: Week 1
Our live Missouri State vs. Texas A&M odds update in real time.
📺 How to watch Missouri State vs. Texas A&M: Week 1
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 5
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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