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Michigan State vs. Penn State Picks, Predictions College Football Week 13: Will Nittany Lions Romp Spartans?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 25, 2022 9:30 AM EST • 1 min 48 sec read.

Sean Clifford of the Penn State Nittany Lions attempts a pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Sean Clifford of the Penn State Nittany Lions attempts a pass against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP.

The Penn State Nittany Lions host the rival Michigan State Spartans in the Week regular-season finale for both teams. Read on for our top Michigan State-Penn State college football picks.

Michigan State (5-6, 3-5) is looking to spoil Penn State's (9-2, 6-2) Senior Day, and the Spartans need a win to become bowl eligible. The team has won just one game away from home in 2022 (1-3 straight up), while Penn State's only home loss (5-1) was to No. 2-ranked Ohio State. 

Here are our top picks for the Michigan State-Penn State matchup in college football's Week 13 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 13!

Michigan State vs. Penn State Picks

Sbr Betting TicketThree Picks

Michigan State vs. Penn State ATS Pick

Penn State -18 (-110) ★★★

Michigan State fell from 58th to 66th in the overall SP+ rankings (among the 10 largest declines) after a disappointing double-overtime loss to Indiana. The Spartans blew a 17-point halftime lead and missed a chip-shot 22-yard field goal at the end of regulation, sending the game to overtime.

The school is 1-2 against AP-ranked teams in 2022, with the two losses coming by a combined 51 points. Penn State will earn its first 10-win season in three years in a big way.

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Michigan State vs. Penn State O/U Pick

Over 52.5 (-110) ★★

Penn State is a balanced football team and is one of just three squads in the country ranked in the top 21 in both offensive and defensive SP+ (Ohio State and Alabama are the others). 

There's a history of these two squads playing high-scoring games, with the Over cashing in nine of the previous 12 meetings. Penn State's running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will be too much for the Spartans' defense to handle. The unit allows over 180 yards per game on the ground.

Check out our Week 13 college football games to watch.

Michigan State vs. Penn State Prop Pick

Penn State team total Over 35.5 (-115) ★★★★

Penn State's offense is heating up as the weather gets colder, averaging 41.2 points per game over the program's previous five contests (4-1 straight up during that span). The Nittany Lions' offense is a big reason the Over has cashed in five of their last six games.

Outside of the Ohio State game, Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford has posted a 6-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the team's previous four contests while taking just three sacks. He should get into a nice rhythm against Michigan State's 80th-ranked defense, according to SP+.

Where to Bet on Michigan State vs. Penn State picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Michigan State-Penn State picks made 11/23/2022 at 6:25 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.