Miami (OH) vs. Northern Illinois Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Can Huskies Grab Home Win?
Northern Illinois is 7-3 in head-to-head meetings with Miami (OH) since 2002, but the RedHawks covered the spread in seven of eight meetings since 2006. Read on for our NIU-Miami college football picks and predictions.
Miami (4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U) has largely failed to achieve the desired outcomes in a season that began with high expectations. Last week saw the Redhawks lose by 16 at home to Ohio. This marked Miami’s third loss in its last four games.
Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U) managed to snap a two-game slide with a victory last week over Western Michigan. Incredibly, that was only the second conference win and third victory of the year overall for the defending MAC champs. The Huskies have not won a home game in DeKalb since the season opener.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 12 matchup between Miami and Northern Illinois (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 12.
Miami vs. Northern Illinois Game Info
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 16, 7 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN
Location: Husky Stadium, DeKalb, IL
Weather: 33 degrees, 80% chance of precipitation, 10-11 mph winds NW
Miami vs. Northern Illinois Odds
Miami vs. Northern Illinois Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers first opened Northern Illinois as a 3-point home favorite. The spread has moved steadily in Miami’s favor since then. At the time of writing, the market consensus sits at NIU -1.5. Some books have already moved closer to pick ’em.
Looking at the betting splits for this matchup, Miami is clearly the big-money side. At DraftKings, only 42% of all ATS bets placed to date are on the Redhawks. However, that minority percentage of tickets has accounted for more than 80% of the handle.
As for the game total, an opening line of 47 has come down anywhere from 1-2 points across the market. At DraftKings, where the total sits at 46, a whopping 87% of the total handle is on the Under.
Check out our top sportsbook in Ohio and Illinois.
Miami vs. Northern Illinois Picks
Miami vs. Northern Illinois ATS Pick
Miami +1.5 (-110) ★★★★
Last week was an uncharacteristic performance by Miami defensively. The Redhawks had not allowed more than 24 points to a conference opponent up until Ohio scored 37 in last week’s matchup. Miami had held each of its three previous opponents to 17 points or fewer.
It should be noted that Ohio has the most prolific offense of any team in the MAC. As such, the Redhawks’ defense figures to be primed for a bounce-back effort on Wednesday night. While Northern Illinois has proven capable of putting up points, this matchup does not bode well for the Huskies’ run-heavy offense.
Last week, NIU was without each of its top two running backs, yet still managed to sail over the 200-yard mark on the ground. Northern Illinois has averaged 201 rushing yards per game as a team. The problem is that Miami comes in allowing only 124.9 rushing yards per contest to opponents.
Bettors also must not overlook the fact that junior quarterback Brett Gabbert returned from injury last week for the Redhawks. Even in defeat, Gabbert helped to jumpstart the passing attack in a big way.
The 21 points Miami scored last week marked the team’s third-highest output of the entire season. Having their veteran quarterback back could pay major dividends for the Redhawks against a Huskies defense that has been atrocious.
Miami vs. Northern Illinois O/U Pick
Under 46 (-109) ★
Although Miami figures to have a solid amount of offensive success in this matchup, the same cannot be said of Northern Illinois. As such, we are inclined to argue in favor of the Under as a contrarian play.
Joining running backs Harrison Waylee and Antario Brown in street clothes last week for NIU were quarterbacks Rocky Lombardi and Ethan Hampton. Due to injuries, the QB position has been a revolving door all season for the Huskies.
Regardless of who is under center, the ground game serves as the identity of the offense. However, some semblance of a passing attack could prove vital simply to keep the Miami defense honest. Given that neither Lombardi nor Hampton has played in over a month, it’s hard to count on one of them returning to the lineup on Wednesday night.
In addition to the major concerns regarding Northern Illinois’ offense, the weather could also play a factor in how much scoring takes place. Snow is in the forecast for DeKalb along with winds in excess of 10 mph.
Miami vs. Northern Illinois Prop Pick
Northern Illinois Under 23.5 points (-122) ★★★
If Northern Illinois is forced to battle not only a stout Miami run defense but also bad weather, surpassing this team total prop of 23.5 seems like a major stretch.
After scoring 28-plus points in six of their first seven games, the Huskies’ offense has tapered off recently. Of course, having to rely on reserve quarterbacks is a big reason why. With injury concerns at the running back position, as well, it’s anyone’s guess as to who NIU will have available on Wednesday.
NIU may have been able to score 24 points and escape with a win last week, but that came against an awful Western Michigan team. The Redhawks will provide much more resistance defensively, particularly against the run. Also note that even though the Huskies have scored a lot of points on several occasions, they only rank 95th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Where to Bet on Miami vs. Northern Illinois Picks
See our top-rated sportsbooks in Ohio and Illinois:
Miami-Northern Illinois picks made 11/15/2022 at 1:45 p.m. ET
Miami-Northern Illinois picks made 11/15/2022 at 1:45 p.m. ET
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