Friday 40-Yarder: College Football Week 1 Best Bets, Odds & Predictions

Welcome to Week 1 of the college football season, a week hiding a game with distinct College Football Playoff implications, a couple rivalries proving wills can overcome conference realignment, and an aimless neutral-site primetime game on Sunday where too many people will tailgate wrong. Below I break down my best bets in my Friday 40-Yarder.

Liberty +6.5 vs. James Madison (-110)

BetMGM favors both the Liberty Flames and the James Madison Dukes to win their conferences at +275 and +250, respectively. Aside from the Boise State Broncos, they may have the best chances of making the College Football Playoff from the Group of Six.

And if Boise State is thoroughly drummed off the field by the No. 2 Oregon Ducks this weekend (Saturday at 3:30 ET on CBS), then the winner in Harrisonburg (Saturday at 12 ET on ESPNU) may be in the Group of Six driver’s seat.

So yes, absolutely ignore North Texas vs. Indiana on FOX at 12 ET on Saturday, ignore East Carolina vs. Alabama at the same time on ABC, and focus instead on Liberty vs. James Madison. (For good measure, also ignore Texas State vs. Texas at 3:30 ET on ESPN.)

Dukes head coach Billy Napier is attempting to revive his recipe for success from Louisiana, stocking both his lines with sizable transfers, but one can be forgiven for wondering if both time and the transfer portal have rendered his Cajun approach a bit more inept now.

Meanwhile, Flames head coach Jamey Chadwell absolutely must deliver this season. That urgency starts now.

Smarter numbers see this game within six points, and a bold wonder could envision Liberty starting a Playoff campaign.

Wyoming +3 vs. Colorado State (-105)

No matter what the likes of No. 14 USC or Oregon or certainly any team in Texas may claim, conference realignment does not need to end your rivalry.

Wyoming and Colorado State are no longer in the same conference. And yet, they continue their streak of playing every year since World War II.

Hey USC, hey Oregon, hey too many teams in Texas, you are nothing but cowards driven by greed and you are hurting college football.

This sport is best when felt deeply, when felt for decades, when based on proximity.

Laramie is an hour’s drive from Fort Collins. A bold recreational cyclist could cover the distance in five-plus hours (and is suddenly considering that in a year to come). It is important to the fans that they play, so despite splitting conferences, here they are, still hating each other.

Rams head coach Jim Mora faces a distinct culture shift moving from UConn, and that may be enough of an edge for the Cowboys. And, again, smarter numbers picture this gap as closer to a coin flip than a field goal.

Cal Moneyline vs. UCLA (+110)

The coach more familiar with the West Coast, with the more promising quarterback and homefield advantage, should not be an underdog to open the season. This very well may be a “Wrong Team Favored” moment, aka WTF.

And any NFL fans finally realizing college football is far more entertaining than the most vanilla professional sports league in the world, they can hone in on Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to say they were ahead of the 2028 draft cycle, when he is likely to be a touted prospect.

This late-night (Saturday at 10:30 ET on ESPN) delight may be the best game on ESPN all weekend, with the Cal moneyline at DraftKings offering value. 

Notre Dame First Drive Touchdown vs. Wisconsin

No sportsbook is offering this yet, but keep an eye out for it. Such a bet is almost always plus-money, and given the anger in the offseason for the No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, setting an aggressive tone early will make a bounty of sense.

Junior quarterback CJ Carr should be quite comfortable with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s script, and it will take at least a couple drives for the Wisconsin Badgers defense to adjust.

Brandy, Not Whiskey

And to anyone tailgating in Green Bay who wants to feel like they are living the Wisconsin experience, let this native Wisconsinite advise you of three things:

• Old-fashioneds are made with brandy, not whiskey, in Wisconsin
• Drink Moon Man from New Glarus, not Spotted Cow
• Drink Dark Lager from Leinenkugel’s, not Summer Shandy