Texas A&M triumphed over Miami in Week 3, while the Razorbacks barely neat Missouri State. What picks offer the most value when Texas A&M and Arkansas meet in Week 4?
The Texas A&M Aggies switched their starting quarterback before Week 3. The result was more of the same, as the Aggies struggled to get anything going offensively. However, the defense and special teams were huge, propelling the Aggies to a 17-9 victory over the Miami Hurricanes.
The Arkansas Razorbacks survived a serious scare from FCS-opponent Missouri State. The Razorbacks trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter before rallying back to win by double-digits. It was not the type of victory you expect from a top-10 team from the SEC, but they got the win. Now, with a matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide on the horizon, can they maintain focus to take care of Texas A&M this weekend?
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Game Info
Date: Saturday, Sept, 24, 7 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Weather: 75 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 17-mph winds
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Analysis
The Aggies have been favored the whole way, but this line has moved slowly toward a pick ‘em throughout the week. The Razorbacks are getting 56% of the cash and 70% of the tickets to cover this small spread.
As for the total, it opened at 48 and has moved to 49 on most major sportsbooks. Currently, 81% of the cash is on the Under but only 52% of the tickets.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Picks
- Moneyline: Arkansas (+110 via BetMGM) ★★★
- Over/Under: Under 49 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
- Prop: Texas A&M Under 25.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ★★★
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Moneyline Pick
Arkansas (+110) ★★★
The Razorbacks were lucky to escape Week 3 with a win. However, they managed to get through their look-ahead matchup with Missouri State and now face an Aggies squad that doesn’t have much to offer offensively.
The Aggies shut down the Miami offense in Week 3, but the Hurricanes were without their star wide receiver Xavier Restrepo, which severely limited their offensive scheme. The Razorbacks have no shortage of offensive talent. They’re averaging over 500 yards per game, and they have a solid balance of rushing and passing.
The Aggies boast the better defense in this game, but the offense will not keep up with the Razorbacks’ offense. Take Arkansas on the moneyline for a better price in a game that is essentially a pick ‘em anyway.
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Arkansas vs. Texas A&M O/U Pick
Under 49 (-110) ★★★★
In the Aggies' three games, there has been a combined 88 points scored. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have not seen a total go under 54 all season.
The Aggies are the best defense that KJ Jefferson has had to face this season. However, he and running back Raheim Sanders are talented enough to move the ball against anyone.
The biggest reason this game is going Under is that the Aggies won’t be able to take advantage of a weak Razorbacks’ secondary. Max Johnson did not look good against Miami and had it not been for a muffed punt, the Aggies may have barely cracked double-digits last week.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prop Pick
Texas A&M Under 25.5 (-115) ★★★
Even when the Aggies played Appalachian State, they could only produce 14 points against the Mountaineers’ mediocre defense. The only time they have gone over 24.5 this year was when they played Sam Houston in Week 1.
The Razorbacks’ defense has problems of its own. Giving up 27 points to Missouri State is alarming. However, once they needed to turn it on, they did, as they only allowed three points in the fourth quarter.
Win or lose, the Aggies are going to play this game in the teens or low 20s, just like they have done all season.
Where to Bet on Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
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Arkansas vs. Texas A&M picks made 9/22/2022 at 9:48 a.m. ET