Grading Shohei Ohtani and Top AL MVP Candidates

After Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani mashed two home runs, including a grand slam, in Monday's 11-3 rout of the Tampa Bay Rays, it's a good time to look at the American League MVP market and grade the seasons of the top contenders. 

Ohtani won the AL MVP last season with ace caliber pitching (9-2, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.8 K/9) to go with 46 home runs and 26 stolen bases.  

Naturally, Ohtani is favored to win the award again this season, but there are plenty of viable contenders at this stage. While it is difficult for Ohtani's odds to get much lower this early in the season, there is more separation between him and the other top contenders, including his teammate, Mike Trout. 

Here are the American League MVP Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM.  

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Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR here. 

Mike Trout: A+ 

The other Angels superstar was limited to just 36 games last season, and that shortened campaign may have contributed to lowering expectations on Trout. He had been the AL MVP favorite for nine straight seasons before Ohtani took over as the favorite this season. 

A healthy Trout has resumed his destruction of the American League, hitting seven home runs and driving in 16 runs while scoring 22 runs in 26 games. He does not steal bases the way he did in his prime, but Trout is as dangerous as ever at the plate, currently posting a slash line of .319/.441/.659.  

He is the AL leader in advanced stats wRC+ (223) and xwOBA (.470).

The fascination with Ohtani has resulted in Trout's odds for MLB getting longer, even with his outrageous, offensive production.  

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Aaron Judge: A 

Judge has a history of injuries, but he was relatively healthy last season, playing 148 games. He has been healthy and productive this season, crushing nine home runs, driving in 19, and scoring 19 runs, with a slash line of .284/.354/.608. 

Even with limited defensive contributions, Judge has an fWAR of 1.6, and if he leads the American League in home runs, the Yankees right fielder will not go unnoticed. 

Jose Ramirez: A 

Although the Cleveland Guardians' third baseman is not running as much as he has in previous seasons, managing three stolen bases in 29 games, Ramirez also has seven home runs, 30 RBI, and 18 runs scored. 

His slash line of .299/.406/.607 is the best of his career. With the Guardians off to a good start and Ramirez leading the American League with a 2.0 fWAR, he is right in the middle of the MVP discussion. 

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Wander Franco: A- 

The consensus top prospect in baseball when he was called up by the Rays last season, Franco had a solid finish to his first major league season and has not slowed down any in his second campaign.

In 28 games, he has four home runs, 15 RBI, and 20 runs scored while stealing three bases. His slash line of .322/.347/.517, combined with plus defense at shortstop, leads to an fWAR of 1.6, so Franco is already super valuable. But he may have a hard time pulling ahead of the other top contenders unless his power picks up. 

Byron Buxton: A- 

Buxton has played in just 19 games due to injury. And Yet, he still has accrued 1.6 fWAR in 19 games which compares very favorably to other contenders that have played 25-30 games. 

The Minnesota Twins center fielder has nine home runs, 17 RBI, and 17 runs scored. He is slashing .278/.342/.722, and while he is striking out more than he has in recent seasons, Buxton's positive defensive impact contributes to his elite value. If he stays healthy, he will be an MVP candidate. History tells us that is a big 'if.' 

Shohei Ohtani: B+ 

In 27 games as a hitter this season, Ohtani has hit six home runs and stolen four bases, but his slash line of .252/.315/.445 is nowhere near last year's offensive production. 

Ohtani has countered that with even better pitching performance. In his first five starts, Ohtani is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, with 14.0 K/9. The overall performance gives Ohtani a 1.6 FanGraphs WAR but is much more dependent on pitching performance than last season. 

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: B 

It is not as though Vladdy is off to a poor start. Through 29 games, he has seven home runs, 19 RBI, and 14 runs scored, with a slash line of .286/.358/.524, all of which is good but not good enough to be in the running for American League MVP. 

The Toronto Blue Jays first baseman has a 0.9 fWAR, which projects him to be a valuable player in an entire season but not really in the range of AL MVP. Of course, he is capable of more, but that is why the grade for this season is lower than other top MVP contenders. 

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