Shari's tennis plays

[davus4]

Clijsters is a headcase too lol +150 may be attractive though, just remember Clijsters will have the crowd behind her.

cool... good thoughts to consider. thanks to you both. i was considering going heavy on clijsters but i already commited to li na so i'm gonna relax on that. how... did ya find clijsters at +150?? i stayed up all night and only now i've managed to see her at -160. *sigh*

hmm... i think the best course of action is a very small parrrrrlay on Li + Clijsters + Djokovic/Federer Over 3.5 sets and enjoy the games. yeah!


(currently it'll triple up.)

[Optional]

Has anyone got an opinion on how fast these two start matches? Any value in Woza to take the first set +115?

[Mirar Baseball]

Caroline

Has anyone got an opinion on how fast these two start matches? Any value in Woza to take the first set +115?

This woman is probably the slowest starter of top 10 or top 20 WTA players. She consistently lost the first set and came back to win in 2010. One tournament comes to mind where she did this at least three times (!) in one tournament - I believe it was in Denmark... indoor hard (carpet?), one of these matches being against the gorgeous Georges.

This girl is fit. (And she has Slavic background. We are all procrastinators deep down inside...)

My biggest bet of the tournament so far was Wozniacki at +120 after she lost the first set to Schiavone. Just because I've seen this scenario so many times last year.


I can't confirm this, but Wozniacki could be an 'over' machine - does anyone have the stats to verify this assumption?

[k13]

Clijsters is ripe for an upset tonight but I'll believe when I see it.

Na Li vs vera final

ughh...

What did vera open at? Seems like the line has gone down a lot.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll be taking a shot at Vera in this one myself. She's got the belief she can beat Clijsters, she's done it three of the four times they've met - the big loss coming in the US Open final where she was completely overwhelmed by the moment. I think the plus for her is this isn't a finals setting where she's got that extra pressure on her. I know some might think it's stupid to say that, but there is a huge difference between playing a semi and a final and the pressure associated with it for players like Vera. She should also know going in that Clijsters is not playing consistently from set-to-set as evidenced by allowing three of her last six sets to go to tie breakers against players she should have schooled long before it got to that point. And Clijsters is also likely suffering a bit physically from playing the Sydney tournament right before this and going through to the final.

I also don't understand for the life of me why they continue to fukk the men over in Slams by letting one of the semifinalists get an extra day of rest over the other while the women are kept on an even schedule of playing on the same day. I'm sure it's for TV, but I don't understand why they don't play the semifinals for both sides on the same day and then have a day off before the women's final and two days before the mens.

[AribaAriba]

Shari, are you worried that price on Li is getting cheaper? Also, where do you see the number of action on tennis matches?

[Gee]

i've taken li and li 1st set. reasons are pretty obvious. its hers to lose.

ps: betting -1000 lines on a tennis match with a 3% edge that you've calculated yourself?

[shari91]

Shari, are you worried that price on Li is getting cheaper? Also, where do you see the number of action on tennis matches?

No, I never really put too much stock in line movement in tennis although I will look at opening lines and check to see if anything looks fishy throughout the day of a match. I can see why the line on Woz is moving down. It's not too often that you'll be able to get the world #1 as a dog or even over $1.60 actually. I'm actually thinking of being a square and trying one of my crappy totals plays on the over just so I can have something to bet today. I do like the Li first set option as Gee mentioned as well. And I'm thinking of taking Vera to win the first set but I have to look into that more.

[labrador]

Li is a slow starter herself too, especially at the very beginning of the set. Her past 4 sets againts Azarenka and Pet, she lost all her first service games. Everytime she managed to break back right away, though.

[Mirar Baseball]

I don't understand why they don't play the semifinals for both sides on the same day and then have a day off before the women's final and two days before the mens.

It's ridiculous. Why do they do that?

Furthermore, if they MUST do it, why is seed #2 getting an extra day of rest, instead of seed #1? If Nadal and Federer would keep winning, Roger would get 20+ extra hours to heal up... What the hell is with that?

[Coochiemudlo]

Na Li fights back and takes the second

I didn't expect that

[AribaAriba]

COME ON LI!

[shari91]

Yes!!! Come on Li you little fighter!!!!

[hawley]

Shari i think Li can take her from here, that choke job will be fresh in wozniackis mind and Li is hitting her shots and making woz run

what do you reckon?

[shari91]

Shari i think Li can take her from here, that choke job will be fresh in wozniackis mind and Li is hitting her shots and making woz run

what do you reckon?

I honestly have no clue. This match is too unpredictable. I didn't live bet it and I'm glad I didn't or I'd be sick right now.

[hawley]

i agree 100%, im itching to bet it live but have no idea which way to go

Woz blew 2 chances to serve out the match so i dont know if i could take her regardless

[Mirar Baseball]

shari would you win your 'over' bet if caroline took the tiebreaker? what was the line? 21.5?

[shari91]

shari would you win your 'over' bet if caroline took the tiebreaker? what was the line? 21.5?

Yeah 21.5. The best case scenario I thought was a tiebreak in the second but obviously gave up on that early in the set. Then had hope again. Then lost it. Then got it back.

Never thought we'd get to the third set at that point.

It basically covers my Li first set bet so now all I have is my Li future.

[AribaAriba]

Who's millionaire here who suckered to nadal yesterday and lost a million? LOL

[shari91]

Who's millionaire here who suckered to nadal yesterday and lost a million? LOL

Oh no! Someone did that?! Cripes that's bad.

[Mirar Baseball]

Oh no! Someone did that?! Cripes that's bad.

Oh I'm sure that million meant less to the guy who bet it than the bonus to the oddsmaker/book manager who accepted the bet.

[RLF]

Have both managed to hold twice in a row this whole match?

[shari91]

Have both managed to hold twice in a row this whole match?

I have a feeling Li just pissed her chance away. I hope I'm wrong but that's the sense I get.

[Optional]

Wow... women's tennis is too much of a roller coaster for my nerves.

[Mirar Baseball]

Yeah 21.5. The best case scenario I thought was a tiebreak in the second but obviously gave up on that early in the set. Then had hope again. Then lost it. Then got it back.

Never thought we'd get to the third set at that point.

It basically covers my Li first set bet so now all I have is my Li future.

I wonder if you bother looking up how many times a player (a pair of players) actually cover the U/O line before placing one of these total wagers (that you claim you suck at )

I said before I have a hunch that Wozniacki is an 'Over' type player... Any idea if that's true?

[Mirar Baseball]

Wow... women's tennis is too much of a roller coaster for my nerves.

This, and whenever Andy Murray plays. I had an Under 33.5 bet last night. FML!

[stefan084]

Na is too reckless. I know that she's aggressive but shot selection is horrible sometimes. I wish she would let the ball drop and overhand some of these short ones instead of hitting it on the fly. Also Shari how long have you been betting tennis?I've been watching for a couple years and want to start getting into it. Is this easier/harder to cap than other sports?

[shari91]

Holy shit!!! I'm seriously frigging crying right now. I honestly can't believe this.

[GAMBLOR777]

Hey shari do you like Clisters or Zvon?

[AribaAriba]

Same here Shari i had the spread at -1.5 wow TENNIS IS JUST AWESOME

[Mirar Baseball]

I have a feeling Li just pissed her chance away. I hope I'm wrong but that's the sense I get.

Great match. Worked out just like I hoped it would, and I lost the minimum with that wager Woz 2-1 @ +400.

Happy for you shari! Well done... you killed it today!

[Coochiemudlo]

YES

[Mirar Baseball]

Wow, she is HILARIOUS!

Na Li and Schiavone must be two of the funniest women on tour. Stosur is kind of cool too. It's great to see someone who plays at such a level and enjoys herself 200%.

[Mirar Baseball]

Holy shit!!! I'm seriously frigging crying right now. I honestly can't believe this.

Can you not believe Caroline gave it away? It wasn't there for the taking, not sure Kim could do what Na Li just did.

Do you have anything lined up for semi #2? I'm definitely taking Vera and maybe 2-1 Vera (although I think if she wins the first set, it could be over in a hurry. Kim isn't as hungry, and slightly hurt... reminds me of what happened last night to Nadal )

[Mirar Baseball]

Shari, do you like anything like Leanne White?