Shari's tennis plays

**shari91** · 11-14-10, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by Tommy_de1st

Shari, did you end up playing any NBL matches yesterday?

Yeah, I posted the bets in here. Too many people for me to try to get a hold of so I figure I'll just post in my thread and if anyone is interested they know where to find me.

**Tommy_de1st** · 11-14-10, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by shari91

Yeah, I posted the bets in here. Too many people for me to try to get a hold of so I figure I'll just post in my thread and if anyone is interested they know where to find me.

**Fischnasty** · 11-16-10, 12:40 AM

shari come to sbr chat tonight. i need a winner. thanks in advance.

**stealthyburrito** · 11-16-10, 02:14 AM

shari, how you been??

didn't realize you were in the tennis subforums.

its been dry in PT since you left us

**lasker** · 11-16-10, 02:55 PM

Shari, I asked the same question in EP's forum but I hope you don't mind me reposting it here since I also value your opinion.

Challengers match, Goran Tosic vs Cesar Ramirez. Right now Ramirez is a very slight favorite at -130, with Tosic at -110. I don't understand. Ramirez, who is relatively inexperienced with just 11 clay matches in his career, has never beaten anyone of consequence on clay. He did crush his compatriot Santiago Gonzalez on hardcourt in 2007, and Gonzalez is decent, but that was hardcourt. He lost 6-4 6-4 against Cuevas, which I guess is close enough to count for something given how good Cuevas is on clay. On clay he also lost to nobodies like unranked Piero Luisi in his last match and unranked Daniel Alejandro-Lopez a couple matches before. In his other two most recent matches he was taken to three sets by two more unranked opponents. Compare this to Tosic, who just took Prodon to two tiebreakers, is a clay-court specialist, and has beaten the likes of Navarro and Vagnozzi on this surface.

The match is taking place in Mexico, and Ramirez is Mexican. Do you think the odds indicate a fix (in favor of Ramirez) or do you think Tosic is good value at this price, or will you just avoid this one altogether? Thanks for any insights.

**noober** · 11-16-10, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Shari, I asked the same question in EP's forum but I hope you don't mind me reposting it here since I also value your opinion.

Challengers match, Goran Tosic vs Cesar Ramirez. Right now Ramirez is a very slight favorite at -130, with Tosic at -110. I don't understand. Ramirez, who is relatively inexperienced with just 11 clay matches in his career, has never beaten anyone of consequence on clay. He did crush his compatriot Santiago Gonzalez on hardcourt in 2007, and Gonzalez is decent, but that was hardcourt. He lost 6-4 6-4 against Cuevas, which I guess is close enough to count for something given how good Cuevas is on clay. On clay he also lost to nobodies like unranked Piero Luisi in his last match and unranked Daniel Alejandro-Lopez a couple matches before. In his other two most recent matches he was taken to three sets by two more unranked opponents. Compare this to Tosic, who just took Prodon to two tiebreakers, is a clay-court specialist, and has beaten the likes of Navarro and Vagnozzi on this surface.

The match is taking place in Mexico, and Ramirez is Mexican. Do you think the odds indicate a fix (in favor of Ramirez) or do you think Tosic is good value at this price, or will you just avoid this one altogether? Thanks for any insights.

this isn't a fix for sure. ramirez is 20 years old and very promising youngster. in his career he will definitely achieve more than a journeyman like tosic but at this stage of his career who knows.

**lasker** · 11-16-10, 05:29 PM

I'm not sure what Ramirez has done so far to suggest that he is a very promising youngster. He hasn't beaten any strong players. Granted that Tosic is a journeyman and he's certainly not out of Ramirez' league, but I think he should be favored.

**shari91** · 11-16-10, 07:21 PM

Sorry lasker-because of the time difference, I was tucked up in bed when you posted this. I see EP and noober gave you some advice so hopefully it worked out for you.

**lasker** · 11-17-10, 12:00 AM

Not so much, unfortunately. Ramirez won in three

This is why I don't bet much tennis anymore, I simply have no idea how to cap the matches. I would probably do well fading myself, but I think I'll stick to MMA for now.

**pat venditto** · 11-17-10, 08:50 AM

**necro** · 11-17-10, 09:57 AM

shiet happens, everywhere, everytime

**shari91** · 11-19-10, 06:59 AM

Berankis -195

Trying this although Challengers are definitely not my strongest spot.

**GAMBLOR777** · 11-19-10, 08:30 AM

good luck shari,
i'm awake and with you on berankis on this fine friday evening

**GAMBLOR777** · 11-19-10, 08:41 AM

tell me, does it worry you that berankis is now -150?

**theplagy** · 11-19-10, 09:01 AM

GL, shari

**shari91** · 11-19-10, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by GAMBLOR777

tell me, does it worry you that berankis is now -150?

No, it really doesn't. Whether this play wins or loses I've been burned too many times by late price moves in my favour to worry about it anymore. Now I just try to cap a match to the best of my ability and determine the edge I feel a player has in a match. If that edge is greater than the price offered, then I'll take it and be done with it.

Originally posted by theplagy

GL, shari

Thanks plagy. Best of luck to you too.

**beefcake** · 11-19-10, 09:21 AM

Berankis could be one to watch out for next season!

**changkaikk** · 11-19-10, 10:19 AM

good luck , fwho is berankis?

**shari91** · 11-22-10, 03:04 AM

Part of me really wants to do the square parlay of Nadal/Djoko and maybe stick Bhupathi and Mirnyi in there to raise the odds but there's something holding me back about Nadal. Still a bit concerned about his form and lack of court time. Tough call.

**noober** · 11-22-10, 04:10 AM

i don't think you should worry about nadal.

**samm29** · 11-22-10, 05:18 AM

Djokovic an nadal will easy win today !!!

**sportbet101** · 11-22-10, 05:27 AM

goo shari

**shari91** · 11-22-10, 05:27 AM

Originally posted by noober

i don't think you should worry about nadal.

Originally posted by samm29

Djokovic an nadal will easy win today !!!

Nadal it is.

**danller** · 11-22-10, 05:35 AM

Gonna tail your parlay there Shari

GL!

**Cheetahponti** · 11-22-10, 05:36 AM

Shari, I shared the same concerns about Nadal. But Roddick has really not been in great form since the US Open and this is what got me over the line in choosing him. BOL today to both of us.

**danller** · 11-22-10, 06:34 AM

btw, sent you followingrequest on twitter

hope you`ll confirm it

**shari91** · 11-22-10, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by danller

btw, sent you followingrequest on twitter

hope you`ll confirm it

I just did.

It'll be the same plays as on here but may be a little more forthright on my part since everyone can't see my thought process. Only going to accept the people that I 'know' online so I apologise in advance for the random rambling. But at least I'm honest!

**Pete0** · 11-22-10, 11:10 AM

Shari, How can i follow you on twitter ?
I like your plays

I dont see your username anywhere

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 11-22-10, 12:44 PM

good luck shari sprinkled a little on andy winning 2-1 +450

**danller** · 11-22-10, 03:48 PM

Are you watching this Shari?

**shari91** · 11-22-10, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by danller

Are you watching this Shari?

Sorry dan, I wasn't. But happy to see Nadal got his first win there in ages.

**paco** · 11-22-10, 10:15 PM

Shari, did u see my Tipsy comment?

**paco** · 11-23-10, 01:29 AM

Are u playing the tennis match in the morning?

**shari91** · 11-23-10, 06:10 AM

Federer/Murray match over 23.5 small play for me. Not choosing a side.

Best of luck everyone

**danller** · 11-23-10, 06:14 AM

Shari, can I ask you why dont you post units anymore?

just curious