Shari's tennis plays

[brucethebear]

I talked myself out of/chickened out of both. Piss me off when I don't just listen to myself.

+1.
Was one click away from 2 units on Groth.

BtB

[GroundnPound]

Maybe that was a good idea brucethebear because she is looking trashy now.

[GroundnPound]

Groth the fvkcn loser is going to push the damn +6

[alias69]

i took the over 2.5 sets in groth match win but then took groth @$3.50 after first set. loss. what do u expect when she serves 15 double faults. implosion.

[ILuuVEMBL]

yeah Groth df ruined my tennis today if she would have won 1 more gem the tennis day wouldent have been horendious,but im lucky there is baseboll it saved the dayNNo more tennis if i bet it will only be dogs for 0.5x MAX

[brucethebear]

Maybe that was a good idea brucethebear because she is looking trashy now.

Ok. Dodged a bullet.

BtB

[brucethebear]

Mummy of the year right here folks.

Hearing you. It takes 2 of us to give our little guy eye drops.
Nice pick on Arvidsson. If Hampton hadn't been bagled in the third, would have been a good night.

BtB

[JW Cash]

You gotta like Lucic in the next match .

I cant for the life of me see how she will lose .....

I am still exploring the parlay possibilities with Lucic as the key......

This could be huge......

[nulldah]

shari, i have a question for you. Not sure you have answered it before or not.

I noticed that you've been playing handicap in tennis for quite some time. Usually, I'm not following it since Betfair rarely have the market. But now, I'm trying pinnacle for sbr pro purpose and since they have the market, this is what I've been observing from your plays for 2 days. What I'm interested is underdog handicap

Hampton +4 Lose handicap and the match
Gimeno +5.5 Win handicap and the match


Dodig +3 Handicap void and Win the match (Gonzalez retired, but there r books that considered as W in ML)
Peers +4.5 Win handicap and the match
Larsson +4.5 Lose handicap and the match

So, it's clear, if they win the handicap, they also win the match. If they lose the handicap, they also lose the match.

I know these are only 2 days, which is why I want to ask, is this just an anomaly or is it more common that player that win the handicap also win the match? Obviously even if it's only 50%, it's clearly better to play SU since they're the balking dogs.

[jjgold]

2-1 so far us open +1 unit

A. Bondarenko

-140

[shari91]

shari, i have a question for you. Not sure you have answered it before or not. I noticed that you've been playing handicap in tennis for quite some time. Usually, I'm not following it since Betfair rarely have the market. But now, I'm trying pinnacle for sbr pro purpose and since they have the market, this is what I've been observing from your plays for 2 days. What I'm interested is underdog handicap Hampton +4 Lose handicap and the match Gimeno +5.5 Win handicap and the match Dodig +3 Handicap void and Win the match (Gonzalez retired, but there r books that considered as W in ML) Peers +4.5 Win handicap and the match Larsson +4.5 Lose handicap and the match So, it's clear, if they win the handicap, they also win the match. If they lose the handicap, they also lose the match. I know these are only 2 days, which is why I want to ask, is this just an anomaly or is it more common that player that win the handicap also win the match? Obviously even if it's only 50%, it's clearly better to play SU since they're the balking dogs.

I would think that it's more than 50% of the time that a player will cover the handicap and lose the match. For example with Groth yesterday, she only needed to lose the 3rd set 6-2 instead of 6-1 and that one would've hit instead of pushing whereas halfway through the 3rd set anyone who took her straight out pretty much had to concede their chances of winning were shot. I started posting handicaps when I was going through a 2 or 3 day stretch where my dogs were losing but they were all close losses ie tiebreaks, being taken to 3 sets, etc... It's a safer way to still get decent odds on a dog without them having to win straight out. In fact, I can think of several times that I've posted plays that have won by the hook but very few, if any, when I've lost by it in tennis. When dogs lose they tend to either get completely smoked, where your ML bet would be shot anyway, or they have control of the match but piss it away somehow where the handicap could still make you money.

That being said though, unless I forget, I also take the ML for half the dollar value of my handicap bets on big dogs - not +100 dogs but usually +175 or higher - sometimes for a little less on the massive ones that I think don't have much of a chance of winning but may keep it close. I only do that because if I had never started this thread, I'd rarely use handicap bets at all. The only reason I bothered with them to begin with was to try to protect the money of anyone who tailed me but if I was still going solo, I'd most likely just be taking the ML 80% of the time.

With the favourites though, I'm really trying to stay away from handicap bets and use them sparingly ie Bennetteau yesterday with the -3. They're a good way to take a player without laying the chalk but it's a crappy feeling to pick the winner but not cash because they didn't cover the games. Also when they tank a set or just play like crap for one, that can totally ruin your bet even when they go on to win.

[nulldah]

That second paragraph explain the thing clearly. Because I'm just confused little bit why you've been playing handicap, as I remembered when you first created this thread, there are no such bets with you just take it SU. And to add it, you're very good at picking the dogs.

For the rest, I'm completely agree which also why I'm not playing handicap. It's just too many scenarios for me

[nocode1]

Shari call me

[alias69]

gud luk everyone, my input. bol
seppi/youzny @$1.92 1u
rodionova +4 1.90 1u
jie zheng +3.5 1.90 1u
szavay +4.5 1.85 1u

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Night shari, here's to our good luck tonight hopefully !

[shari91]

Errani +172

Kukushkin +6.5 -125

Minella +5 -120

Berlocq +6.5 +125

Luczak +5.5 -130

[shari91]

Azarenka/Ivanovic/Hantuchova +103

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Still hitting the bets small shari ?

[EaglesPhan36]

Kukushkin +6.5 -125 Luczak +5.5 -130

Like those quite a bit. I think one of them might win straight up. Kukushkin was my first inclination. I'm on the Stakhovsky-Luczak OVER today. Think Peter takes at least a set and see that one as a 4 or 5 setter hopefully with Luczak cashing for you.

[shari91]

Still hitting the bets small shari ?

I've upped my overall bet size but I'm not on anything big yet although I'm fighting the urge to drop a decent amount on Bondarenko. These Bondarenkos have both screwed me over somehow lately but I think the only reason I can still get Alona at a semi-decent price is because people are hoping Oudin can replicate her run here last year. Wishing and reality are two different things though. Still debating and am looking more closely at the later matches to see if I like something better.

Like those quite a bit. I think one of them might win straight up. Kukushkin was my first inclination. I'm on the Stakhovsky-Luczak OVER today. Think Peter takes at least a set and see that one as a 4 or 5 setter hopefully with Luczak cashing for you.

My thinking was the books are on crack hanging these prices on Wawa and Stak. Luczak may be considered a senior citizen by most but he has an amazing way (when you're on him of course) of making things very difficult for players of a much better caliber than Stak. I hate going against him and usually avoid the match entirely if I believe he'll lose because he just doesn't roll over when he's up to giving 100%. As for Kukushkin, I haven't seen anything from Wawa this hard court season to make me think he's going to have an easy time getting a win here. Maybe he'll come out and smoke him but I'd rather take a chance on the guy who's been grinding away in hard court matches only to go down to deBakker and Mannarino than on Woeful Wawa.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

On luczak ML.....been on a massive slump recently...hope it hits!

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Damn...there is no live streaming for the luczak game ...

[legendmatt34]

gl today. following..

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Anybody have any links to the luczak vs stakhovsky game? would be much appreciated!

[danller]

what is up with azarenka

[SoV]

Azarenka

[haveuseenm]

azarenka just quit she passed out

[SoV]

azarenka just quit she passed out

Holy shit! Hope she's alright like!

[Daveyboy]

Holy shit! Hope she's alright like!

Scary stuff

[EaglesPhan36]

Azarenka = Djokovic

[EaglesPhan36]

Luczak wins the 1st set tie break.


Hoping this match stays tight for my over purposes. Stakhovsky can have a set and then you guys can cash Luczak for the match.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Sounds good EP. Just hopefully not 5 sets....can't handle it tonight

[theplagy]

how about Andreev today shari?

I'm thinking about fading monfils and chase fade until he loses

[nocode1]

Hey guys and girls, just spoke to shari and she told me to tell you all she wont be online for a day or 2, she has no access to a computer.

Long story but im sure she will tell you all when she comes back

[Tommy_de1st]

Tell her she'll be missed