Stacocakes French Open Thread

**Stacocakes** · 06-02-10, 06:29 PM

Agree.You would think that almost everyone expects a Soderling/Nadal rematch final. It's the match I want to see

**noober** · 06-02-10, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Right now, I like both dogs tomorrow to go for a split and a profit with Berdych & Dementieva. Nadal will kill Melzer. Stosur and Jankovic should be competitive. Problem for me is in picking Berdych, that's basically picking a massacre for the final because I think Soderling would give Nadal a slightly better match, then again Nadal might pull out his best match of the year for revenge.

Also very surprised that Soderling hasn't been pounded by the public at this point.

Possibly because recreational betting cannot outweigh the smart money anymore.

**Stacocakes** · 06-03-10, 10:08 AM

Wow surprised at how the matches ended today. Stosur on fire again winning 61 62. She deserves to win this tournmanet now after those saved bp's against Serena last match. Didn't think she could do it. Congrats to all Stosur backers.Can't believe she beat Jankovic so easily. Wasn't even close judging by the scoreline.

Dementieva retires AFTER the end of the first set as always. All of these players know the betting rules. I've mentioned it many many times before.

For tomorrow Nadal is unbettable of course. The Soderling/Berdych match is very interesting. Seems like money is slowly coming in on Soderling pushing him to the -200 mark. I think Soderling is the play for tomorrow. Looks to be written in the cards that Nadal gets his revenge over Soderling for last year.Should be an interesting match.

Hopefully you guys made some money today

**Stacocakes** · 06-03-10, 10:46 AM

Line for the finals is now out.Stosur is -400. Way way way to high. Was considering a Stosur play for the finals but definately not at that price. Maybe I might just take a flyer on the +355 or higher on Schiavone. Might be worth a shot at those odds.Going to think about it. The final isn't for a couple days

**TT22** · 06-03-10, 10:56 AM

Very disappointed with -400. Definitely too high.

**beefcake** · 06-03-10, 11:17 AM

yes staco,great odds,with live betting available with 5 dimes for USA players,a bet on the italian is the way im going,dam straight i would take stosur if schiavone wins the first.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-10, 02:33 PM

Both finals might end up unbettable from a moneyline standpoint. Looking at O/U for tomorrow's men's semis. Under 28.5 for Nadal at plus money is enticing. Also 5Dimes has OVER 3.5 sets for Soderling-Berdych at -185. That's some chalk, but I thing I dig that one.

**Stacocakes** · 06-03-10, 02:37 PM

Under in Nadal does look like a good play.Have a feeling that this match will be a big letdown and that Nadal will beat him very handily in three sets.

**beefcake** · 06-03-10, 07:43 PM

Was thinking the same about the Nadal total...letting melzer win 10 games and still winning your bet is great value..

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-03-10, 08:05 PM

I think I have a decent strategy for that Nadal-Melzer total. Take the UNDER 28.5 at +100. Back it up for half whatever you play the total at with Melzer +8 at +135 currently. Figuring most likely if Nadal does not win in under 28 games, Melzer will have stayed within 8 games on the handicap in 3 sets [just don't see him getting a set at all]. So if that assessment is correct, you'd lose 0.65 units worst case scenario. If the total hits and he blows Melzer out, you still end up one unit. Of course there are always percentages where both could lose, but just something I was scoping out. Not certain on the plays yet, but I do think the Soderling-Berdych over 3.5 sets is going to be a play I parlay with something because of it's high chalk. As long as Berdych brings the serve he's had so far this tournament, I can't see how either guy gets shut down from winning a set and making it at least a 4 set match.

**Stacocakes** · 06-03-10, 10:49 PM

wow the soderling/berdych over 3.5 sets does look good Eagles.

I am going to take Soderling to win 3 sets to 2 at +580 on Betfair. Seems like some great value on that line. Was considering Berdych at +760 for 3-2 sets but I lean towards Soderling to win this match. Hoping this match is a five set battle though which could be really fun to watch. If the match does go to a fifth set this line could be easily hedged for some great profit as well.Will try to play it by ear.

Soderling to win 3 sets to 2 +580

Best of luck tomorrow guys

**JNic** · 06-03-10, 11:10 PM

yea the form both of these guys in, idk how it could end in 3

**MUHerd37** · 06-03-10, 11:56 PM

Just parlay Stosur

**beefcake** · 06-04-10, 08:24 AM

I hope it goes 5 and they beat each other up,while nadal cruises...Got him at -235 before the Qf staco,couldnt believe it..

**TT22** · 06-04-10, 09:18 AM

Just took Nadal under 28,5

**JNic** · 06-04-10, 09:43 AM

yess let's get that rematch!

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 09:48 AM

Wow just getting up. Can't believe the match went 5 with Soderling winning. Wow. My +580 bet cashes huge. Hopefully you guys cashed on Soderling.Will be great to see Rafa get his revenge in the final

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-04-10, 10:09 AM

Great hit brutha!

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 10:13 AM

This Nadal match is going to be very boring I think. That's the vibe I am getting from it so far. Melzer has no star quality at all

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 10:14 AM

Thanks Eagles. Did you end up taking the Soderling over 3.5 sets bet? Did you take the under in the rafa match?

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 10:25 AM

3 bps rafa

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 10:26 AM

Break Nadal

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-04-10, 10:38 AM

Yes took both the OVER 3.5 sets and UNDER 28.5 for Nadal-Melzer. Good start at 6-2. Love to see an early break in the 2nd.

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 10:41 AM

Rafa takes the first set. Will be surprised if Melzer gets a set in this game. 3-0 is now -700

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 10:44 AM

bp rafa

bah blew that one

Think you will be good here Eagles.Melzer looks like he knows he has no chance and this match will not be long

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 10:51 AM

Rafa having a shakey service game here

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 11:04 AM

bp rafa

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 11:05 AM

break Nadal.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-04-10, 11:18 AM

Let's not put any question in this 3rd set, break on the first game and let's roll Rafa.

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 11:22 AM

Theres your early third set break Eagles

**TennisBabe** · 06-04-10, 11:24 AM

Nadal better closer than Rivera

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 11:29 AM

Everyone in agreement that Nadal wins tomorrow its just a matter of how long it takes?

**Stacocakes** · 06-04-10, 11:30 AM

sunday I mean

**JNic** · 06-04-10, 11:35 AM

heart goes for soderling, but head says nadal. it's gonna be rainy and humid on sunday i hear, so maybe soderling can force a longer match

**TennisBabe** · 06-04-10, 11:40 AM

Yea weather forcast not good