Stacocakes French Open Thread

**noober** · 05-20-10, 10:45 AM

Looking forward to your analysis. You can check my pre-draw view on the girls here:

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-handicapping/489251-french-open-wta-analysis.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**Stacocakes** · 05-21-10, 07:45 AM

The men's and ladies draws are now out on www.rolandgarros.com

I am currently reviewing the draws and will have a writeup for the men's draw today and the women's draw tomorrow. Looks like there will be some very interesting matchups here. Can't wait

**Stacocakes** · 05-21-10, 02:11 PM

French Open Men's draw analysis

Another year, another French Open win for Nadal. I know last year Soderling took out an injured Nadal but when you look at Rafa's clay numbers over his career ( 123-4 since 2006) you realize that your are basically gambling on whether or not Nadal is healthy. The outright for Nadal opened up on most books at around -150 and has climbed up to approximately -240 now for Nadal to win. Of course the main reason for this is that Rafa has been his typical amazing self on clay this season and looks to be a lock to win the French Open to cap off the clay court season once again.

Eventhough I feel that this tournament only has one winner, I have still broken down the draw into four sections and will analyze each of them below.

Roger Federer's Quarter

As history has shown us time and time again, we know that we can count on Roger Federer when it matter's, in slams. Roger has made the final of the French Open for the last four years. His current outright odds are fairly decent at +520 so if you are looking for some value as far as an outright then getting the best player in the world at +520 odds is really not to bad. Standing between Roger and the final are Luczak, Fallas, Lopez, Monfils/Wawrinka, Soderling/Cilic and possibly Murray or Tsonga. In a best of five match I will take my chances with Roger against any of these players thats I have mentioned.

Also in Federer's draw are Wawrinka, Monfils, Gulbis, Cilic and Soderling. Robin Soderling played great here last year to make it to the final but he is coming into this tournament having lost 4 of his last 5 matches. He will have to face a very good clay court player in the third round in Montanes and that should be a difficult match for Robin. If he wins that match he will then have to face the winner of the Cilic/Gulbis match which is basically a toss up. The bottom line though is that no matter which of these three player's makes it to the quarterfinals they will not be able to beat Federer to get to the semifinals.

I think this portion of the draw will be won by Roger Federer.

Murray,Isner,Tsonga Quarter

This portion of the draw is really a complete toss-up. There are probably eight players in this quarter that I could see making it to the semifinals and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them did. Andy Murray, the highest ranked seed in this quarter, could win this portion of the draw but the funny thing is that he can also lose in the first round and I wouldn't be surprised. He has probably the hardest first round match of any of the player's in this tournament facing Richard Gasquet. If Murray is able to win that match he will then have to face Juan Ignacio Chela who is a fairly good clay court player. If Murray is able to get past those two matches he will then have to face Baghdatis and then the winner of the Berdych/Isner match. As you can see Murray's round to the semifinals is one of the hardest in this tournament and I am not sure if he will be able to make it there.
Also in this draw is Tsonga and I am really scared about what to think of him here. He had to retire during his last match due to a back problem. He has had time to rest since then but the main concern is how will his back be if he has to play best of five matches every second day for two weeks. With that in mind it is hard to pencil in Tsonga for a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open. A potential upset could be Garcia-Lopez in the third round or possibly Youzhny knocking off Tsonga if he gets to the fourth round.

Two other possibilities from this portion of the draw are Berdych and Isner. Berdych had some injury issues that forced him to withdraw from a Masters event a couple weeks ago but he seems to be ok having played Dusseldorf recently. He will likely face Isner in the third round and that will be an interesting match. They have met once in their careers and that was last year with Isner winning in three sets. I have concerns with Isner's fitness during Grand Slams. He tends to play some long matches and I am not really sure if he has the fitness to go deep in a slam, especially the French Open.

This draw is a complete toss up. I think I am going to go with Murray and Youzhny making it to the quarterfinals with Murray advancing to the semifinals to face Roger Federer. I really have no confidence in that at all but I just have a feeling that Tsonga will be knocked out fairly early in this tournament and that could open the door for Murray to get far here.

Roddick,Djokovic Quarter

Andy Roddick's lack of clay court mathces leading up to this tournament really has me concerned. In the third round Roddick might have to face Juan Monaco and that could be a very tough test for Roddick. He may be able to beat Juan Monaco in a hard match but if he does that means he will likely face David Ferrer in the next round and I think that is where Roddick's tournament will end. Ferrer is just to good on this surface and has been on fire coming into this tournament. The only thing that worries me about Ferrer is that he has played way to much tennis coming into this event. I think that lack of rest will catch up to Ferrer by the quarterfinals where he will likely face Djokovic.

I usually take Djokovic as an outright in most of the tournaments but he has mostly been a disappointment. He always seems to have some type of injury during the Grand Slams and he isn't coming into this match in the greatest of shape having lost two of his last three matches. In the fourth round Djokovic will face the winner of Querrey and Juan Carlos Ferrero. If Djokovic wins this match and advances deep in this tournament it will definitely not be a smooth ride. I think he wins this quarter of the draw but David Ferrer could come up big and possibly make the semifinals here.

Nadal's Quarter

Nadal's draw to the semifinals looks to be very easy for him. He will have to face Zeballos, Hewitt, Bellucci and then possibly Verdasco. I have a feeling that Verdasco is going to be knocked out early in this tournament. He is playing way to much tennis lately and for some reason is even playing the tournament this week which concludes on the eve of opening day at the French Open. I have been reading that Verdasco has a possible arm injury and playing these long matches will definately cause his arm problems. Regardless of whether or not Verdasco does anything in this tournament this quarter of the bracket is Nadal's and it doesn't really matter who else is in it.

There should be some good tennis the next two weeks but I feel the end result will once again be a Nadal/Federer final with Nadal winning the French Open.

Best of luck the next two weeks guys

**MUHerd37** · 05-21-10, 05:42 PM

Staco we are almost there! Can't wait to get this thing started!

**noober** · 05-21-10, 06:10 PM

Good analysis.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-21-10, 07:46 PM

Monaco is really struggling in Dusseldorf - the same left wrist that caused those poor losses earlier in the clay season. Chardy beat him without breaking sweat.

**Totolover1409** · 05-21-10, 08:21 PM

Great Analysis Staco! Let's make some CASHHH

**beefcake** · 05-21-10, 08:42 PM

Great stuff Staco,I sH#t you not,I saw cilic and youzhny at +625000 today to win RG,that is just plain silly,but still to get a top 10 and a top 20 player at those odds gives you a whole world of hedging opps in the Qf or semis regardless of who they play,cause they wont win of course,but you could make a small return.

**raydog** · 05-21-10, 09:41 PM

solid analinguis cakes

**raydog** · 05-21-10, 09:43 PM

lets try that again...

**Goat Milk** · 05-21-10, 11:36 PM

If Gasquet gets by Murray, that will be a huge obstacle for him to overcome right off the bat. If he can win that match, there's no doubt in my mind he'll advance to the quarters

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 02:33 AM

Thanks guys. Best of luck to everyone.Should be a great tournament.

Beefcake +625,000 ??? Those had to have been line errors. Maybe +62,500? In any case you are right that those are great odds for some decent players. I have Youzhny making it to the quarterfinals in my draw so i'm thinking he has a chance to do something here. Cilic has a tough road to the final so I am not as sold on him. Defeating Gulbis, Soderling and then Federer would be very tough for him to do especially since he has always been an inconsistant player. Good luck with both if you choose them Beefcake

Goat Milk that first round matchup between Murray and Gasquet is going to be crazy. Whenever I think of those two playing I remember the Wimbledon match where Gasquet blew the 2 set to love lead over Murray.That was one of the biggest choke jobs I have ever seen. That is definately something that would have to be in the back of Gasquet's mind during this match. Gasquet is playing the better tennis of the two coming into this tournament so I really wouldn't be surprised if either player won at this point. The winner would face Chela, Baghdatis and Isner before reaching the quarterfinals and they are all beatable opponents. I've picked Murray to make it to the semifinals against Federer but i'm scared the pick could be dead right off the bat in this first round match.

**necro** · 05-22-10, 03:44 AM

Good luck!

**beefcake** · 05-22-10, 08:19 AM

Sorry he was 625-1,and now has dropped to 475-1...Alot of weird action on 5 dimes last night,futures taken down then put back up,Im sure alot of people playing big long shots trying to make $$ later..
Alot of people are going for that draw seeing that it is anybodys quarter ..

**MUHerd37** · 05-22-10, 01:09 PM

Gasquet has been playing a lot of tennis lately. He has been playing really good too. Won something like 13 straight matches now and his last 2 tournaments. The first one was challenger series I believe.

**Totolover1409** · 05-22-10, 05:55 PM

Eh boss, what about the women's outrights. Henin? Serena?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-22-10, 06:14 PM

Gasquet is fortunate to get a day off before opening, but I am going to stand by my original thoughts - I think a lot of people are going to be suckered into taking him in the opener against Murray and in futures. Murray isn't great on clay and still is in that general post-Federer kick my ass at a Slam funk, but I think fatigue could catch Gasquet in a best of 5 setting with little rest to recover, especially after having leg cramps against Verdasco. Murray isn't going to tire, so Gasquet will really earn it if he wins.

Like Fed at +510. Also prop with the Nadal-Federer final at +135 is decent. People have made out a lot about Federer's draw and the quality guys in it, but the form of most of them is very questionable with the exception of Gulbis. I still think Federer-Nadal is the most likely finals match-up as usual at RG.

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 06:48 PM

Agree Eagles. Richard Gasquet has always been a choker. He has had a good couple of weeks but he hasn't beaten anyone that is any good. I didn't see the match today but I heard the verdasco/Gasquet was ugly. A quick turnaround for Gasquet here and some added pressure on him from his home country should be enough to make him crack. I am hoping that more people pound Gasquet so Murray's line comes down a bit more so I can get on it.With that being said though, it is still a very tough first round match for Murray. Most guys get challenger calibre players as their first round match but not for Murray here.

Nadal-Federer final at +135 seems like some good value. Federer is going to have to beat some good players to get to the final but in a best of five format I will side with Roger in all cases.

Will have a writeup for the women's draw at some point tonight.Probably after the basketball game.

**JNic** · 05-22-10, 06:55 PM

5dimes opened up flo mayer as -265 and monfils at +225? and i see it on sbrodds too but this is still an error right

**MUHerd37** · 05-22-10, 07:39 PM

Is Roddick not a great pick in the opening rounds vs Jarkko Nieminem? It seems in Staco's write up that he believes that Roddick wins this match. Roddick hasn't played since April 4th and has yet to play a single match on clay and I agree that it could hurt him. However, Nieminen is getting knocked around by just about everyone he plays right now. Roddick at -350 seems great especially in a parlay. I'm having a hard time finding Roddick's records at the French. Matchstat has it all screwed up.

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 07:41 PM

That line has to be an error JNic.I see Monfils at -350 right now.

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 07:45 PM

MUherd Roddick has played recently on clay. I believe he had a clay court exhibition vs Youzhny in which Roddick won and I believe Roddick played one other match as well but I can't seem to find any results anywhere.Just have been reading about it on other forums. From what I have read Roddick is ready,healthy and should be a good play for the early rounds. I have Roddick getting to the fourth round where I believe he loses to Ferrer. Definately think Roddick at -328 over Nieminen is a great play

**MUHerd37** · 05-22-10, 07:50 PM

Thanks Staco. I can't find Roddick playing anything. I like Roddick here as well.

**JNic** · 05-22-10, 08:01 PM

i think the gimeno-traver -460 is a steal against tursunov, this guy hasn't even played in a year?
and schukin -500 against ram is also a steal, ram has minimal experience on clay and just looks downright awful
i think a parlay with these two is profitable.
also some other things that popped out at me,
ouanna +110 vs kubot? a lot of ppl will jump on ouanna and
de bakkers performance at barcelona this really makes him -330 against olivier patience?
also i dont really know this benoit paire? but why did rochus' odds drop from like -300 to -200 so quick?

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 08:04 PM

One of the Rochus player's is well known to be a cheat around the gambling forums.Not really sure if this is the right brother or not. That could be a reason for the price drop

Agree Tursunov hasn't played for ages let alone hasn't played on clay for ages.He has always been bad on this surface. The thing is though JNic -460 for Gimeno-Traver is a definate no play. He should win but those odds are so high and should only be bet,if ever, with a dependable player. Burying it in a parlay though could work I guess but I will pass on that one

Ouanna looks like a great live dog. Had the great performance against Safin I believe it was last year at the French Open. Something to definately look at

**JNic** · 05-22-10, 08:06 PM

yea your right i cant fall for huge odds like that, i really gotta try and pick and choose

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 08:32 PM

Women's draw

I've been looking through this women's draw and basically starting with the third round you could pretty much flip a coin and have probably a better success rate at picking the matches then actually trying to handicap anything. I don't trust many of these women tennis players. I'm not saying they are corrupt just meaning I don't trust them with my money to win a match. With that being said lets look at the draw.

Serena Williams

I'm picking Serena Williams to win this tournament. I don't think she is the best clay court tennis player at all I just would rather have my money on Serena because she is mentally and physically stronger then the rest of the WTA players. To get to the final she will have to beat Pavlyuchenkova, Peer, Henin/Stosur and probably Jankovic. I know Henin is really good on clay but I just have a feeling that she is prime for an early exit here this year. Henin will have to beat Sharapova and Stosur before the quarterfinals and those are going to be two very tough matches. I think she will probably win them both but a possible Serena/Henin matchup in the quarterfinals I think I will side with Serena in that one. Another factor which makes Serena's outright alot better is the fact that serena's is +540 and Henin is +240. Absolutely no value in taking Henin at +240 to win this tournament.

Elena Dementieva

Ok before you laugh hear me out here. We all know that Dementieva is the best player to have never won a slam and she will probably finish up her career without winning a slam. From looking at the draw though I think there is a good chance that she can get to the finals of this tournament. To get there she would have to beat Medina Garrigues, Bondarenko (Not the good one), Martina Sanchez, Venus Williams and either Kuznetsova or Wozniacki. Venus does scare me yes but Dementieva at +2300 has some real value when you look at her draw. Venus is +1300 to win so the gap between the two pricewise is pretty big.

Kuznetsova

Kuznetsova is always a good player to back in a major. Her current odds are +2900 which are huge. She is the defending champion here at the French Open and she has also won one other slam. The reason for her horrible price though is the fact that she has lost 4 of her last 5 matches and if you go back even further, she has lost 6 of her last 10 matches. Definately not someone you want to back as a big favorite in this tournament but as an outright she might be worth taking a shot on. She has a relatively easy draw with Kirilenko, Schiavonne and then Wozniacki or Safarova. Wozniacki has some ankle problems so she might not even get to the quarterfinals so you wouldn't have to worry about her. Safarova also has some injury problems of her own so this quarter of the draw is opening up rather nicely for Kuznetsova. Definately worth taking a look at as an outright.

From doing my draws I have Kleybanova making it to the quarterfinals. She has to beat Ivanovic, Radwanska and Zvonareva so it's not the easiest of paths but it is doable. I just worry about her fitness to play so many matches in the two weeks. Her current odds are +23,900 so maybe its worth a chance haha. Might be worth a sprinkle

Going to sit down and think about the draw a bit more. Going to play at least two of the huge outrights just to make the tournament more interesting. Will be back later with the official picks for this morning and the tournament outrights

**noober** · 05-22-10, 08:50 PM

Roddick definitely played an exhibition tournament and he was down a set to Ouana. Not sure how the match ended though.

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 08:50 PM

Some possible plays for tomorrow:

Ouanna is now +118 at Pinnacle.Good line. Seems to keep on moving which is not good though haha. Definately a play to think about. Will have the home crowd behind him

Fognini -107 over Massu. Seems he is the popular choice for this match. Not really crazy about it though

PInnacle doesn't have parlay's available till I am guessing the morning so can't get any prices for them right now which sucks

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 08:51 PM

Noober I believe Ouana beat Roddick in two sets.Don't quote me on that though

**JNic** · 05-22-10, 08:56 PM

yea ouanna won in 2, i know first set was a tiebreaker

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 10:59 PM

Women's outright plays

Serena Williams +540

Svetlana Kuznetsova +2800

Alisa Kleybanova +23,900

Main play is Serena Williams.I like her to win this.Just picked the other two for some fun. Can't go wrong having the defending champion at +2800. Will be back later with some plays for tomorrow morning.

As was noted earlier I have some Nadal outrights at -178 from before the Madrid final. I can't really see another winner in this tournament so I am just going to keep that play as my only men's outright bet eventhough I didn't get enough down on it as I would have liked to. Going to pass on the current -230 odds and not top it up

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-10, 11:06 PM

Play for sunday morning:

Well the first days of these tournaments are always really bad. It was hard to find some good plays so I am going to do a nice short odds parlay. It has a great return

Parlay Devvarman/Anderson/Ouanna +612

I know it's probably asking alot to hit all three of these plays but it's good for some action for the first day of the tournament. Saw some good matches for monday morning so there will definately be some better plays then. Good luck guys, only a couple hours away

**noober** · 05-22-10, 11:10 PM

I like Devvarman a lot at even odds. I really hope he can get the win to set up a clash against his college rival Isner. Interestingly, Somdev owned Isner in college, especially outdoors.