Stacocakes French Open Thread

**JNic** · 05-23-10, 10:06 AM

ouanna grabs the first set!

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 10:06 AM

Ouanna takes the first set tiebreak

**MUHerd37** · 05-23-10, 10:09 AM

Yeah I think I'm gonna sit out the rest of the matches today since I can't live bet. Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez took out some parlays. Can't believe she lost. She had just won the Rome tournament just 2 weeks ago and was playing great.

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 10:11 AM

Devvarman gets the break

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 10:14 AM

Anderson with the break huge

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 10:18 AM

haha I have ****ed up live bets before many times but I just saw something funny today. Maybe it will turn out in his favor but someone backed Kubot at 1.01 for $704. That means someone bet $704 to win $7.04. The guy obviously wanted to Lay both players at 1.01 and not back them so he screwed up it looks like.If he loses that it would be a tough loss though haha

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 10:34 AM

I've always had a thing for Schnyder.Something about her

**JNic** · 05-23-10, 11:05 AM

damnit... ouanna drops second set breaker

**emeka** · 05-23-10, 11:42 AM

leans for tommorow?

**beefcake** · 05-23-10, 11:45 AM

Come on Somdev!!! Take out this clay court chump!! Wanna see an UVA/UGA grudge match!!

**JNic** · 05-23-10, 12:36 PM

ouanna wins in 4!

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 12:37 PM

Looks like Devvarman is going to take out the +600 parlay. Geez. Ouanna wins in four sets. Good win for him. Should have just bet him straight up I guess

Tsonga just barely gets by Brands. He won't be in this tournament long if he plays like that in the next rounds.

**MUHerd37** · 05-23-10, 12:41 PM

Tsonga hasn't been playing that well lately anyway it seems.

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 12:41 PM

Devvarman loses in five sets.Parlay done. Was close

Haven't had a chance to really look at tomorrow's card yet. I know that I will definately be betting Murray and Roddick tomorrow but not sure who else.Will be looking at the card once the baseball games are done tonight

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 06:21 PM

Some possible leans for tomorrow:

Bellucci -170 over Llodra
Isner -342 over Golubev
Monfils -362 over Mayer
Oudin +236 over Medina Garrigues. Oudin has been losing left and right lately but those are great odds

I have already locked in Murray -175 and I was going to bet Roddick over Nieminen as well but it looks like the match has been moved until tuesday morning so I haven't bet Roddick yet.

Will probably pass on Bellucci in the end. A possible Isner/Monfils parlay looks like a really good bet to me for tomorrow. There are no tennis parlays available till later in the night so I can't get the odds for the bet right now but it is probably the play that i am going to make. I might also take a chance on Oudin at +236. She has been horrible in the recent past having lost 5 of her last 6 matches but it might be worth a shot at her big price. Will think about it tonight

Do you guys like anything for tomorrow?

**ji03** · 05-23-10, 07:03 PM

I like Troicki over Robredo tomorrow.

**Phillth** · 05-23-10, 08:17 PM

whats up with Ram/Schukin?

**JNic** · 05-23-10, 08:18 PM

bellucci over llodra im def going to take, the guy is ready to prove himself on his fav surface. bellucci def will pull this out

**JNic** · 05-23-10, 08:20 PM

this is ram/schukin analysis, ram has never won a clay court atp match in his career. he decides to play challengers in the us instead of go on the claycourt tour. schukin is coming off of winning a clayclourt challenger and his fav surface is clay. schukin -500 or so is a great add to a parlay

**MUHerd37** · 05-23-10, 08:21 PM

Is there anything wrong with Stosur? She is -460 against Simona Halep. Stosur has been rolling on clay as of late.

**Phillth** · 05-23-10, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by JNic

this is ram/schukin analysis, ram has never won a clay court atp match in his career. he decides to play challengers in the us instead of go on the claycourt tour. schukin is coming off of winning a clayclourt challenger and his fav surface is clay. schukin -500 or so is a great add to a parlay

thank you sir.

**Phillth** · 05-23-10, 08:24 PM

why does ram even play the french open if he doesnt give a shite about clay.seems like a dick move to take up a spot.

**JNic** · 05-23-10, 08:26 PM

can someone tell me why murray/gasquet is not on the main court? they put monfils/flo mayer instead..

**JNic** · 05-23-10, 08:28 PM

dont just load up on schukin moneyline though, we talking about a guy ranked 190 or something. im really not a ram fan though, he doesnt have much skills and hes lucky enough to get someone like schukin first round, incredible. i think im too confident in schukin though, he should win

**MUHerd37** · 05-23-10, 08:33 PM

Anyone Like Feliciano Lopez -325 over Julian Reister?

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 09:04 PM

jl03 Troicki looks like a good play over Robredo. Robredo has some lower back problems right now and has lost two matches in a row coming into the French Open. Troicki is defiantely a live dog.

MUherd I thought Stosur's price would be alot higher as well. I think she is going to go fairly far in this tournament. Halep has had some good results in the last few weeks but she hasn't really beaten anyone good so those wins don't mean to much. Stosur has been playing well and beating quality opponents. Definately think Stosur would be a good play to add to a parlay.

Lopez is not a good play I don't think. He has been having some back problems and his overall game is really not that great so taking him as a big favorite is never a good play. Taking him in a situation where he is a decent sized dog, that might be a better time to take him.

I am also very surprised that Murray/Gasquet is not on Philippe Chartrier. I can see Federer and Serena's matches being on that court but why is wozniacki first up on that court?Weird. Looks as though they have to have two mens matches and two women's matches each day. I think that Murray match could be the best first round match here

Would definately pass on the Ram/Schukin match if I was you guys.That price is way way to big to back for a player like Schukin

**birdmanweezy** · 05-23-10, 10:27 PM

i agree stouser would be great as a thrid leg to a parlay..I still think she wins it outright...belluci is solid but maybe over priced a little bit....alot of live dogs tomorrow including Troicki...Clement....Andujar....Berrer.. .Lorenzi..and Lastly the strongest dog Gasquet....my stat analysis ive been running has gasquet at 54.50% and Murray at 52.67%...the analysis includes all service, return, break stats, and also form on clay this year and in career. Out of the people I ran today who are playing in matched that arnt over -500 Gasquet has the highest percentage..with Murray being 3rd behind Giraldo..will be an excellent match for sure! Good luck cakes will have my own write ups soon

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-23-10, 10:35 PM

Stosur-Murray parlay for me tomorrow Staco. Also rolling with Paire over Rochus, small shot on Tursunov & Malisse.

Can't back Bellucci personally, he's a talent but has been so bad lately. Llodra was someone I considered taking, but wound up passing. On home soil, he could make a match of it.

**sportscash** · 05-23-10, 11:09 PM

Good luck

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 11:12 PM

Birdman agree that some of those dogs do have a chance. I just can't see Gasquest beating Murray tomorrow.

Also something to think about with your serve stats that you incorporated into a model, the stats could be misleading because certain players might have their stats inflated or deflated based on the level of their competition. If a player gets to play one of the rochus brothers all of the time his playing stats would look great. On the other hand if a player has to play a top 10 player often his stats may be slightly worse.

I am liking Stosur more and more when you guys keep talking about her. Would be great to add to a parlay I agree. You aren't liking Isner or Monfils Eagles? Both have prices that are relatively good for a parlay. I am going to parlay Isner/Monfils and Stosur I think. Just going to have to wait till I can get the parlay in on Pinnacle.

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-10, 11:17 PM

Plays for tomorrow:

Parlay of Isner/Monfils/Stosur -103

Murray -175 from earlier

Going to pass on Bellucci and Oudin

Best of luck tomorrow guys

**JNic** · 05-24-10, 06:04 AM

luckily you passed on oudin, she looked good first set taking break chances but she just wasnt effective returning first serves...

**MUHerd37** · 05-24-10, 06:39 AM

Florian Mayer is out against Monfils. Mayer is being replaced by a guy named Deiter I believe. Feliciano Lopez got abused.

**MUHerd37** · 05-24-10, 06:54 AM

Now it's saying that Monfils will be playing D. Kindlmann

**TT22** · 05-24-10, 07:29 AM

Took Murray as well.