Stacocakes Sony Ericsson Open thread

**Stacocakes** · 03-29-10, 09:58 PM

That is a great pic of vera eagles

**Stacocakes** · 03-29-10, 10:06 PM

mad vera in full effect sweet

**Stacocakes** · 03-29-10, 10:08 PM

break Henin.Probably over now

**raydog** · 03-30-10, 04:46 AM

another quawwidy thread cakes. not overly disgusting

**obie** · 03-30-10, 05:22 AM

Year Gonzo! Great night it turned out to be.. Lets kill the damn bookies today! Who like's Tsonga?

**Sforz** · 03-30-10, 05:54 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Henin is 5-0 vs Zvonareva in their careers. All matches 2007 earlier though. Henin's serve cannot be trusted at this point really and I would rather lean to Zvonareva or no play at all in this match because there is a decent payout of +221 if vera wins. Not worth it right now to lay -242 on Henin. I'm personally passing on the match though if I had a gun to my head I think Henin does win.Just not worth the price

i cashed henin, thanks to cakes.

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 07:50 AM

Just playing around with some parlay odds today and I am seeing this:

Federer, Tsonga, Nadal and Venus pays +206. Very nice. If you take out Tsonga it pays +112. HMMMMM
Have to admit that I am not feeling Tsonga 100% here. Radwanska/Williams head to head is 4-1 Venus. I feel the Federer and Nadal bets are fairly safe here but it's just a matter of putting another play with those two that is becoming difficult. I think Venus should win and Tsonga should win as well but it's just a matter of which one to include in the parlay. Here is what I am going with:

Federer/Nadal/Venus parlay which pays +114 right now

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 07:57 AM

Was just looking at some other stuff and did a 8 player parlay of the favorites to see what it would pay and Federer,Cilic,Soderling,Tsonga, Nadal,Almagro,Wickmayer and Venus pays +2217 haha. Its not out of the realm of possibility that this could happen. Have seen it done before. If you take out the iffy matchups and just go with Fed,Soderling, Tsonga, Nadal, Wickmayer and Venus it pays +683.

**ringemup** · 03-30-10, 08:28 AM

gonzalez could get soderling today.

**obie** · 03-30-10, 08:34 AM

I like Tsonga, only because of his good serve. The serve is so important on this surface i think.

**Boner_18** · 03-30-10, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by obie

I like Tsonga, only because of his good serve. The serve is so important on this surface i think.

JCF dismantled Isner's 1st serve and won 57% of 2nd serve points. A good serve is only as good as your opponent is not a returner. Taking my chances, got JCF at +205. That is a 30%+ implied win %, if they played this match 100 times I think JCF could win 31.

**obie** · 03-30-10, 09:29 AM

Isner did show up in that match! And when he finally did it in the 2.set, he thought he just could take it home easy.. But, I would rather go for the over 2,5 set @ 2,50 ..

**tailmypicks** · 03-30-10, 09:58 AM

JCF's high ranking is all made on clay court......i dont think he can beat tsonga. Isner and Karlovic are one trick guys. Won't give too much credit to JCF beating isner;s serve.So Tsonga for me.

Like Wickmayer too but i've never won betting in a match involving bartoli. Last year she won a big tourney in the us open series knocking out big names but in indian wells this month she looked fat couldnt move against radwanska. Too tough. I'm taking Tsonga and if he wins a little on wickmayer later.

**obie** · 03-30-10, 10:01 AM

Exactly. I will watch the first few parties, an then make a bet..

**tailmypicks** · 03-30-10, 10:34 AM

Tsonga cruising so far

**obie** · 03-30-10, 10:47 AM

Look at that serve! i told you

**obie** · 03-30-10, 10:59 AM

What abouut verdasco tonight @ 2,20 ? God I love this bet .. Verdasco is only good when playing with a lot of confidence, and that win yesterday was really good to him! Its a shame not to try it. Verdasco @ 2,20 (2x)

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 11:01 AM

Tsonga pounding JCF though JCF has 3 bps to get the break back in the second set

Figured the match would be alot closer then this like you guys thought. Still a ways to go

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 11:08 AM

and tsonga gets the break right back

**tailmypicks** · 03-30-10, 11:16 AM

Tsonga cash so early in the day is burning holes in my pocket.....might play a little on berdych. He really has a chance against the fed of yesterday i think.

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 11:21 AM

Agreed TMP Berdych does have a chance against Fed if Fed plays like crap but Berdych can't get it done against the big boys. He crashes and burns all of the time. I think Federer beats him here though -450 for Federer though a low line for him,is just not worth the slim chance that Berdych has of winning.

If I had known that Tsonga would destroy JCF like this I would have included him in the parlay. Geez if I lose my parlay today because I took venus instead of TSonga I am going to be pissed off

**Boner_18** · 03-30-10, 11:34 AM

Yeah Tsonga whooped him, though it might have been a different story if JCF converted some of those breakers. I still think he wins that match >31/100 but c'est la vie, lost another.

**obie** · 03-30-10, 11:34 AM

Guys take almagro NOW!

**MUHerd37** · 03-30-10, 12:02 PM

Damn I woke up way too late to get on the early action. I wanted to take Tsonga and Almagro. Wasn't it Berdych that damn near upset Federer at the US Open a couple years ago??? Got up like 2 sets to none and then Federer came back. It was something like that.

**tailmypicks** · 03-30-10, 12:12 PM

yes that was last year's aussie open

**obie** · 03-30-10, 12:54 PM

Almagro WON! nice..

**MUHerd37** · 03-30-10, 12:56 PM

5Dimes has live tennis betting up today. Just Venus match right now.

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 01:30 PM

Nice to get home and see Venus won easily in straight sets.Good start to the parlay

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 01:31 PM

Roddick match coming up next.No play on that.Odds on Roddick are ridiculous

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 01:33 PM

Fish 2/14 first serves haha

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 01:38 PM

Fish is a mug. I can't believe he beat Murray and cost me a parlay and an outright in the process
Fish looks so out of shape, at least for a tennis player. He wears the worst outfits

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 01:40 PM

anyone putting a bit on becker just for fun?

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 01:42 PM

Trainer for Fish. All of the sudden can barely walk.Cramps or something I am guessing

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 01:43 PM

Fish's odds at +640 now wow

**Stacocakes** · 03-30-10, 01:50 PM

+1000 now

Looks like he will bitch out and quit the match so all bets are voided