Stacocakes Sony Ericsson Open thread

**Boner_18** · 03-22-10, 02:16 PM

GL Cakes. Indian Wells was wild. I made a decent amount in qualies and gave it all back in the main draw. Highlights I see are a Roddick/Ljuby rematch in the 3rd round, Isner/Tsonga 3rd round. I want to keep my eye on Berdych, your boy Ancic and for some reason Troiki....

Also, notice that Earnest Gulbis is not a WC (not ranked high enough last year) and is forgoing qualies to play a challenger on clay... Might bet him in that.

**michalis** · 03-22-10, 02:17 PM

yeah nice catch boner gulbis should be golden in qualies

**Stacocakes** · 03-22-10, 02:48 PM

If we have learnt anything from last week's BNP Paribas Open it is that anything can happen in tennis. How Ivan Ljubicic won is beyond me. The guy has been irrelevant in the tennis world for many years now. Used to be as high as third overall I believe but that was back at the point where it was Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal and then everyone else. He just happened to be at the top of the heap at that time. In women's tennis I can understand the big upsets but last week I was very surprised that the winner of a master's event was not a player ranked in the top five in the world. I believe this week order will be restored on the ATP tour and the winner of this even will be one of the top guns. With that being said, i've split up the men's draw into four quarters again to make it easier to follow.
Quarter 1 - Tsonga, Isner, Nadal and Ferrer
Some pretty good player's in this quarter of the draw. On hard courts you have to always love Tsonga. The thing that worries me though with Tsonga is that I am not sure he is 100%. He was pretty much man-handled by Robin Soderling last week at Indian Wells so that is always something to have in the back of your mind when thinking about backing Tsonga. He should be able to get into the fourth round where he will face John Isner who played well last week. Tsonga should be able to beat Isner but in the quarterfinals he will have to face Rafa Nadal and that is something that I am not to sure about. Nadal and Tsonga have faced eachother five times in their careers and Nadal has won four of those matchups. When looking at this bracket I dont' see much that would get in the way of a Tsonga/Nadal quarterfinal matchup. Isner has a chance to beat Tsonga but I don't think either of them would beat Nadal so I am definately siding with Nadal coming out of this quarter of the bracket and ending up in the semifinals. As far as the outright market goes, the odds for Nadal and Tsonga will be drastically different so if you are looking for more bang for your buck then taking Tsonga as an outright would have the bigger payout.
Quarter 2 - Roddick, Monfils, Djokovic......Ljubicic?
Ljubicic had his 15 mins of fame last week at the BNP Paribas so he can once again go and vanish into oblivion. The sad thing is that his draw actually is pretty good and he should be able to get to the fourth round to face Andy Roddick again but LJubicic might have the hangover from his win last week so I can't really see him winning it all again. The universe would probably be ending if Ljubicic could capture two masters series events in a row. Definate no play for him here on the outright market.
Roddick has a pretty favorable draw as well. If he faces Ljubicic in the fourth round he should have some extra motivation to get some revenge on Ljubicic for the loss in the BNP Paribas Open last week. I like the possibility of Roddick as an outright alot here since you can always get a decent price on him and his draw seems like he should get into the quarterfinals for sure. At that point he would probably face Novak Djokovic who surprisingly has beaten Roddick only two times out of the six times they have played eachother in their careers. That stat makes the Roddick outright look better and better by the minute. The only obstacle between Djokovic and the quarterfinals will probably be Monfils who continues to be a big disapointment every tournament he is in. He is the talent to win tournaments but is more concerned about putting on a good show for the fans as opposed to actually winning an event. He has faced Djokovic four times in his career and has yet to beat him so I think Djokovic definately gets to the quarterfinals where he will face Andy Roddick.
Quarter 3 - Federer, Verdasco, Cilic......
Roger Federer is walking into the quarterfinals of this tournament with nothing standing in his way. Sadly this will probably be reflected in his low outright odds. He will probably face Berdych in the fourth round by Tomas will probably just crumble in that match like he does whenever he plays someone that is good. At that point Federer will face either Verdasco or Cilic in the quarterfinals. Neither player has ever beaten him in a match and I don't expect it to happen this time around either. Look for Federer to get to the semifinals for sure from this quarter of the bracket. If you want to hope for another Federer upset, which isn't highly unlikely since Roger only seems to get up for the Slams these days, then taking a chance on Cilic or Verdasco as an outright wouldn't be that bad of a play. You can probably get really good odds on either of them. They have played eachother 5 times in their careers and Verdasco has won three of the matches. Its a complete toss up to me which of those players would win to face Federer in the quarterfinals.
Quarter 4 - Murray, Wawrinka, Gonzalez, Soderling
I like Andy Murray alot here this week. Sadly I believe that when the outrights come out he will have his usual odds of +400 or so and that is just such a bad number. Murray will likely face Lopez and Wawrinka on his path to the quarterfinals and I don't think he will have much trouble with either player. What could happen though is a possibly rematch of last week's Soderling/Murray match in the quaterfinals here and that will be a great match to watch. I think Murray will be out to get revenge and will beat Soderling if he is given the chance to play him this week. The only other player that could possibly face Murray in the quaterfinals is Fernando Gonzalez. Fernando has been busy playing clay court matches so it will be interesting to see how he transitions to the hardcourts here. He has faced Soderling 8 times in his career and has won four of the last five matches that they have played. Most of these results were from many years ago though and Soderling is a totally different player now at this point in his career. I favor Soderling to defeat Gonzalez in the fourth round and advance to the quarterfinals where he loses to Andy Murray.
With no outright numbers currently up I can't finalize any outright bets. From an analysis of the quarters though I am definately leaning towards Andy Roddick, Andy Murray, Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer being the four semifinalists. Federer will have no value as an outright so I will probably just bet the other three once I see the odds.
I'll be back with the women's draw tomorrow. Best of luck the next couple of weeks guys. Let's make some money

**Stacocakes** · 03-22-10, 02:56 PM

Good luck this week guys.Look foward to talking tennis

What is it with these tournaments setting up Henin and Dementieva right off the bat all of the time. Tough to see one of the better players get knocked out of the tournament in the second round.

**Boner_18** · 03-22-10, 03:57 PM

I'd take Isner against Tsonga even as a slight fave. He has a recent head-to-head win, served well (at least in the first two sets) against Nadal last week and while Tsonga really blew it and didn't look comfortable against Sodes.

I know you aren't saying Tsonga will win but just want to tout the big American before they meet. Also, I completely agree with the Monfils analysis. As much as I like to watch him play, pick a good spot and fade away with that guy.

**beefcake** · 03-22-10, 11:09 PM

good write ups cakes as usual,in depth and your opinion for me I respect alot..

Once again im going to put a future on cilic,I would think the last 2 tourneys for him having being subpar will motivate him.

**Stacocakes** · 03-23-10, 03:09 AM

Boner, totally agree with Tsonga. I could see Isner beating him in that spot. I think Isner is probably a good player to bet at a nice dog price in a particular match but probably isn't the best to choose as an outright at this point. If he beats Tsonga he will have to face Nadal and then the winner of the Roddick/Djokovic match in the semi's. I can't see him winning both of those matches.

Thanks Beefcake. Look forward to another week and a half of tennis talk. I can definately see Cilic beating Baghdatis and Verdasco but I don't see him beating Federer in the quaterfinals. But once again how can one ever say that taking someone as a +1900 dog to win the tournament is a bad bet?If Ljubicic can win a tournament like last week anything is possible really. If Cilic can keep his head on straight he can do some damage here and who knows how far he can go. From one day to the next though you never know what you will get with him.

Some prices are out right now for the outright markets on the mens side. Not to much has been bet yet on Betfair on this market so I am not really sure how accurate these prices will be. From what I see now Federer is +220, Nadal is +400, Djokovic is +880 WOW, Murray is +600, Soderling is +1200 and Roddick is +1400. That's a very nice price on Djokovic. I am going to consider that possibly.

I'll be back tomorrow with an analysis of the women's draw and my mens/ladies outright bets for the tournament

**michalis** · 03-23-10, 06:09 AM

tsonga at his best can easily beat isner, but he's not been in top form lately

**Stacocakes** · 03-23-10, 02:26 PM

Wow the prices for the mens side have become better overnight with more liquidity on Betfair. Can now get Federer +255, Nadal +440, Djokovic +1300, Murray +660, Soderling +1650 and Roddick +1800.
At these prices, you have to take Djokovic. +1300 is an amazing price for him. Was going to take Roddick but Djokovic is the better player and his odds are just so much higher then I thought they would be so I will take Novak here. On the other side of the draw I am going to take Andy Murray at +660. Also some great value in that line. Murray is usually around +400 or +500 to win these tournaments so +660 is definately a great price.

Outrights:

Novak Djokovic +1300
Andy Murray +660

**Stacocakes** · 03-23-10, 03:02 PM

Womens draw

Another women's tournament and that means another way to take 3 or 4 months off of your life. The stress from watching women's tennis is really to much to take sometimes. I found it alot more fun to make a bet and then to walk away and not even watch the match for the last couple of days of the BNP Paribas tournament and my bets were winning and my stress level was reduced. Might have to try that again for this one. The winner in women's tennis these days is the girl that can hold her serve one time in the match it seems. Breaks left and right. With that being said we bet women's tennis because there are some juicy odds, especially in the outrights market. I've seperated the draw into quarters and will analyze each quarter below:

Quarter 1 - Jankovic, Zheng, Stosur, Clijsters, Azarenka, Peer

Unlike the men's side where you can find two or three player's in a particular quarter that will likely make it to the quarterfinals the women's bracket is wide open. Jankovic is coming off an impressive victory at the BNP Paribas last week so she will likely be suffering the "winner's hangover" for this tournament. With that being said she still has a decent draw facing Stosur in the fourth round and then likely Clijsters or Azarenka in the quarterfinals. I think some of the top players will rebound in this tournament after disappointing showings at the BNP Paribas. In particular I like Clijsters to win this quarter of the bracket. To do that Kim must defeat Kudryavtseva, Azarenka and Stosur/Jankovic. Kim has defeated Azarenka the lone time they have played last year and Victoria's inability to get it done in big situations makes one think that this quarter of the bracket is Clijsters for the taking. Currently Clijsters odds are +740 to win it all and I think those odds are great. I haven't pulled the trigger on an outright yet but that is a definate consideration.

Quarter 2 - Dementieva, Henin, Kleybanova, Zvonareva, Wozniacki

This quarter appears to be a mess. For the second time in recent months Dementieva draws Henin in the second round of a tournament. Disapointing because you would like to see these players get far in these tournaments because they are both among the best women players in the world. Henin won the last meeting between these two but the match was very tight. I really have no idea who will win it this time and that is why I am going to pass on taking either of those players as an outright. The winner of that match will likely face Zvonareva who is very tough to beat. I'm having trouble deciding who win come out of this portion of the quarter and get to the quarterfinals. Dementieva's serve is letting her down at this point and she is always known to be fragile mentally so I would have to think Henin will get by her again in a close match and will probably defeat Zvonareva to make it to the quarterfinals but I think I will pass on taking either of the girls as an outright. Just to much up in the air. In the other part of the quarter we have Wozniacki, Pavlyuchenkova and Schiavone. Wozniacki should win her matches and get to the quarterfinals but i've seen way to many times when a player gets very far in a tournament or wins a tournament the week before and then bows out early in the next tournament. With that being said I am going to pass on any outrights from this quarter of the women's draw though if I had to choose I would take Henin defeating Wozniacki to make it to the semifinals against Clijsters.

Quarter 3 - Kuznetsova, Wickmayer, Li, Bondarenko

This quarter of the draw isn't as sexy as the other ones. I really see nothing in the way of Kuznetsova reaching the quaterfinals except for maybe Bondarenko. She will face Szavay in the third round and then Bondarenko in the fourth round. She is 2-3 lifetime vs Bondarenko but Kuznetsova is definately the better player of the two. Both player's really aren't playing that well coming into this tournament so it's probably a toss up who win's that match. The other side of the quarter has Wickmayer and Li. There is nothing in the way of these two meeting in the fourth round. Li Na is coming into this tournament on a three match losing streak and is having back issues so you would have to favor Wickmayer reaching the quarterfinals at this point. Kuznetsova and Wickmayer have only played once and Kuznetsova won the match though it was a close three setter that ended with a tiebreak. The odds for Kuznetsova to win are currently +1200 and the odds for Wickmayer are +3500 so you can defiantely tell which of the two would be the better value outright at this point.

Quarter 4 - Venus, Petrova, Pennetta, Ivanovic, Radwanska

I had a feeling that Venus Williams was going to win this tournament and I was prepared to bet on her as an outright but her odds are only +370 and that is very disappointing. She is coming into this event playing some amazing tennis winning back to back tournaments but I was just hoping her odds would be a bit better then +370. I believe another factor in her odds being this low is the fact that her draw is fairly easy. She will face Petrova in the fourth round, who she has beaten all four times they have faced eachother and then she would face Radwanska or Pennetta in the quarterfinals. Against Radwanska she is 4-1 lifetime and against Pennetta she is 3-4 lifetime with Pennetta having won the last meeting between the two. I think Radwanska will defeat Pennetta in the fourth round so that should set up a match between Radwanska and Venus which Venus should win. In the semifinals Venus would face Kuznetsova who is 4-5 lifetime vs Venus. The more I think about Venus in this spot the more I am starting to like her to win this tournament. Also factor in that she has a "home court advantage" with the tournament in the USA and it makes her seem an even better bet. I am going to wait on her odds for a day to see if they improve from the current +370 that they are at right now.

Outrights:
Kim Clijsters +760 (Has moved while I have been writing this)
Venus Williams ( Price to be determined)

Best of luck with the tournament. Should be some great tennis

**Stacocakes** · 03-23-10, 03:04 PM

I apologize for the mens outright thread I posted earlier. Seems that when I copy and paste it from my SBR blog that it gets rid of all of the bolding and spacing and just sticks the whole thing together in one big mess. I tried to edit it today but it won't let me. I made sure to make the women's draw easier to read on here

**Stacocakes** · 03-24-10, 11:01 AM

Plays for day 1:

I like to lose money on Igor Andreev because he has a good forehand. He is playing Xavier Malisse who has seemingly been around forever. The line on Andreev is -105 and that is the only reason why I am taking a chance here.If he was any more of a favorite I would pass. Xavier is 4-6 in his last 10 and had a 3 match losing streak coming into the qualifiers for this tournament. I'll take the better player with Andreev -105 here.

I really couldn't find anything else that stood out to me.Some really good lines on players such as Becker but he is basically losing every match coming into this tournament so I will just pass. There are many bets available like that today that I will just pass on for now.

Venus Williams is now +380. Not the greatest number but I will take that as my other women's outright.

Best of luck today guys

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-24-10, 11:13 AM

You could have had him at +105 or so this morning. I don't trust him at all on the surface right now. He's done zero on hard courts in 2010. For the price as you said, he's the better of the two maybe, but I ranked this a big pass. Good luck though. I'm still digging in for Kubot at +190 against Nalbandian.

**Stacocakes** · 03-24-10, 02:08 PM

Andreev wins 64 64.

Good start to the tournament.
Nalbandian is still struggling to regain form after his long layoff so Kubot is definately worth a shot.

Glad I didn't bet much else. Was thinking Chakvetadze and she lost in 3 sets.Its unbelievable how she just dropped off the face of the earth. Was considering Garcia-Lopez and he won in straight sets. Ancic is about to lose in straight sets to Chardy. Still liked Becker for some reason but laid off that match. Just going to take a pass on the rest of the day and try not to force anything

**Boner_18** · 03-24-10, 05:01 PM

I laid off completely today. Just couldn't find anything I liked, though I thought about Kubot and Mathieu. I see a couple for tomorrow though.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-24-10, 06:45 PM

Nalbandian killed Kubot. I stayed away from that one. Wound up winning with Dent and hit a couple overs. Tennis carried me past losses in soccer today. Rarity!

**Stacocakes** · 03-24-10, 07:04 PM

Blake loses the first set of his match haha. He was up a break that set to. Krajinovic was a +1000 dog. Would have been nice to have backed the dog and then hedged it out after the first set

**Stacocakes** · 03-24-10, 08:31 PM

Blake pulls out the match in three sets. Blake is unbackable at odds over -200

**Stacocakes** · 03-24-10, 10:06 PM

OUdin has to be the most overrated women tennis player ever.Has one good tournament and the media hypes her up to be the next big thing. Granted she has had some injuries but that was recent

Nothing official yet for tomorrow. Possible leans:

Petzschner -129 over Sweeting. Like this one alot. Sweeting has been playing challengers, and not doing well in them, and Petzschner has played well but ran into some better players along the way losing to Isner, Kohlschreiber and Karlovic recently. He seems to be beating all of the lesser players though so he should be able to beat Sweeting.

Anderson -126 over Mello. Both players playing relatively well coming into this match. I like Anderson's serve on this surface.No head to head matches to date.

Bondarenko -120 over Dulko. Bondarenko is the better player of the two but is not coming into this tournament playing very well having lost 4 of her last 5 matches since the good run at the Australian Open. Head to head Bondarenko is 3-2 lifetime vs Dulko.

3 leans for tomorrow.Nothing official yet.

Do you guys see anything that you like for tomorrow?

**obie** · 03-25-10, 04:04 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Bondarenko -120 over Dulko. Bondarenko is the better player of the two but is not coming into this tournament playing very well having lost 4 of her last 5 matches since the good run at the Australian Open. Head to head Bondarenko is 3-2 lifetime vs Dulko.

Bondarenko is the better player here, but Dulko can sometimes play som very good tennis! I think im gonna stay away, but Bondarenko should win the game, as you are saying. She has to prove to herself that she can get out of this crise!

**Boner_18** · 03-25-10, 06:35 AM

On Petzy, Mello and Berrer, reasoning in my blog. Although I got them all $.05 or so cheaper last night.

**Stacocakes** · 03-25-10, 10:51 AM

Big line movement on Petzschner. Yesterday he was -129 on Pinnacle and is now currently -108. Not that I am complaining. I will take him today.

Boner I checked out your blog and you have talked me out of the Anderson bet.I think I am going to pass on that especially since his price has climbed from -126 to -148.

Bondarenko was -120 last night and is now -132. Bad line movement there. I am going to pass on her as well.

Just one play today. Petzschner -108

Best of luck

**Stacocakes** · 03-25-10, 11:27 AM

Lisicki retired in her match today AFTER the first set was complete. I know from reading other forums that there were alot of people on Lisicki since the price was so good. Feel bad for those people right now.Burial

**Stacocakes** · 03-25-10, 01:49 PM

Anderson destroys Mello in 2 sets. Since I decided not to bet this match I am not surprised that this happened. Oh well

No monumental upsets yet today

**Boner_18** · 03-25-10, 03:03 PM

Sorry bout that man. Shoulda listened to EP on that one, thought he was in good form at Indian Wells and the clay people he beat up on in the SA clay season were top performers (namely Bellucci). Hopefully I am not the jinx on Petz. Should start soon.

**JNic** · 03-25-10, 03:45 PM

petz is dominating on serve, i wish there was a link to watch though

**Boner_18** · 03-25-10, 04:00 PM

Wow. I watched the scores for the first and was on serve in the second. I turned away for a bit and came back and he is serving for the match. WTG Petzy.

**Stacocakes** · 03-25-10, 04:03 PM

Petz win's easily in straight sets. Good to see that most were on him

**Stacocakes** · 03-25-10, 04:43 PM

Pennetta is losing 5-0 in the third.Her getting knocked out will be great for the Venus Williams outright. She was one of the players in that quarter that had a chance against Venus.

**obie** · 03-25-10, 05:09 PM

Good call we didnt play bondarenko!

**Stacocakes** · 03-25-10, 05:17 PM

Wow didn't even notice that match ended Obie. Ya its a good thing most passed on Bondarenko.

Betting tennis is like running through a mine field. So far so good through day 2

**obie** · 03-25-10, 05:18 PM

Lets look at a game tomorrow! I really like Florian Mayer to beat Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber did OK performance against poor Djokovic last week, but we shouldnt lay to much in that match. I THINK kohlschreiber will underestimate Mayer, because he nearly beatet Djoko.. Will of course be tjecking how the lines are moving before I pick

Thoughts?

**Stacocakes** · 03-25-10, 10:41 PM

Obie I was thinking that you might be on to something with that play until I saw that Mayer was only +143 dog.Figured he would be more of an underdog then that. KOhlschreiber is coming in having lost 4 of his last 5 matches so he is not exactly playing his best tennis right now. Mayer just won a challenger tournament and won his opening round match here so he is probably in better form right now then Kohlschreiber. With that being said I don't think its really worth the risk with the low odds you would be recieving on Mayer, in my opinion. If I wanted to take a chance on Mayer in this match I would like more of a payout. What I will agree with you on though is that if you are going to make a play on this match it's either Mayer or no play. Kohl can't be trusted right now.

From looking at the odds there isn't much that is really jumping out at me for tomorrow. Some possible leans I have are as folows:

Benneteau -159 over Stakhovsky. Just a play based on Julien being the better player. Not really much else there. Just debating whether or not I have enough faith in him to bet him.

Was considering blake over Bellucci but Blake barely got by his first round opponent and really should never be backed as a big favorite.Will probably pass on that one.

Early rounds right now so the favorites are a little to pricey on the mens side.

Was possibly considering Dementieva at +141 over Henin. Rarely do I bet against Justine though so not sure if I am going to make the play. They have played 12 times in the past and Justine has won 10 of those matches. Yikes. Maybe Dementieva isn't a good play afterall.

Was possibly looking at Oudin +241 over Zvonareva. I don't really think Oudin has it in her to win the match but crazy things happen when she has her home crowd behind her as we have seen in the past and she might be able to pull an upset here.........forget it.I don't think I can even convince myself that she will win this.Pass

Anything you guys like? I can't really find much worth taking a chance on. Will think about it overnight and come back with some plays if I decide to make any

**smitch124** · 03-25-10, 11:06 PM

Don't bet on Beeneteau, I beat him 6-2 6-1 using my TV remote as a racquet.