Mr Octobers 2023 picks thread

**Maizey** · 09-01-23, 08:59 PM

Worst tennis beat, that is.

The Duke Cincinnati college football game (2012 I believe) is the all time worst beat IMO. I was on the wrong side of that one and it still hurts to watch it.

**Conqueror** · 09-02-23, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Mr0ctober

Is Mertens real life?! Jesus

Exactly the kind of instances that make us look like idiots.

**Conqueror** · 09-02-23, 12:43 PM

To those who may be interested in this doubles match:

Kudermetova/Samsonova vs. Brady/Stefani

Kindly note that Samsonova will be playing this match after a potential 3-setter vs Keys. Factor that if you're betting on the game. I've no dog in the fight though.

**Conqueror** · 09-02-23, 01:25 PM

Arnaldi is beating Norrie in straight sets. Never saw that coming!

**Mr0ctober** · 09-03-23, 01:22 PM

One play today I think Woz can grind out enough rallied and get a set.

woz +1.5 sets +150 (0.5u)

contemplated a little moneyline but ultimately laid off Just due to the uncertainty of Woz but she’s looked great imo.

**Conqueror** · 09-03-23, 11:09 PM

FYI,

Ostapenko to win in 3 sets was at +1223 at Bookmaker.

**Conqueror** · 09-05-23, 01:04 PM

Challenger, Seville

Cachin losing on purpose!

**Mr0ctober** · 09-12-23, 09:15 PM

Leylah Fernandez +105 (0.6u)

wta san diego

**Mr0ctober** · 10-02-23, 06:51 AM

10/2 tennis
Rybakina -145 (0.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 10-03-23, 05:52 AM

Tuesday tennis
Andreeva -126 (0.5u)

**eurambaba** · 10-12-23, 02:19 AM

**Mr0ctober** · 10-12-23, 06:05 AM

On Korda -110 (0.5u)

**Conqueror** · 11-04-23, 01:07 PM

Where are you?

**Mr0ctober** · 11-14-23, 10:25 AM

Sorry guys took a little hiatus. Crazy work family life this time of year!!

**Mr0ctober** · 11-17-23, 11:23 AM

Alexander zverev-1.5 games -115 (1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 11-17-23, 04:47 PM

Winner!!

**Mr0ctober** · 12-13-23, 10:00 AM

Throw out all factors how is Rus only -185 today vs jacquemot?!!?!

**Mr0ctober** · 01-04-24, 08:58 PM

We will just keep it rolling here for 2024

WTA Auck Bouzkova -110 vs Svitolina (0.5u)

WTA Brisbane Noskova/Andreeva over 19.5 games -115 (0.5u)

good luck let’s have a profitable year!!

**Mr0ctober** · 01-07-24, 09:29 PM

WTA Auck Bouzkova -110 ❌vs Svitolina (0.5u)

WTA Brisbane Noskova/Andreeva over 19.5 games ✅-115 (0.5u)

Svit/Guaff over 20.5 games (-115) (0.5u) From twitter✅

2-1 +0.45u✅

**Mr0ctober** · 01-09-24, 04:39 PM

Tennis record year to date 3-1 +2.35u

Okay so I have had several questions if I will be posting this year again. The answer is yes. For everyone new and those who have followed over the years. Going to be much more diligent this year of record upkeep and capping.

1) best way to get the plays in real time is on my Twitter handle (now called X) @thewesmethod and turn notifications on.. I also started tracking on betstamp but I caution you I’m just using a standard dollar amount so I would disregard the amounts and just understand that the plays are always 0.5u or 1u. Every now and then might play a 1.5u or 2u play but those are few and far between. I also have tracked on action network app. Again the username is thewesmethod for both betstamp and action.

2) always shop around! You need to have multiple outs as price shopping is going to be a big factor on winning compared to losing.

3) be sure to know sportsbook rules. Some require one completed set for action others require match to be completed. As far as what I suggest I really don’t have a preference I usually just play best line available disregarding set or match completion for action. Those retirements are unpredictable and should even out over time.

4) if I’m betting a player at + money then the bet is risk so today Garcia +130 is risking 0.5 to win 0.65u. If a player is - money (the favorite) we are betting to win example: Maroszan +1.5 sets -140 is risking 0.7u to win 0.5u. This seems to be an older school way of betting and maybe im
dating myself but there is a reason for it. If you are curious why dm me or I can explain on here but for now I’m trying to keep this short.

5) IF TAILING AND IF BETTING ON YOUR OWN YOU NEED TO BE PRICE SENSITIVE. If tailing I would not suggest taking anything above 5 cents worse. Example if I post Djoker -105 and you are staring at -110 I would still bet it but if it’s djoker -115 I would pass. The edges I post here are enough to overcome 5 cents difference I believe (although your winnings will be diminished a little which is again why it’s very important to line shop and be price sensitive betting)

6) WE HAVE DONE WELL OVER THE YEARS BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN ITS A LOCK TO WIN THIS YEAR. I believe it’s a strong possibility that we come out positive but there is variance in betting and nothing is for sure as edges are lost overtime and the market is always getting smarter.

7) FINALLY DO NOT BET MONEY YOU DO NOT HAVE! Bet within your means and stay disciplined in bankroll management. If you do not understand proper bankroll management feel free to reach out but again am trying to keep this short and about tennis

1/9/24
Wta

Caroline Garcia +130 (vs osta) (0.5u)

Kainskaya +125 (vs Kasatkina) (0.5u)

Saville +150 (vs kenin) (0.5u)

ATP

Marozsan +1.5 sets (-140) (vs Shelton) (0.5u)

**Conqueror** · 01-09-24, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Mr0ctober

Tennis record year to date 3-1 +2.35u

3) be sure to know sportsbook rules. Some require one completed set for action others require match to be completed. As far as what I suggest I really don’t have a preference I usually just play best line available disregarding set or match completion for action. Those retirements are unpredictable and should even out over time.

E.g., Heritagesports
E.g., Bookmaker

**Mr0ctober** · 01-09-24, 10:08 PM

Good example conq!! Best of luck this year!

1/9 add
Siniakova +110 (0.5u)

added a live here

Siegmund +108 (0.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 01-10-24, 07:27 AM

Wta

Caroline Garcia +130 (vs osta) (0.5u)❌ -0.65u

Kainskaya +125 (vs Kasatkina) (0.5u)❌ -0.5u

Saville +150 (vs kenin) (0.5u)✅ +0.75

Siniakova +110 (0.5u)❌ -0.5u

Siegmund +108 (0.5u)✅ +0.58u

ATP

Marozsan +1.5 sets (-140) (vs Shelton) (0.5u)❌ -0.7u

1/9: 2-4 -1.02❌

Tennis record year to date 5-5 +1.33u✅

**Mr0ctober** · 01-10-24, 08:31 PM

Let’s try for a better night tonight

WTA:
Saville -110 (0.5u) ((vs zhu))
Pavlychenova +1.5 sets -105 (0.5u) ((vs Pegula))

ATP:
Draper +120 (vs Paul) (0.4u)
Nick Jarry -125 (1u)
RC Barena +1.5 sets +125 (0.4u)

Tennis record year to date 5-5 +1.33u✅

**Mr0ctober** · 01-11-24, 03:44 PM

Let’s try for a better night tonight

WTA:
Saville -110 (0.5u) ((vs zhu))✅ +0.5u
Pavlychenova +1.5 sets -105 (0.5u) ((vs Pegula))✅ +0.5u

ATP:
Draper +120 (vs Paul) (0.4u)✅ +0.48u
Nick Jarry -125 (1u)❌ -1.25.u
RC Barena +1.5 sets +125 (0.4u)❌ -0.4u

3-2 -0.17u❌

Tennis record year to date 8-7 +1.16u✅

**Mr0ctober** · 01-11-24, 08:51 PM

1/11

WTA:
saville +1.5 sets -105 (1u)

ATP:
Lehecka +150 (0.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 01-12-24, 06:20 AM

1/11 Tennis recap
WTA:saville +1.5 sets -105 (1u)✅ +1u
ATP:Lehecka +150 (0.5u)✅ +0.75u
Tennis record year to date 10-7 +2.91u✅

**Mr0ctober** · 01-12-24, 06:30 PM

Nothing this evening

**Mr0ctober** · 01-12-24, 08:35 PM

I lied

atp:
draper -155 (0.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 01-13-24, 09:35 PM

Tennis record year to date 10-8 +2.135u✅

Aussy
WTA

Parks +117 (0.7u)
wozniacki -145 (0.5u)
Townsend +1.5 sets (-135) (0.7u)

ATP:
Garin +220 (0.5u)
Cilic +120 (0.5u)

futures
iga to win Q1 (-135) (3u)
iga to win +250 (1u)

**Maizey** · 01-13-24, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by Mr0ctober

iga to win Q1 (-135) (3u)

Gift draw in her quarter for sure, but I don't see anything close to odds that low. Best I see at my six outs is -225. Are you sure that's the right line?

**Conqueror** · 01-13-24, 11:44 PM

Cilic ML (live) is now @ +486

**Maizey** · 01-14-24, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by Maizey

Gift draw in her quarter for sure, but I don't see anything close to odds that low. Best I see at my six outs is -225. Are you sure that's the right line?

Looks like it's dropped everywhere and is now very close to what you posted. Very strange to see that kind of up and down movement on a quarter winner.

3 units is a huge play for you, so you must really like it. I honestly can't see anybody beating her other than Ostanpenko, and that's a stretch. I think I'll tag along.

**Mr0ctober** · 01-14-24, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by Maizey

Looks like it's dropped everywhere and is now very close to what you posted. Very strange to see that kind of up and down movement on a quarter winner.

3 units is a huge play for you, so you must really like it. I honestly can't see anybody beating her other than Ostanpenko, and that's a stretch. I think I'll tag along.

Yes I’m very confused as well bc a lot of the outs were -225/-250 ish. Then a couple had -135 highly confused to see that kind of differential. I had to play her at that the way I beleive in her and the way she has looked here lately. Even took a small flyer on her to win without dropping a set 17/1 haha. Good luck. It is a very big play for me.

**Mr0ctober** · 01-14-24, 11:41 PM

Add saville -130 (1u)