Mr Octobers 2023 picks thread

[Mr0ctober]

Tennis record year to date 10-8 +2.135u✅

Aussy
WTA

Parks +117 (0.7u)✅ +0.819u
wozniacki -145 (0.5u) ✅
Townsend +1.5 sets (-135) (0.7u)❌ -0.945u
saville -130 (1u)❌ -1.3u

ATP:
Garin +220 (0.5u)❌ -0.5
Cilic +120 (0.5u)❌ -0.5

Pending futures
iga to win Q1 (-135) (3u)
iga to win +250 (1u)

updated tennis record: 12-12 +0.209u✅

[Mr0ctober]

Tennis Aussy from Twitter
ATP:
Fucsovics +2.5 sets -135 (0.5u)
Cazaux +125 (0.5u)
WTA:
Minnen +200 (0.5u)
Gadecki +178 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Aussy
Wta
Andreeva -102 (1u)
Korneeva +280 (0.6u)
Pavluuchenova -124 (1u)
Andreeva/jabeur over 21.5 (1u)
ATP:
Cobelli/kotov over 38.5 (1u)
Hugo Gaston +2.5 sets (-120) (0.5u)
Etcheverry +140 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Aussy
Tomljan +1.5 sets +115 (1u)
Yastremska -135 (1u)
Yfan Wang +5.5 (-125) (1u)
Dodin +140 (1u)

ATP
Kokkinakas +2.5 sets (-120) (1u)
Tommy Paul -107 (1u)

[Maizey]

Yes I’m very confused as well bc a lot of the outs were -225/-250 ish. Then a couple had -135 highly confused to see that kind of differential. I had to play her at that the way I beleive in her and the way she has looked here lately. Even took a small flyer on her to win without dropping a set 17/1 haha. Good luck. It is a very big play for me.

Sheesh, that was a struggle. Hopefully the upcoming more conventional baseliners will make things easier.

[Mr0ctober]

Sheesh, that was a struggle. Hopefully the upcoming more conventional baseliners will make things easier.

It wasn’t easy her draw was tough which I’m guessing why we saw the tick down in price. Incredible win by IGA in my opinion Collins had everything going for a bit. Really tough and impressive win from Iga

[Mr0ctober]

Tennis Aussy from Twitter
ATP:
Fucsovics +2.5 sets -135 (0.5u)✅
Cazaux +125 (0.5u) ✅ +0.625

WTA:
Minnen +200 (0.5u)❌
Gadecki +178 (0.5u)❌

2-2 +0.125

Aussy
Wta
Andreeva -102 (1u)✅
Korneeva +280 (0.6u)❌
Pavluuchenova -124 (1u)❌ -1.24
Andreeva/jabeur over 21.5 (1u)❌ -1.1
ATP:
Cobelli/kotov over 38.5 (1u)✅
Hugo Gaston +2.5 sets (-120) (0.5u)❌ -0.6u
Etcheverry +140 (0.5u)✅ +0.7u

3-4 -0.84u


Tomljan +1.5 sets +115 (1u)✅ +1.15u
Yastremska -135 (1u) ✅ +1u
Yfan Wang +5.5 (-125) (1u) ✅ +1u
Dodin +140 (1u)✅ +1.4u

ATP
Kokkinakas +2.5 sets (-120) (1u)✅ +1u
Tommy Paul -107 (1u)✅ +1u

6-0 +6.55u✅

11-6 last 3 days +5.835u✅

updated tennis record: 23-18 +6.044u✅

[Maizey]

It wasn’t easy her draw was tough which I’m guessing why we saw the tick down in price. Incredible win by IGA in my opinion Collins had everything going for a bit. Really tough and impressive win from Iga

That's the glass half full view. I have the glass half empty view -- her susceptibility on fast courts is evident. I like your view better. I do agree that it was a big emotional and gutty win. I've seen that translate into future success in the past for other players. Those first two match-ups weren't the best for her. Kenin takes the ball early and Collins hits the ball hard & flat. She's much more comfortable against the more conventional baseliners. The next two matches will be just that, so hopefully she shows her superiority.

[Mr0ctober]

ATP Machac +150 (0.8u)
WTAZakharova +180 (0.5u)
Good luck all!

[Mr0ctober]

That's the glass half full view. I have the glass half empty view -- her susceptibility on fast courts is evident. I like your view better. I do agree that it was a big emotional and gutty win. I've seen that translate into future success in the past for other players. Those first two match-ups weren't the best for her. Kenin takes the ball early and Collins hits the ball hard & flat. She's much more comfortable against the more conventional baseliners. The next two matches will be just that, so hopefully she shows her superiority.

I really tend to agree with you in all that analysis. Players like Collins with that kind of power does pose a problems for iga she found a way to comeback partially bc Collins has trouble closing matches. But im
hoping with the incredible comeback and the exit of Rybakina things will
now break for iga going forward. Noskova is no gimmie either. But at the end of the day I’m still in the tank for iga to win this tournament.

best of luck this evening and going forward. Always appreciate your takes on these things!!

[Maizey]

I really tend to agree with you in all that analysis. Players like Collins with that kind of power does pose a problems for iga she found a way to comeback partially bc Collins has trouble closing matches. But im
hoping with the incredible comeback and the exit of Rybakina things will
now break for iga going forward. Noskova is no gimmie either. But at the end of the day I’m still in the tank for iga to win this tournament.

best of luck this evening and going forward. Always appreciate your takes on these things!!

I hope you’re right. I really like Noskova as an up and coming player, but this should be a very favorable matchup for Iga. Iga was a 7 game favorite over both Kenin and Collins, both of which I thought were excessive for the above mentioned reasons. She’s a 6.5 game favorite over Noskova. I think that’s about right. After the really close call in the last match, I’m hoping she puts this one to bed early.

I saw Rybakina go down in the record setting tiebreaker. I wasn’t sure where she was in the draw at the time. Now I see she was in Iga’s half, so you’re right about that opening things up for her. It’s no secret that the big severs and big hitters are her kryptonite on hard courts. Only Sabby lurks, but that’s miles away at this point. I only played Iga for the quarter, but if she gets through that I’ll definitely root for her (and you) to win it all.

[Mr0ctober]

Yep agree I think she will get Noskova tonight with much more ease as well but the potential for Noskova is very promising so we definitely agree there. Let’s get through tonight a reevaluate!!

sorry so late and yes I know yastremska already won. If you need a screen shot for proof I will gladly send it to you.

aussy
Wta
yastremska +170 (1u)
Paolini -145 (1u)


wta/atp parlay

iga 2-0 sets/cazaux +2.5 sets (vs greik)/ sinner ml (vs khach) -122 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Good night betting but iga going down crushes our dreams! Ugh!!!!

[Maizey]

Wow. I didn’t see that coming. Credit to Noskova.

[Mr0ctober]

Australian Open 1/20
Wta:
Timofeeva +170 (0.5u)
Gauff/fech under 17.5 games (-108) (1u)
ATP:
Kachaov +2.5 sets +100 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Australian open
ATP:
Cazaux +230 (0.7u)

WTA:
Kalinskya -145 (1u)
Noskova +155 (0.7u)

[Mr0ctober]

Machac +150 (0.8u)❌ -0.8u
WTAZakharova +180 (0.5u)❌ -0.5u


Wta
yastremska +170 (1u)✅ +1.7u
Paolini -145 (1u)✅ +1u




wta/atp parlay


iga 2-0 sets/cazaux +2.5 sets (vs greik)/ sinner ml (vs khach) -122 (1u)❌ -1.22u


Wta:
Timofeeva +170 (0.5u)❌
Gauff/fech under 17.5 games (-108) (1u)✅
ATP:
Kachaov +2.5 sets +100 (0.5u)❌


Australian open
ATP:
Cazaux +230 (0.7u)❌ -0.7u


WTA:
Kalinskya -145 (1u)✅ +1u


Noskova +155 (0.7u) pushh

4-6 stretch +0.48u✅

updated tennis record: 27-24 +6.524u✅

[Mr0ctober]

Didn’t have anything yesterday/this morning.

[Mr0ctober]

Aussy

Yastremska +150 (0.5u)

Kalinskaya +145 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

Aussy

Yastremska +150 (0.5u)✅

Kalinskaya +145 (0.5u)❌

1-1 +0.25u

updated tennis record: 28-25 +6.774u✅

[Mr0ctober]

Aussy:

Coco +175 (0.75u)
yastremska +180 (0.75u)

I do not understand these prices personally both dogs are over inflated imo.

[Jeff_Black]

Kudos to people who can genuinely watch the women's games without pulling their hair out if they have money on them. Let alone without having money on it.

Take this Sabalenka and Gauff one for example which is a SF and has two top five players. Gauff hasn't been able to serve to save her life today (I understand she had a shoulder injury later last year), Sabalenka atrocious on the net game, poor second serving. Even that last game where Gauff was up 30-0 and three pretty bad serves got Sabalenka into it. And then the game before where Sabalenka should have held but didn't. I can understand why people want to get on dogs for a lot of these games, it's too unpredictable and no lead is safe.

[Mr0ctober]

Oh trust me at times I couldn’t agree more Jeff. Some of these losses/swings can be extremely excruciating!

updated tennis record: 28-27 +5.274u✅

Coco +175 (0.75u)❌
yastremska +180 (0.75u)❌


ATP Australia
Djoker -190 (0.5u)
Zverev/medvedev over 40.5 (1u)

[Jeff_Black]

Sabalenka must have been laughing watching those two in the other game play thinking one of them will be her next opponent. Looked like they’ve sharpen up a bit and really don’t want anymore liability on Sabalenka but considering her near collapse against Gauff can’t see the value in that final myself.

[Conqueror]

Dawn of a new era!
The Italian mafia is taking over men's tennis

[Mr0ctober]

Dawn of a new era!
The Italian mafia is taking over men's tennis

yessir boat raced. I thought sinner had a decent chance but went with my numbers as I had djoker in the -240 range. Djoker was lost for most of the match. Is this the first main sign of Passing of the torch?

[Mr0ctober]

1/30
Kerber -130 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

2/1
ATP
Schevchenko -110 (1u)
Cazaux -120 (1u)
Wta
ZHU -115 (1u)

[Vene1616]

With you on Cazaux. Two questions:

- do you like Yastremska today/to win tournament/to be a solid horse to back all of 2024?
- do you think Sinner will get to SF or better in every Slam this season?

[Mr0ctober]

Sorry I’m late with the response. Yastremska is probably best to look at when she’s priced as a dog going forward. I wouldn’t consider her a horse to ride all thru 2024. She has had a really nice start to the 2024 season but can she keep it up? Im not sure on that. As far as backing people in a smaller tournament after a big run in a major. Those are tough matches to handicap just for the mere fact that you don’t know how much juice or fight they will have. Like yastremska today after a major run in the Aussy gotta question how much juice or fight she has in the tank.

as for sinner yes he’s a going to be a big time player for many years to come. Still a young kid and continues to impress the world. And I would have had the same answer if he was to lose that final vs medvedev in straight sets of the Aussy final. Djoker had no answers in the semis which surprised me I’m wondering if that will be the match that somewhat signals the passing of the torch from the djoker, Rafa, fed trio to the sinner, medvedev, Carlitos crowd.

[Mr0ctober]

2/2 tennis
Cobolli +140 (0.6u)
Pavlyuchenkova -115 (0.75u)
Close to a play on Potapova but ultimately laying off

[Jeff_Black]

as for sinner yes he’s a going to be a big time player for many years to come. Still a young kid and continues to impress the world. And I would have had the same answer if he was to lose that final vs medvedev in straight sets of the Aussy final. Djoker had no answers in the semis which surprised me I’m wondering if that will be the match that somewhat signals the passing of the torch from the djoker, Rafa, fed trio to the sinner, medvedev, Carlitos crowd.

Like we saw when Alcaraz was hyped up by the media before and even more so after Federer retired there will be times when he is overvalued and way too short against respected opponents. He lost to Zverev at slams twice now and Medvedev at the US Open after beating him at Wimbledon. Sinner lost to Zverev at the US Open last year and as we saw in the Aus Open he had to dig deep to beat Medvedev. Sinner and Alcaraz have had a couple of good battles at slams too. It’s good these guys are pushing themselves and each other to great heights like the big three did and no doubt we will see plenty more h2h matches in slams between all these guys. That’s not to say that Sinner has peaked, pretty sure we talked about him here in the tennis sub forum long before everyone in the media did. Like years before, even before he won that nextgen tournament.

[Mr0ctober]

Like we saw when Alcaraz was hyped up by the media before and even more so after Federer retired there will be times when he is overvalued and way too short against respected opponents. He lost to Zverev at slams twice now and Medvedev at the US Open after beating him at Wimbledon. Sinner lost to Zverev at the US Open last year and as we saw in the Aus Open he had to dig deep to beat Medvedev. Sinner and Alcaraz have had a couple of good battles at slams too. It’s good these guys are pushing themselves and each other to great heights like the big three did and no doubt we will see plenty more h2h matches in slams between all these guys. That’s not to say that Sinner has peaked, pretty sure we talked about him here in the tennis sub forum long before everyone in the media did. Like years before, even before he won that nextgen tournament.

Yep for sure Jeff. Tend to agree with all the above points! Best of luck going forward guys!

[Mr0ctober]

ATP Australia
Djoker -190 (0.5u)❌ -0.95u
Zverev/medvedev over 40.5 (1u)✅ +1u

1/30
Kerber -130 (1u)❌ -1.3u

ATP
Schevchenko -110 (1u)✅ +1
Cazaux -120 (1u)❌ -1.2
Wta
ZHU -115 (1u)✅ +1

2/2 tennis
Cobolli +140 (0.6u)❌ -0.6
Pavlyuchenkova -115 (0.75u)✅ +0.75

updated tennis record: 32-31 +4.974u✅

futures: 0-2 -5.05u❌ thanks iga ��

[Mr0ctober]

Ostapenko -175 (1u) winner! ✅ +1u

updated tennis record: 33-31 +5.974u✅

futures: 0-2 -5.05u❌