Mr Octobers 2020 Tennis Plays thread

[Mr0ctober]

Just been riding our djok future.

going to jump in this morning:

pliskova +208 (0.4u)
pliskova +3.5 games +104 (0.6u)
Over 22 games -114 (0.4u)

[leovegas]

Just been riding our djok future.

going to jump in this morning:

pliskova +208 (0.4u)
pliskova +3.5 games +104 (0.6u)
Over 22 games -114 (0.4u)

Do you think the Italian has big enough cojones to make this a competitive one? Shapovalov didn't, though he obviously has the tools to trouble Djokovic

[Mr0ctober]

Do you think the Italian has big enough cojones to make this a competitive one? Shapovalov didn't, though he obviously has the tools to trouble Djokovic

sorry missed this man!

[Mr0ctober]

wimbledon:

future: Djoker -160 (to win 2u) Win +2u

6/29:

ATP:
zapata Miralles +168 (risk 0.7u) LOSS -0.7u
De Minaur -160 (to win 1u) Loss -1.6u

WTA:
money line parlay:
jabeaur/kasatkina/Ostapenko/bencic (-139) (to win 1u) Loss -1.39u

6/30 Wimbledon

ML parlay: Jabeur/Swiatek (-166) (1u) Win +1u
Pegula -105 (1u) Loss -1.05u

7/1:

WTA:

Raducanu +4 games -101 (0.8u) WINNEr +0.8u
Raducanu +254 (0.5u) WINNER +1.27u

7/2 Wimbledon:
Scwartzman -130 (1u) Loss -1.3u

7/3
raducanu +161 (0.8u) WINNER +1.288u

going to jump in this morning:

pliskova +208 (0.4u) LOSS -0.4u
pliskova +3.5 games +104 (0.6u) Loss -0.6u
Over 22 games -114 (0.4u) Win +0.4u

6-7 tournament -0.282u overall for Wimbledon

Record 105-92 +23.736u✅

[Mr0ctober]

7/16:

atp:
Lajovic +4 games +101 (0.7u)

[Mr0ctober]

8/9:

WTA:
Linette -142 (betonline) (1u). *that’s to win 1u**

[kostasblues]

Good to see you back from a break. Best of luck 2u during this U.S. stretch

[Mr0ctober]

Thanks! Not a good start Linette got rolled.

[Mr0ctober]

Recap:8/9

WTA:Linette -142 (betonline) (1u). *that’s to win 1u**❌ -1.42u


Tennis Record 105-93 +22.316u✅

[Mr0ctober]

8/10:

had pegula earlier forgot to post got caught up at work.��

have one a few others here today:

WTA:
money line parlay: Andreescu/Rybakina (-141) (1u)

Jill Teichmann +5.5 games (-115) (1u)


ATP:

Tsitsipas/Humbert over 22.5 games (-111) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

recap
WTA:
money line parlay: Andreescu/Rybakina (-141) (1u)❌ -1.41u

Jill Teichmann +5.5 games (-115) (1u)❌ -1.15u


ATP:

Tsitsipas/Humbert over 22.5 games (-111) (1) ��✅ +1u



Tennis Record 106-95 +20.756u✅

brutal beat on teichmann. Just one of those days. Back at it tomorrow.

[Mr0ctober]

8/11
Pegula +103 (1u)

[kostasblues]

Let's go!

[Mr0ctober]

8/12:

going back to the well here on Pegula -137 (1u). DRC has been outstanding of late but I still have Pegula more of a favorite here.

[Mr0ctober]

Pegula✅
pegula✅

Tennis Record 108-95 +22.786u✅


today we have decided to play Pegula +100 (1u) good luck!!

[Conqueror]

Pegula✅
pegula✅

Tennis Record 108-95 +22.786u✅


today we have decided to play Pegula +100 (1u) good luck!!

That was a good pick, technically.
The problem is (now was) Pegula came from behind in her previous 3 matches. You're not likely to do that 4 times in a row against 4 good players. Coming from behind after losing the first set takes a certain level of emotional and energy expenditure which makes it hard to repeat that kind of a feat several games in a row.

Mr. October, you bring a lot to this forum. I wish you the best in your next play!

[Mr0ctober]

That was a good pick, technically.
The problem is (now was) Pegula came from behind in her previous 3 matches. You're not likely to do that 4 times in a row against 4 good players. Coming from behind after losing the first set takes a certain level of emotional and energy expenditure which makes it hard to repeat that kind of a feat several games in a row.

Mr. October, you bring a lot to this forum. I wish you the best in your next play!

Thanks man! I actually had a future on Pegula and was hoping to get to the final. You are right just took too much out of the tank! Best of luck man! Tennis heating up now after a slow period!

[Mr0ctober]

What am I missing here? I have Rose Collins a much bigger favorite against Rodgers here tonight. I have DRC somewhere closer to -220ish... seeing a -168 at BOL and a -155 with a local (which I think is way off). These two just played and ill admit I did not see the match. But statistically it doesn’t look all that close. Collins is the superior talent and looks to have won rather easily despite 9 double faults. Collins been on a run of 3 setters but has had a few days now. I’m not saying by any means Rodgers isn’t a solid player but lately on the hard court it hasn’t been good. Think we are taking her ranking too much into consideration here and getting some value on DRC tonight.

Danielle Rose Collins -168 (to win 1.2u). Line shop here bc seeing -155,-168, -180+. If your local offers tennis they might use same software as mine I would be sure to check there. I’ll calculate the BOL price bc it’s more widely available. Still I would play this up to -190 still. Or if we get an early lead from Rodgers might get a value live on DRC. I’ll actually be looking to add another half unit if I can get anywhere near a coin flip price of -110 or better. Feel free if you have an angle on why not to play DRC I’d be interested to hear a counter argument. Best of luck

[Igor_1965]

Collins had played more tennis than anyone on tour last 1.5 months

[Mr0ctober]

8/18:

Badosa +4.5 games (1u)
krecijikova/muguruza parlay -153 (1u)
pegula -117 (1u)
Swiatek -107 (1u)
brady -156 (1u)
Kvitova -141 (1u)
teichmann -155 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Pegula +100 (1u)❌ -1u

Danielle Rose Collins -168 (to win 1.2u)❌ -2.01u
Badosa +4.5 games (1u)✅
krecijikova/muguruza parlay -153 (1u)✅
pegula -117 (1u)W/O
Swiatek -107 (1u)❌
brady -156 (1u) Push lucky played at BM
Kvitova -141 (1u)✅
teichmann -155 (1u)✅

Tennis Record 112-98 +22.70u✅

[Mr0ctober]

8/24

WTA:
Abanda +4 games (-115) (0.5u)
Sasnovich +112 (0.6u)

ATP:
Ruusuvuori -115 (0.6u)

Cross WTA/ATP Parlay;
Kasatkina/Fucsovics/Thompson (+100) (0.6u)


Tread lightly these are not high dollar events. so motivation factor always in question. A lot more factors and variables to try to account for therefore usually resulting in more randomness. Especially with the US Open on deck. players could be more focused on fine tuning a certain part of their game rather than winning the match. plus they may not have the motivation to try to fight back when they could rest up for the open rather than tax their body going into what looks to be a very hot US Open.

[Igor_1965]

Thompson

did you mean to bet him against Purcell?

8/24

WTA:
Abanda +4 games (-115) (0.5u)
Sasnovich +112 (0.6u)

ATP:
Ruusuvuori -115 (0.6u)

Cross WTA/ATP Parlay;
Kasatkina/Fucsovics/Thompson (+100) (0.6u)


Tread lightly these are not high dollar events. so motivation factor always in question. A lot more factors and variables to try to account for therefore usually resulting in more randomness. Especially with the US Open on deck. players could be more focused on fine tuning a certain part of their game rather than winning the match. plus they may not have the motivation to try to fight back when they could rest up for the open rather than tax their body going into what looks to be a very hot US Open.

[Mr0ctober]

Thompson

did you mean to bet him against Purcell?

Yes its a parlay of Kasatkina&Fucsovics&Thompson (pays even money a little more if you line shop correctly)

do you disagree with this play? I do not know a ton about Purcell but given the history Thompson has handled him both times and also like the fact that Thompson serve looked very solid as he won +80% of his first serves last match.

[Mr0ctober]

WTA:
Abanda +4 games (-115) (0.5u) Loss -0.575
Sasnovich +112 (0.6u)

✅ +0.672

ATP:
Ruusuvuori -115 (0.6u)

✅ +0.6u

Cross WTA/ATP Parlay;
Kasatkina/Fucsovics/Thompson (+100) (0.6u) Loss -0.6u

Tennis Record 114-100 +22.71u✅

[Mr0ctober]

ATP:
Paire +125 (0.4u)
Gasquet +110 (0.5u)
Alcaraz Garfia -102 (0.8u)

WTA:
Peterson +162 (0.4u)
Paolini +150 (0.4u)

[Mr0ctober]

Recap 8/25

ATP:
Paire +125 (0.4u)❌ -0.4u
Gasquet +110 (0.5u) ✅+0.55u
Alcaraz Garfia -102 (0.8u)✅ +0.8u

WTA:
Peterson +162 (0.4u)✅ +0.648u
Paolini +150 (0.4u) ❌ -0.4u

3-2 yesterday +1.198u✅

Tennis Record 117-102 +23.908u✅

[Conqueror]

MrOctober,

You're probably the only person in the entire world who has a winning record in tennis right now.

Keep it up!

[Mr0ctober]

MrOctober,

You're probably the only person in the entire world who has a winning record in tennis right now.

Keep it up!

Thanks hope to close with a good open. I sat out today just didn’t see much.

[Conqueror]

Thanks hope to close with a good open. I sat out today just didn’t see much.

The US Open definitely holds a lot of promise except that the weather then could lead to a few retirements here and there.

[Maizey]

MrOctober,

You're probably the only person in the entire world who has a winning record in tennis right now.

Keep it up!

No offense to Mr. O, but his thread includes last year, which wasn’t nearly as tough as this year, at least not for most. He’s down for the year, although just a bit, which is actually quite good.

Jeff Black is the only winner that I’ve seen this year.

[Mr0ctober]

US OPEN:

ATP:
MLP: Zapata Miralles/Auger Aliassime (-140) (1u)
MLP: Isner/Dimitrov (-135) (1u)
MLP: Popyrin/Ruusuvuori -140 (1u)
Monteiro +270 (0.7u)

WTA:
Keys -105 (1u)
Juvan -119 (1u)
Linette +4.5 games (-103) (0.7u)
Linette +280 (0.3u)
MLP: Vondrousova/Krejcikova/Osaka (-152) (1u)
Pironkova +5.5 Games (-116) (1.5u)
Pironkova +305 (0.5u)

[Mr0ctober]

im adding more on Pironkova as i now see a +6.5 (-130) out there on games. i do not get this at all.

adding

Pironkova +6.5 games (-130) (1u)

Maybe I am not accounting for something but this seems off. Pironkova hasnt played in months i understand that but this is more about backing a competitive player against a player in Kasatkina that doesn't scare me much. Look shes a fine player but shes being priced like Ash Barty. come on now. if it loses so be it then take my money i guess but i feel this line is very far off personally.

[Mr0ctober]

US open 8/31:

WTA:
S Tormo +130 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

US OPEN:

ATP:
MLP: Zapata Miralles/Auger Aliassime (-140) (1u)✅
MLP: Isner/Dimitrov (-135) (1u)❌ -1.35u
MLP: Popyrin/Ruusuvuori -140 (1u)✅
Monteiro +270 (0.7u)❌ -0.7u

WTA:
Keys -105 (1u)❌ -1.05
Juvan -119 (1u)✅ +1u
Linette +4.5 games (-103) (0.7u)✅ +0.7u
Linette +280 (0.3u)❌ -0.3u
MLP: Vondrousova/Krejcikova/Osaka (-152) (1u)✅ +1
Pironkova +5.5 Games (-116) (1.5u)❌ -1.74u
Pironkova +305 (0.5u)❌ -0.5u
Pironkova +6.5 games (-130) (1u)❌ -1.3u

WTA:
S Tormo +130 (1u)✅ +1.3u

Tennis Record 123-108 +22.968✅

pushing money around here the first few days.