baba booey's tennis

[bababooey13]

profit: +17.153 units
roi: 18.44%
stake: 93 units
record: 22 - 32

[bababooey13]

vesely @2.00 5u
tursunov +1.5 sets @2.00 3u
tursunov @3.83 1u
istomin/seppi over 22 @1.877 1u

[bababooey13]

prob should keep vesely a unit or 2 lower, but i have a gut feeling here. both him and melzer look great this week, but melzer has played a lot since his return from injury. i anticipate most of the money on melzer. already im seeing poy threads on melzer. trap city.

gulbis has been weird the past couple weeks. impressive, then unimpressive. same inconsistent gulbis bullshit. how does he lose a set to robert? not really understanding this line considering the h2h and tursunov seems to have snapped back into form recently.

istomin/seppi has gone to a million sets total in all of their matchups. have to take the over here. keeping it small cuz it's too obvious.

[fitguy67]

bol

[paulnikolo]

good call on tursunov

[bababooey13]

good call on tursunov

so close. nice to make money off it at least.

[bababooey13]

profit: +23.153 units
roi: 22.45%
stake: 103 units
record: 24 - 34

[bababooey13]

berlocq @1.84 0.5u

[fitguy67]

and belated congrats/thanks on hitting the max-unit play on Vesely

also, want to say that I like the way you structure your plays on a dog u expect to play surprisingly well...a big whack on the lo-payout hi-likelihood +1.5set play...and a small splash on the hi-payout/lower likelihood ML...like on Tursunov today (who came SO close to upseting Gulbis)

a much lower-variance way to score on hitting the dogs...when they stretch the fav to 3 sets and just fall short (as Tursunov today)...we still end up with a nice consolation prize...better than "all or nothing" on the ML...you're absolutely right, they play very well...but not quite well enough to win...so zilcho to show for it...no thanks, i like the two-tier +1.5s/ml way to go so we end up thanking Mr. Tursunov for playing well and bringing us a nice payout, rather than cursing his mother cuz he didn't make us rich

[bababooey13]

and belated congrats/thanks on hitting the max-unit play on Vesely

also, want to say that I like the way you structure your plays on a dog u expect to play surprisingly well...a big whack on the lo-payout hi-likelihood +1.5set play...and a small splash on the hi-payout/lower likelihood ML...like on Tursunov today (who came SO close to upseting Gulbis)

a much lower-variance way to score on hitting the dogs...when they stretch the fav to 3 sets and just fall short (as Tursunov today)...we still end up with a nice consolation prize...better than "all or nothing" on the ML...you're absolutely right, they play very well...but not quite well enough to win...so zilcho to show for it...no thanks, i like the two-tier +1.5s/ml way to go so we end up thanking Mr. Tursunov for playing well and bringing us a nice payout, rather than cursing his mother cuz he didn't make us rich

thanks buddy. yup thats the system ive keyed in on after getting killed in chokey 3rd sets over & over & over. I also prefer it to +game spreads depending on the odds. Klizan +3 against Gulbis couple days ago was a perfect example of getting fukked on a spread backing a dog who takes it to 3 sets.

[bababooey13]

karlovic @3.14 2u
karlovic 1st set @2.59 1u

vesely's on fire , but from the small sample size i see, he isn't great with big servers. while vesely looked good against melzer, jurgen would have lost to carla suarez-navarro with that pathetic, error-riddled performance.

[bababooey13]

profit: +28.523 units
roi: +26.78%
stake: 106.5 units
record: 26 - 35

[bababooey13]

delbonis +1.5 sets @1.84 4u
ivo/kohl under 24 @2.01 4u
delbonis +3.5 @2.02 1u
bourgue @4.19 1u

[bababooey13]

ill be shocked if the delbo +1.5 set line doesn't move against me but im passing out.

[fitguy67]

bbb, when u have time, could you jot down some of your reasoning that led you to take the very bold Kohly/Ivo, u24 (bold because it's directly counter to what these two guys' have ever produced h2h...AND bold because you hit it hard, 4 out of a max 5 units)...

what we just saw, you obviously saw coming...what hints gave you the inkling...and then the confidence to go quite heavy on it?

good hit...i'm trying to also score a "take away lesson" from it...

[kenz]

bbb, when u have time, could you jot down some of your reasoning that led you to take the very bold Kohly/Ivo, u24 (bold because these it's counter to what these two guys' have produced have ever produced h2h...AND bold because you hit it hard, 4 out of a max 5 units)...

what we just saw, you obviously saw coming...what hints gave you the inkling...and then the confidence to go quite heavy on it?

good hit...i'm trying to also score a "take away lesson" from it...

Not addressed to me but Kohli winning more than 40% of return points this week was my main incentive. Vesely wasted 9 break points yesterday and lost 2 tiebreaks where he had set points on his serve. Kohli is a lot more talented is one -handed BH so he is tough to read in rallies. 75%/or 3/4 of Kohl titles are on German land, but he is prone to choking. I had him as the champ based on his return points performance and walked from there. My thnking was a tight set and a easy set for Kohli as he is mentally weak at times. It was nice to see he did not lose that tight set.

If this was not on clay, I would probably take over as Kohli is good on clay.

[bababooey13]

bbb, when u have time, could you jot down some of your reasoning that led you to take the very bold Kohly/Ivo, u24 (bold because it's directly counter to what these two guys' have ever produced h2h...AND bold because you hit it hard, 4 out of a max 5 units)...

what we just saw, you obviously saw coming...what hints gave you the inkling...and then the confidence to go quite heavy on it?

good hit...i'm trying to also score a "take away lesson" from it...

first hints of an inkling came from the trappy odds at pinnacle. confidence came from some of the capping kenz explains, but that stuff is really dependent on match ups and hard to take any lesson from it going forward.

you can tell by my bets fitguy,i always try to play against the public plays. works for me in every sport. some people on sbr will tell you books always just try to get even action on both sides of a bet. bullshit. some friends call me a conspiracy theorist but i just have too much respect for the linesmakers. whenever i see a 'gift', i look for a reason to bet the other side.

reading all the tipsters sites last night seemed like everyone was on ivo at juicy odds or the OVER. had to knew ivo would be a loser with everyone on him @4.21ish odds & i rarely feel like backing a favorite in straight sets. h2h and recent form suggested the o/u should have been at 24, maybe 24.5 or higher, but pinnacle hangs a 23.5 at even odds?? we got ourselves a ''gift''...even better, we got ourselves a dusseldorf(which has had shady results all week)FINALS ''gift''...time to look for a reason to bet the other side...

doesnt always work out obviously.. was hoping the free gulbis money was going to end. delbo up a mini break twice in the TB and chokes. piece of shit.

[bababooey13]

profit: +26.563 units
roi: +22.8%
stake: 116.5 units
record: 27 - 38

[fitguy67]

thanks, guyz...i'm very glad i asked

[bababooey13]

p.h. herbert +2.5 sets @1.98 2u
goffin @2.61 3u
queerboy/vollandri over 37.5 @2.01 2u
raonic -2.5 sets @1.87 0.5u

[Hardcoar]

I want to add that the line for Larsson vs Kirilenko is a prime example of such a line, IMO. These odds convincingly indicate that Larsson will win or come very close to it. If anyone had asked me to cap this match I would make Larsson at least @3.

Edit: Also Melzer @ 1.8 borderline, but he shouldn't be losing to f*cking Goffin.

[Hardcoar]

I want to add that the line for Larsson vs Kirilenko is a prime example of such a line, IMO. These odds convincingly indicate that Larsson will win or come very close to it. If anyone had asked me to cap this match I would make Larsson at least @3.

Edit: Also Melzer @ 1.8 borderline, but he shouldn't be losing to f*cking Goffin.

See what I mean? There is no way in hell Larsson wins that match, yet the odds are close to a pick-em... Fishy fish is fishy!

[bababooey13]

See what I mean? There is no way in hell Larsson wins that match, yet the odds are close to a pick-em... Fishy fish is fishy!

good eye hardcoar. fishy indeed

[Simon Gruber]

Larsson just smoked her, and what did she close at?

[bababooey13]

Larsson just smoked her, and what did she close at?

around 2.25

[bababooey13]

profit: +22.998 units
roi: +19%
stake: 121 units
record: 28 - 40

*pending goffin @2.61 3u

[Simon Gruber]

Pliskova 2-0 highly recommended

[bababooey13]

Pliskova 2-0 highly recommended

thanks buddy maybe ill throw some lunch money on it before i pass out..but i try to always pass on the beaver tennis.

[bababooey13]

robert +4.5 @2.15 3.5u
rosol @2.14 3.5u
robert @3.45 1u
mathieu @2.62 0.5u

will probably add a play or 2.

[chs13021986]

How is the weather atm in Paris?

[bababooey13]

still have robert bets from yesterday pending. will update record after today.

haider maurer -6 @1.8 4u
tomic @3.84 1u
haider maurer -7 @2.22 1.5u
haider-maurer -2.5 sets @2.22 1u

[Dmoneytx]

still have robert bets from yesterday pending. will update record after today.

haider maurer -6 @1.8 4u
tomic @3.84 1u
haider maurer -7 @2.22 1.5u
haider-maurer -2.5 sets @2.22 1u

I know both players went thru qualies this week, so both playing well on the clay. Maurer had two horrible losses coming into this tment in Challengers to players ranked #230 & #275 range, not good... Tough match to cover 6 or 7 games when he is not playing his best, hope he comes back for you..

[manwiss]

It's easy to speak when match is already being played... Why you coudnt' say that earlier?

[Dmoneytx]

It's easy to speak when match is already being played... Why you coudnt' say that earlier?

Because I didn't bet on that match..

I was merely making a comment "once" I saw this play for the first time..

So????

[fitguy67]

damn, bbb...tough loss on the negative-spread plays...

H.Maurer did his job...just fell that frustratingly wee-bit short...never a good idea to wait till the third set to start playing...

anyhow, house money...back at'em tomoro