ITT I Bet Air

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 11:51 AM

Fognini to defeat Mannarino (1.40) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 12:36 PM

soccer live in-play
Levski Sofia - Cherno More Varna under 1.5 goals (1.90) - 1 unit (0-0 at 36th minute)

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 02:05 PM

Bautista-Agut to defeat Smyczek (1.36) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 04:19 PM

Klizan +4.5 games live (3-6 6-4 1-1) - 2.00 - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 06:01 PM

Chung to defeat Soeda (3.25) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 06:03 PM

DellAcqua to defeat Kar. Pliskova (2.37) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 06:08 PM

Troicki to defeat Zopp (1.36) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-29-14, 06:32 PM

parlay Dimitrov + Wawrinka (1.38) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-30-14, 09:11 AM

Khachanov to defeat Sriram Balaji (1.66) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-30-14, 09:15 AM

Groth/Guccione to defeat Peya/Soares (3.00) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 08-31-14, 04:40 AM

Safarova to defeat Shuai Peng (1.57) - 1 unit

**fitguy67** · 08-31-14, 09:38 AM

hey mar, glad to see u got this baby up & running again...and thanks for the khachanov over balaji pick

i see u've decided to go flat...here's something to try...bet everything TO WIN (not risk...TO WIN) one unit..."flat target" instead of flat risk...

it will make you think about dogs and faves differently forevermore...considering a 1.33? you better like it cuz it'll cost you 3 units for a ticket to win 1unit...got a long shot at 6.00 you're afraid to "waste" a whole unit on? think of it as a dirt-cheap lottery ticket, costing you just 0.2u to win a unit...

just an alternate (and better theoretically as well...kelly betting is nothing more than betting TO WIN your edge, the formula just converts it into the amount you need to risk to accomplish that) way to take away the frustration/"performance anxiety" of assigning bet-size properly...just assume an identical "who really knows?" edge to whatever u deem worthy of a play...and let the odds themselves tell you how much to stake

___________

your play selection is outstanding and flat risking will not properly take advantage of it...doing as you were, intentionally risking more when the odds were shorter (and the chance of success was higher, making it "worth" the bigger risk) and risking less when the odds were longer (& the chance of success lower, making the bet less "worth" the risk) does work (as evidenced by this thread's ongoing clearly-positive ROI)

so if you want to simplify the current process...i suggest you consider "flat targeting" (as opposed to flat risking) as it accomplishes the same objective of risking more when chances of success are greater and vice versa
_________

however you size your bets, please keep posting 'em cuz they're golden

**Marillion** · 08-31-14, 10:52 AM

Thanks... actually I am on a pretty huge downswing but I hope it'll end.
I'll also consider your suggestion, thanks a lot for it.

As for Khachanov - sometimes these low level tournaments offer such youngsters (SrtySree's favourite Ymers, Khachanov, Hyuen Chung) and I kinda saw he was playing in the semi-final but didn't play... so I did at least for the final.

**Marillion** · 08-31-14, 11:58 AM

Simon to defeat Ferrer (3.00) - 1 unit live 2-1 and a break up in the third set

**Marillion** · 08-31-14, 01:07 PM

Larsson +5.5 games against Jankovic (1.83) - 1 unit loss
Cabal/Farah to defeat Fyrstenberg/Matkowski (1.72) - 1 unit loss
V. Williams -4.5 games against Errani (1.90) - 1 unit loss
Chan/Chan to defeat Date-Krumm/Zahlavova-Strycova (1.66) - 1 unit loss
Fognini to defeat Mannarino (1.40) - 1 unit loss
Levski Sofia - Cherno More Varna under 1.5 goals (1.90) - 1 unit (0-0 at 36th minute) win
Bautista-Agut to defeat Smyczek (1.36) - 1 unit win
Klizan +4.5 games live (3-6 6-4 1-1) - 2.00 - 1 unit loss
Chung to defeat Soeda (3.25) - 1 unit win
DellAcqua to defeat Kar. Pliskova (2.37) - 1 unit win
Troicki to defeat Zopp (1.36) - 1 unit win
Khachanov to defeat Sriram Balaji (1.66) - 1 unit win
Groth/Guccione to defeat Peya/Soares (3.00) - 1 unit loss
Simon to defeat Ferrer (3.00) - 1 unit live 2-1 and a break up in the third set win

YTD
+27.17 units

Wins-Losses-Void
383-293-23

**Marillion** · 09-02-14, 06:02 AM

Martin to defeat Serra (1.83) - 1 unit
Dimitrov to defeat Monfils (1.66) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-02-14, 06:05 AM

Lama to defeat King (1.40) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-02-14, 06:09 AM

Niki to defeat Takeuchi (1.61) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-02-14, 06:24 AM

Vinogradova to defeat Bogoliy (1.30) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-02-14, 12:38 PM

Adding 1 unit on Dimitrov 1.72.

**Marillion** · 09-02-14, 03:16 PM

in-play Simon to defeat Cilic (2.37) - 1 unit 7-5 3-4 (0-15 and serving)

**Marillion** · 09-03-14, 03:27 AM

Eysseric to defeat Karatsev (1.72) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-03-14, 03:37 AM

Montanes to defeat Fucsovic (1.53) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-03-14, 02:36 PM

Chen/Peng to defeat DiWu/Zhang (1.50) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-03-14, 04:47 PM

Herbert to defeat Marti (1.57) - 1 unit
Gombos to defeat Martin (1.80) - 1 unit

Gombos - Martin may well go over but no line for that yet...

**Marillion** · 09-04-14, 03:18 AM

Lama to defeat Mina (1.61) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-04-14, 03:29 AM

Buchanan to defeat Luncanu (1.33) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-04-14, 04:14 PM

Bhambri to defeat Vanni (1.53) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-06-14, 03:37 AM

Hanescu to defeat Munos de la Nava (1.50) - 1 uni

**Marillion** · 09-06-14, 03:42 AM

Herbert - Mahut over 22.5 (1.90) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-06-14, 03:58 AM

Stakhovsky to defeat Millot (1.33) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-06-14, 04:01 AM

Sibille to defeat Pantuckova (1.72) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-06-14, 04:03 AM

Linette to defeat Han (1.40) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-06-14, 08:15 AM

Nishikori to defeat Djokovic (7.00) - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 09-06-14, 10:16 AM

Vankova to defeat Mueller (1.75) - 1 unit