ITT I Bet Air

**Marillion** · 06-02-14, 09:16 AM

Michon to defeat Devvarman (1.80) - 3 units (Challenger Prostejov)

**fitguy67** · 06-02-14, 11:43 AM

mar, what is the current ML-price...and your pick taking into acount...that i don't see at all

at my current stage of development as a tennis bettor, i rely on the info here:

Match detail: Michon - Devvarman

http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1199826

Detailed H2H, statistics and match odds.

where none of the basic considerations, including recent performance (weighted by quality of opposition, of course)...seem to point to Michon being favored to win

_______

is it just the fact that he may be riding a "self esteem" wave from getting into the main draw at a GS...or something else?

**Marillion** · 06-02-14, 11:50 AM

Opening odds at 365 were 1.80 Michon - 1.90 Devvarman, some line movement obv. Btw, I think I would still take Michon at 1.72, better form and clay is his favourite surface.

**Marillion** · 06-02-14, 05:36 PM

Speaking of odds, I usually find it pretty unpleasant when I wonder whether to back someone, refrain from doing so and then their line goes down massively. Like Lama versus Gomez tomorrow, for example, he went down from 1.83 to 1.50.

**Marillion** · 06-03-14, 03:53 AM

Garcia-Vidagany to defeat Gasparian (1.57) - 2 units (ITF Women Marseille Qual)

**Marillion** · 06-03-14, 07:08 AM

Smitkova to defefat Foretz Gacon (1.66) - 2 units loss
Anderson - Karlovic over 42.5 (1.80) - 1 unit void
Fognini to defeat Monfils (1.66) - 2 units loss
Kokkinakis to defeat Whittington (1.61) - 4 units win
E. Ymer to defeat Gomez Herrera (1.80) - 2 units win
Hyeon Chung to defeat Min Hyeok Cho (1.53) - 3 units win
Trusendi to defeat Becuzzi 2-0 sets (1.025) - 1 unit win
Fichman to defeat Brengle (1.66) - 2 units (ITF Women Nottingham) win
Eikeri to defeat Soribes-Tormo (1.50) - 2 units (ITF Women La Marsa) loss
Michon to defeat Devvarman (1.80) - 3 units (Challenger Prostejov) win
Garcia-Vidagany to defeat Gasparian (1.57) - 2 units (ITF Women Marseille Qual) win

Wins-Losses-Void
337-249-23

total units risked: 1064

YTD
+39.57 units

ROI
3.72%

**Marillion** · 06-03-14, 07:13 AM

PARLAY: Rola (to defeat Torebko; Challenger Furth) + Gombos (to defeat Konecny; Challenger Prostejov) - 1.46 - 1 unit

**Marillion** · 06-03-14, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

Sorensen to defeat Odesnik (1.83) - 1 unit (Challenger Furth)
Coppejans to defeat Zhang (1.40) - 1 unit (Challenger Furth)

Line for Sorensen went down from 1.83 to 1.53 (which is quite normal given their recent performances and their recent match). Odesnik is a known fixer though (OK at least he was in the centre of a fixing story) and he was now leading 7-5 3-0 only to lose the second set. If this is a fix, I am on the right side lol.

**Marillion** · 06-03-14, 01:16 PM

Sorensen to defeat Odesnik (1.83) - 1 unit (Challenger Furth) win
Coppejans to defeat Zhang (1.40) - 1 unit (Challenger Furth) win
PARLAY: Rola (to defeat Torebko; Challenger Furth) + Gombos (to defeat Konecny; Challenger Prostejov) - 1.46 - 1 unit win

Wins-Losses-Void
340-249-23

total units risked: 1067

YTD
+41.26 units

ROI
3.87%

**Marillion** · 06-03-14, 03:42 PM

Arnaboldi to defeat Alund (1.53) - 2 units (Challenger Mestre)

**Marillion** · 06-04-14, 02:51 AM

Fichman to defeat Dolonc (1.61) - 1 unit (ITF Women Nottingham)

**Marillion** · 06-04-14, 03:04 AM

Ferrer to defeat Nadal (6.00) - 1 unit (ATP French Open)

**Marillion** · 06-05-14, 02:15 AM

Coppejans to defeat Sorensen (1.72) - 1 unit (Challenger Furth)

**Marillion** · 06-05-14, 04:47 AM

Gombos to defeat Reister (2.62) - 2 units (Challenger Prostejov)

I watched Gombos against Haase yesterday. The court seems faster than most clay courts, not many long rallies. Gombos served well, had a nice attacking game. Both he and Reister are in a good form but the German is more of a typical clay court grinder who just returns the ball. I'd make Reister only a small favourite here and I think this line holds value.

**Marillion** · 06-05-14, 04:57 AM

Sorribes Tormo to defeat Knoll (1.57) - 1 unit (ITF Women La Marsa)

The Spanish player has had impressive results in this tournament and her opponent had a long match yesterday.

Karatancheva to defeat Putintseva (2.62) - 1 unit (ITF Women Marseille)

I'd put the line closer here (a bit like in the Gombos match). Karatancheva is a big talent (made it to top 40 at the age of 16) and even she's not that good now, she defeat her opponent on clay several weeks ago.

**Marillion** · 06-05-14, 05:06 AM

Diyaz to defeat Broady (1.57) - 2 units (ITF Women Nottingham)

Diyaz is a better player. Last year, she was 13/3 on grass, so she should definitely be used to the surface. Even if the English player seems to be in a good form, I doubt she has big chances of winning this.

**Marillion** · 06-05-14, 05:10 AM

Results after yesterday:

Arnaboldi to defeat Alund (1.53) - 2 units (Challenger Mestre) win
Ferrer to defeat Nadal (6.00) - 1 unit (ATP French Open) loss

Wins-Losses-Void
341-250-23

total units risked: 1070

YTD
+41.32 units

ROI
3.86%

**Marillion** · 06-05-14, 03:34 PM

Fichman to defeat Dolonc (1.61) - 1 unit (ITF Women Nottingham) win
Coppejans to defeat Sorensen (1.72) - 1 unit (Challenger Furth) loss
Gombos to defeat Reister (2.62) - 2 units (Challenger Prostejov) win
Sorribes Tormo to defeat Knoll (1.57) - 1 unit (ITF Women La Marsa) loss
Karatancheva to defeat Putintseva (2.62) - 1 unit (ITF Women Marseille) win
Diyaz to defeat Broady (1.57) - 2 units (ITF Women Nottingham) win

Wins-Losses-Void
345-252-23

total units risked:1078

YTD
+45.93 units

ROI
4.26%

**Marillion** · 06-06-14, 04:05 AM

Larcher de Brito to defeat Danilidou (1.50) - 2 units (ITF Nottingham Women)

**Marillion** · 06-06-14, 05:19 AM

Fichman to defeat Konta (1.90) - 1 unit (ITF Nottingham Women)

**Marillion** · 06-06-14, 06:22 AM

Damn Fichman got injured and odds went high.

**Marillion** · 06-06-14, 09:09 AM

Porter to defeat Weinhold (1.66) - 1 unit - ITF Women El Paso

**Marillion** · 06-06-14, 09:14 AM

Guccione/Ram to defeat Rice/Thornley (1.83) - 3 units (Challenger Nottingham MD)

**Marillion** · 06-06-14, 12:35 PM

Matosevic to defeat Kutrovsky 2-0 sets (1.61) - 2 units

Dimitar Kutrovsky is a "small" guy who plays a two-handed forehand, he's not a bad player but I absolutely don't see him handling Marinko on the fast surface here. Moreover, he has just had a long match against Harrison (he won after a third set tiebreaker) and he must be tired.

ed: in my opinion, you can also take Matosevic ML at 1.22, there is value here even if the line is very low

**Marillion** · 06-07-14, 01:37 AM

Diyaz to defeat Kr. Pliskova (1.83) - 2 units (ITF Women Nottingham)

**Marillion** · 06-07-14, 03:40 AM

Hyeon Chung to defeat Cheong-Eui Kim (1.36) - 3 units (ITF Korea F4)

**Marillion** · 06-07-14, 03:53 AM

Larcher de Brito to defeat Danilidou (1.50) - 2 units (ITF Nottingham Women) win
Fichman to defeat Konta (1.90) - 1 unit (ITF Nottingham Women) loss
Porter to defeat Weinhold (1.66) - 1 unit - ITF Women El Paso loss
Guccione/Ram to defeat Rice/Thornley (1.83) - 3 units (Challenger Nottingham MD) win

Wins-Losses-Void
347-254-23

total units risked: 1085

YTD
+47.42 units

ROI
4.37%

**Marillion** · 06-07-14, 07:37 AM

Olivetti to defeat Lazov (1.40) - 4 units (ATP Halle Qual)

**Marillion** · 06-07-14, 07:50 AM

Sharapova to defeat Halep (1.66) - 4 units (WTA French Open)

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 12:34 AM

(voleyball) Serbia -1.5 sets against Bulgaria (1.90) - 2 units

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 12:53 AM

Miyamura to defeat Gajdosova (8.00) - 0.5 units (ITF Women Nottingham Qual)

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 01:08 AM

Matosevic to defeat Kutrovsky 2-0 sets (1.61) - 2 units win
Diyaz to defeat Kr. Pliskova (1.83) - 2 units (ITF Women Nottingham) loss
Hyeon Chung to defeat Cheong-Eui Kim (1.36) - 3 units (ITF Korea F4) loss
Olivetti to defeat Lazov (1.40) - 4 units (ATP Halle Qual) win
Sharapova to defeat Halep (1.66) - 4 units (WTA French Open) win

Wins-Losses-Void
350-256-23

total units risked: 1100

YTD
+47.88 units

ROI
4.35%

**Semper Fidelis** · 06-08-14, 01:13 AM

What's good Marillion? Should we take Olivetti again over Pavic? And what are your thoughts on Cecchinato over Cuevas? Figured it might be worth a stab at the hometown hero at such a price. Also was thinking of Hsieh/Peng over the Italian duo for WTA since they have a decent record against them (including winning recently at Rome a few weeks ago). Thanks again for all you contribute to the forum buddy, and good luck on whatever plays you do end up making!

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 01:34 AM

Thanks a lot for the kind words sir.. I honestly don't know about Cechinato as I have never seen him play (btw I now googled a thing or two about this tourney and found out it is in Venice, as Mestre is a name of a part of Venice), I am staying away
ed: actually my guess is that it's maybe worth to back him at these high odds but I am not sure).

As for Olivetti - no, I pounded 4 units yesterday because Lazov is a much weaker player (and he is weaker than Pavic), they opened the line at 1.25 and it went up to 1.40, I don't have any idea why one would want to back Lazov there. I think betting over 22.5 at 1.80 may be a good idea here as I've heard Pavic has a strong serve also (never seen him play, may do some research now.) while Olivetti's serve is monstrous and they are playing on grass.

I agree with you on Hsieh/Peng, it's maybe worth to put a unit or two there.

Good luck to your future bets too!

**Marillion** · 06-08-14, 07:12 AM

I'll now be trying to add an occasional bet or two on other sports (with tennis plays still the vast majority of the plays):

Mexico to defeat Cameroon (2.30) - 1 unit (Soccer World Cup)
Croatia to defeat Cameroon (2.00) - 1 unit (Soccer World Cup)

According to today's L'Equipe, the Cameroonians have refused to fly with the plane that was to take them and the president (or something like that, my French is far from great) because they wanted more money/bonuses - http://www.lequipe.fr/Football/Actua...-partir/471988