sluggy's self accountability thread

matt1216 · 07-18-14, 02:47 AM

You sure? Pops barely got by kuznetsov.... He had to come back from 0-40 twice I believe I don't think he would be that lucky vs tomic

sluggy1616 · 07-18-14, 07:10 AM

7.19.14

mayer -3 @1.90 - 1 unit

sluggy1616 · 07-18-14, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

You sure? Pops barely got by kuznetsov.... He had to come back from 0-40 twice I believe I don't think he would be that lucky vs tomic

Not sure. I still don't think I've hit my stride this year so I keep most bets to a unit or under. If I hit most of my plays today my unit size will most likely increase per bet. Pops is speculative.

sluggy1616 · 07-18-14, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

7.18.14

Popsicle @2.55 - half unit

Pops has been hurt but he was lights out yesterday. Both him and kunets had good matches. Pops won 91% of 1st serves and 66% of 2nd serves. Kutz was 79% and 64%. A good match!!! I don't think Tomic is so much better than Kutz that he can pull a win if Pops plays the same again.

This is also about the time last year that pops really got hot. I expect it again tomorrow.

Only betting a half unit cause when I think the books are messed up its usually me instead.

Ok reassessed this play. If i wasn't going to bet the tobias/zvrev match because the players were new and doing stuff they haven't done before(WINNING) then I shouldn't try to figure out how 2 players coming off injury are going to perform. Hedging out the half unit risk for tomic. Took small loss due to juice. I'll just hope I get lucky with the 2 set to 0 bet

sluggy1616 · 07-18-14, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

7.18.14

rosol/korn over 22.5 @1.86 - qtr unit

rosol @2.80 - qtr unit

Rosol has been playing well for a while.

Korn not so much. Saw both of his matches. Both Elias and Frenchie choked when they were serving for the 1st set and just lost heart after that. I could see the match going 3 sets and either player winning or I see Rosol in 2. If Korn in 2 at least I only lose a half unit.

Sluggy back to his normal losing ways...

sluggy1616 · 07-18-14, 06:04 PM

taking the weekend off

sluggy1616 · 07-23-14, 05:38 PM

I have social proof bias. It affects my picks and my thoughts. I make plays outside my thread with no problem now.

The thread has been a big success because the record has shown that I tend to make a lot of stupid dog bets. i realize this and make a small silly bet each week that helps keep me focused on all my other solid bets I make.

Peace out!!

YTD+16.0

(ps bet 2 units on mayer over ferrer dick so killed it there but not in record)