sluggy's self accountability thread

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  • matt1216
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-27-11
    • 14683

    #281
    You sure? Pops barely got by kuznetsov.... He had to come back from 0-40 twice I believe I don't think he would be that lucky vs tomic
    Comment
    • sluggy1616
      SBR MVP
      • 07-21-13
      • 1317

      #282
      7.19.14

      mayer -3 @1.90 - 1 unit
      Comment
      • sluggy1616
        SBR MVP
        • 07-21-13
        • 1317

        #283
        Originally posted by matt1216
        You sure? Pops barely got by kuznetsov.... He had to come back from 0-40 twice I believe I don't think he would be that lucky vs tomic
        Not sure. I still don't think I've hit my stride this year so I keep most bets to a unit or under. If I hit most of my plays today my unit size will most likely increase per bet. Pops is speculative.
        Comment
        • sluggy1616
          SBR MVP
          • 07-21-13
          • 1317

          #284
          Originally posted by sluggy1616
          7.18.14

          Popsicle @2.55 - half unit

          Pops has been hurt but he was lights out yesterday. Both him and kunets had good matches. Pops won 91% of 1st serves and 66% of 2nd serves. Kutz was 79% and 64%. A good match!!! I don't think Tomic is so much better than Kutz that he can pull a win if Pops plays the same again.

          This is also about the time last year that pops really got hot. I expect it again tomorrow.

          Only betting a half unit cause when I think the books are messed up its usually me instead.

          Ok reassessed this play. If i wasn't going to bet the tobias/zvrev match because the players were new and doing stuff they haven't done before(WINNING) then I shouldn't try to figure out how 2 players coming off injury are going to perform. Hedging out the half unit risk for tomic. Took small loss due to juice. I'll just hope I get lucky with the 2 set to 0 bet
          Comment
          • sluggy1616
            SBR MVP
            • 07-21-13
            • 1317

            #285
            Originally posted by sluggy1616
            7.18.14

            rosol/korn over 22.5 @1.86 - qtr unit

            rosol @2.80 - qtr unit

            Rosol has been playing well for a while.

            Korn not so much. Saw both of his matches. Both Elias and Frenchie choked when they were serving for the 1st set and just lost heart after that. I could see the match going 3 sets and either player winning or I see Rosol in 2. If Korn in 2 at least I only lose a half unit.
            Sluggy back to his normal losing ways...
            Comment
            • sluggy1616
              SBR MVP
              • 07-21-13
              • 1317

              #286


              taking the weekend off
              Comment
              • sluggy1616
                SBR MVP
                • 07-21-13
                • 1317

                #287
                I have social proof bias. It affects my picks and my thoughts. I make plays outside my thread with no problem now.

                The thread has been a big success because the record has shown that I tend to make a lot of stupid dog bets. i realize this and make a small silly bet each week that helps keep me focused on all my other solid bets I make.

                Peace out!!

                YTD+16.0

                (ps bet 2 units on mayer over ferrer dick so killed it there but not in record)
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