EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

[Brian891]

Thanks ep as always. Curious if u had thoughts on robredo too. Not very familiar with lacko. Know robredo prefers clay. Understand if Udont have time. Hope u have another great day man.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wimbledon, Tuesday June 24th

Parlay
Kyrgios + Garcia-Lopez @ -134 *Risking 1.34 units to win 1.00 units

Singles *Dogs risking 0.5 unit/Total to win 0.5 unit
Lacko +155
Herbert +125
Sijsling +285
Zhang +195
De Schepper +6.5 @ -115

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks ep as always. Curious if u had thoughts on robredo too. Not very familiar with lacko. Know robredo prefers clay. Understand if Udont have time. Hope u have another great day man.

I like Lacko. He was decent in the prep tourneys & has been competitive on this surface more often than not. Robredo there is really no gauge since he rarely does the prep tourneys. For the most part, his wins have come against real schleps at Wimbledon.

[Brian891]

Thanks. I went back and read ur write ups. Great stuff.

[EaglesPhan36]

Arg. Not sure why I didn't double up and use Giraldo in the regular parlay for today. Hindsight obviously GGL = yikes for losing to Lajovic.

[Rose']

EP can you tell me why I shouldn't put a couple units on Sijsling? With the public picking Phillip.... Thanks and telling your open parlay for a bill gl

[EaglesPhan36]

I like flat betting the same amount personally from match to match. Kohlschreiber is good on this surface, so me personally it would just be a standard sized wager.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well was a nice try by GGL on the comeback, but he fumes out in the 5th. Parlay loses.

[NguyenImproved]

Larger write-up for Wimbledon since I actually have the time. Part One below. Part Deux coming a little later for anyone who gives a shit.

Wimbledon Overview
Over the past few years, Wimbledon has been home to some of the bigger Grand Slam upsets in recent times. 2013 saw the first ever 1st round Grand Slam exit for Rafael Nadal at the hands of Belgian Steve Darcis. We also witnessed Roger Federer dropping out in the 2nd round at the hands of Sergiy Stakhovsky. In 2012, Rafael Nadal suffered another shock exit n the 2nd round to Lukas Rosol. The same year, 6th seeded Tomas Berdych fell in his opener to unseeded Ernests Gulbis. Upsets and retirements have been a huge part of the early rounds among the top 12 seeds.

Guys with big serves and big ground strokes will have chances to pull off these stunning upsets we have seen. So weigh the match-ups, know who has the big game to pull these off and which seeds might be must vulnerable. Take your shots on the big dogs and you could very well make some nice cash in the early rounds when the surface is at its quickest, still fresh and slick and not chewed up from several matches. Most of the players agree that as the tournament goes on, the surface becomes slower with higher bounces where the big boppers won't necessarily be in line for those upsets that could happen in the 1st couple rounds. Here's the breakdown of how the seeds have struggled early.

In 2013, five of the top 12 seeds were done by Round Two and two more would join them by Round Three. In 2012, three of the top 12 seeds were out in Rounds One & Two with two more gone by Round Three. In 2011, some normalcy was prevalent with no upsets of top 12 seeds in the 1st two rounds. However, four top 12 seeds were ousted in the third round. Overall, the 1st round over the past three years has seen 19 seeds knocked out in the 1st round: 2011 (5), 2012 (7), 2013 (7)

Seed Vulnerability Report
Let's take a look at the seeds at this year's tournament and who might be most vulnerable due to poor form, poor surface play or health questions. These are not necessarily guys who will lose in round one or two - but some look destined to be gone by the 3rd round if they're not careful.

#2 Rafael Nadal
It's hard to think about rating one of the all-time greats a good fade, but the track record speaks for itself. Nadal has been out in the 1st or 2nd round here in two straight tournaments and has lost four of his last six matches on grass.

#5 Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka has shown a little bit on grass in each of the last two seasons in the short grass court season prior to Wimbledon. He made the Queens Club semis this year, but was beaten soundly by Dimitrov in that semifinal match. Last year, he made the Final of the Dutch tournament where lost in straights to Mahut. The problem? Once he gets to Wimbledon, he loses. First round losses three of the last four years and gone in the 2nd round in four straight. \

#7 David Ferrer
Normally, I'd pass right over Ferrer even though this surface is not his best - he's proven very solid at Wimbledon. He's made the quarters the last two years and at least the 4th round the two years prior to that. This year though he is a big injury concern. He's had the stomach flu for around 10 days that kept him from the Dutch prep tournament last week. He has been cleared to play, but we need to see his fitness level. Luckily, his first few rounds are fairly easy.

#8 Milos Raonic
You figure his big game would translate well to the quick conditions, but he's lost five of six on grass and has not progressed further than the 2nd round in three tries here. Sock or Herbert in the 2nd round could be a challenge, but he really has a good draw. I don't see how you can trust him 100% until he proves better on this surface.

#12 Ernests Gulbis
He'll probably be a hot pick for a darkhorse by many, but his track record on grass is mediocre and that is being kind. He's 8-14 all-time on the surface. At Wimbledon, he had his best showing last year by making the third round. Prior to that, it was the 2nd round or earlier in five straight years. I don't expect him to go much further than that.

#14 Jo-Wilifried Tsonga
There was a time when Tsonga was a real threat here. Those days seem long ago as Tsonga is enduring a very average 2014. Watch out in the opener as he faces Jurgen Melzer who has been played inspired since returning from injury. Tsonga did whip him in straights at the French Open, but Melzer has looked better on Grass with a semifinal showing at the Dutch tournament. Tsonga looked careless in losing his 2nd match at Queens Club. After two straight semifinal showings, he was forced to retire in the 2nd round to Gulbis last year. He's got a tough draw overall.

#15 Jerzy Janowicz
It's pretty much been a full year since Janowicz has seen any worthwhile results. Making the semis last year was a career highlight and it's been all downhill since. The Pole lost his only Grass Court prep match in Halle to Herbert. In 2014, he's failed to win three matches in a row in any tournament, so his prognosis here could be for a quick exit. Round one with Devvarman should be a win, but nothing is easy these days and the Flying Indian took him five sets at the Australian Open in 2013. An interesting watch this week because his ranking plummets if his poor results continue.

#16 Fabio Fognini
A fish out of water on this surface. The Italian lost in Round One to Jurgen Melzer in 2013 and has failed to make it past the 2nd round in four of his five tries at the All-England Club. He's another one granted a cake draw early with Alex Kuznetsov to start and a 2nd round meeting with Puetz or Gabashvili.

#21 Alexandr Dolgopolov
Dolgopolov is always a tough one to predict, but he comes in with some injury question as he has suffered from a leg issue since the French Open. It was a thigh strain that reportedly knocked him out of Queens Club and then he withdrew from Eastbourne this week with the same problem. Rest may have helped, but regardless he is just 4-4 at Wimbledon. He faces the biggest server on-tour in Groth to open and tricky guys after that if he survives

#22 Phillipp Kohlschreiber
Normally, the German is an adept Grass Court player with great success in Halle and a decent 10-9 mark at Wimbledon with a quarterfinal appearance in 2012. However, the German has also lost in the 1st round two of the last three years. His play in Halle showed someone who was struggling a bit, so he's boom or bust to me. I can see Sijsling beating him to open or Kohlschreiber being in position for a 4th round match.

#23 Tommy Robredo
Robredo has two 1st round losses in the last three years at Wimbledon. He did make the 3rd round last year and beat a pretty decent grass courter in Mahut. Still, he's shaky on this surface and Lacko may bite him in the 1st round.

#30 Marcel Granollers
This figures to be a popular 1st round upset pick as he goes against Nicolas Mahut. Granollers has lost in the 1st round in three straight years.

#32 Dmitry Tursunov
Tursunov has to be on this list simply because his 1st round draw of Denis Istomin is a rough one. Istomin is 3-0 against the Russian this year, all coming on hard courts. Oh that and he withdrew from Hertogenbosch with a foot injury.

Qualifiers Records in Round One
7-5 in 2013
7-3 in 2012
3-9 in 2011
6-5 in 2010

Qualifiers are always ones to watch in the 1st round as they cane have an edge with more match play. A pretty solid track record for qualifiers who play non-qualifiers in the opening round over the last four years. Don't overestimate them against some of the seeded players though. For the most part, they do not have a great track record of knocking off seeds in the opening round. Do look at match-ups though, there are some where it does make sense to try.

You are definitely the Leo Tolstoy of the SBR forum.

[EaglesPhan36]

Leave it to the WTA to screw up the open parlay. Cetkovska trailing.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cetkovska = right side of the choke

OP alive thru 5 slots.

[EaglesPhan36]

And De Brito wins to boot! That closes out all day 1 stuff.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like Sijsling is not gonna provide a test for Kohlschreiber. Broken to start each set. So far the doggies not barking among my picks today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like the blood flows today. All my doggies failing.Lacko blew the 1st set. Best thing today was the open parlay not cracking.

[NguyenImproved]

I guess it's true what that guy said.

You're a great read but worse capper here.


Verbose, prolix, horrible analysis skills...


3/3 aint bad.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thank you Space Ghost. Appreciate the stalk.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: -3.23
Wimbledon: +0.33

[sicknfast]

what do you think about matosevic+berdych parlay tomorrow?

[EaglesPhan36]

Probably a safer pick than Matosevic to pair it with. That one is tough to call. Berdych probably too consistent for Tonic since he's not quite there yet, but this is the one surface Tomic could challenge him if Berdych is having a so-so day.

[sicknfast]

Probably a safer pick than Matosevic to pair it with. That one is tough to call. Berdych probably too consistent for Tonic since he's not quite there yet, but this is the one surface Tomic could challenge him if Berdych is having a so-so day.

thanks ep36. or have you got any safe opinion for tomorrow?

[EaglesPhan36]

Haven't started looking just yet.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wimbledon, Monday June 23rd
Open Parlay #1 [8 slots] *Risking 1.0 units
1. Stepanek -980 [6.23]
2. Querrey -720 [6.23]
3. Kvitova -765 [6.23]
4. Giraldo -395 [6.24]
5. Cetkovska -620 [6.24]
6. Youzhny -490 [6.25]
7. Vandeweghe -475 [6.25]

Adding two to the Open Parlay to try to get to the Money Slot of #8.

[EaglesPhan36]

With doubles starting, going to open another Open Parlay to use with doubles and singles.

Wimbledon, Wednesday June 25th
Open Parlay #2 [8 slots] *Risking 1.0 units
1. Murray-Peers -395 [6.25]
2. Melzer-Lopez -420 [6.25]
3. Nestor-Zimonjic -705 [6.25]

[EaglesPhan36]

Singles *0.5 unit each risked on dogs & to win 0.5 on Wickmayer/Total to win 1.0 unit
Stakhovsky +265
Roger-Vasselin +190
Becker +160
Wickmayer -130
Ferrer-Kuznetsov Under 30.5 @ -115

[EaglesPhan36]

Saw quite a few on Stak. Kudos!

[shari91]

Saw quit a few on Stak. Kudos!

Woohoo!! Scared me a bit when I realised I had bet right into a TI train but thankfully it worked out for us.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah sometimes it works out. Ferrer may have just dunked up the Under. Gave the break back erg.

[Simon Gruber]

Kuznetsov is a hell of young player. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls this out.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good on clay & Challengers so far. Expected better from Ferrer with better surface experience because Kuznetsov was flirting with trouble against Evans all match. Oh well, maybe Kuznetsov is another albatross for me. Probably would have taken 3-0 instead of # of games, but not an option for me.

Wouldn't have mattered from the look of it.

[ayororick]

Know Ferrer hasn't been well lately, physically that is. Hoping for a retirement.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah had the flu. Thought he was good to go after he crushed Busta in the last three sets, but I guess that was not a correct assumption. Definitely something not quite right.

[EaglesPhan36]

All that bein said, Ferrer won't retire and he's probably going to find a way to win.

[STAY STRONG]

Youzhny needs to get his shit together.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like Youzhny will be killing OP #1. Talked myself off Kvitova & added my boy. Doh!

Was too focused on her hamstring even though it seemed no bother in round one.

[EaglesPhan36]

One back for the Youzhinator.