EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #2486
    2014 Season Overall Profit: +2.06
    Wimbledon: +4.40

    Down today, but goal achieved for the tourney to get back above the break even mark. I'm done for Wimbledon with the futures all in play for the title matches, no need to press anything although I'm sure I will look over the props list for the men's final. Good luck with your selections.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #2487
      Futures Plays *All risking 0.5 unit
      Kerber to Win @ +7500
      Federer to Win @ +550
      Dimitrov to Win Quarter @ +475
      Kvitova to Win @ +300
      Bouchard to Win @ +450

      So for Futures @ Wimbledon, it's +1.87 at the moment. Guaranteed something tomorrow and then will hedge with some play on Djokovic on Sunday. Probably the best futures tournament for me since last year at Wimbledon with the Bartoli hit, although by "volume" I suppose this is a better success. Bartoli was just one of those once a year lotto hits. Again though, anyone who tells you Futures are not worth while needs to go get that noggin checked out. I'm still digging up my e-mails from the other tournaments for the person who was asking how I might have done all year on Futures because I'm not sure. If I'm soberish tonight, I'll be working on that with some vino.
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #2488
        Futures tally up to +2.87 with the Kvitova win. Nothing fancy on Sunday. Risking 1.60 on Djokovic to hedge against the Federer future, so will be +0.5 if Djokovic wins and +1.15 if Fed wins. Greenout kids, don't be a sucka. See you for Newport this week ... beefcake, you ready for those favorite to go to the graveyard?
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #2489
          July 6th
          ATP Newport Qualis: King @ -125

          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #2490
            Crud. T.I. burial today. Was all King tips, but I could not bring myself to try Odesnik. Actually did agree. So be it. Alright, prep time for the main draw for Newport.
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #2491
              ATP Newport Mini-View
              It's the last grass court tournament of the season at the site of the Tennis Hall of Fame. Defending champion Nicolas Mahut is back as the 4th seed, while two time winner John Isner leads the field as your top seed. The top eight seeds also include Ivo Karlovic, Lleyton Hewitt, Donald Young, Steve Johnson, Jack Sock & Adrian Mannarino.

              Seeds are often prone to upsets early at this tournament. Since 2010, seeded players have dropped ten matches in the opening round. Qualifiers are ones to watch against the seeded players in that opening round. Seeds also generally are picked off as the tournament progresses as well with two semifinalists in three of the last four years being non-seeds with at least one non-seed making the semis each year in that span.

              Three of the top seeds this year look like oens to watch as they generally do effort well here. Isner has won twice with a 13-3 mark all-time. Mahut has won once with a 15-7 mark. Hewitt is 9-3, making the Finals each of the last two years. Keep that in mind as the other five seeds might be better guys to keep your eyes on to go against this week with the right match-ups.

              Seed Trouble
              #5 Donald Young
              By match-up alone, Young is going to be up against it in the opening round. He's got hard serving Sam Groth. Groth lost early at the Winnetka Challenger, but his grass court form was decent overseas with a Finals appearance in one of the Nottingham Challengers and working his way through qualis and into the Wimbledon main draw. Young beat him last year on hard courts, so there is that. Still, an upset seems possible. If he survives, his second match would be against Berankis or Jaziri. Jaziri would be the tougher out on current form and the surface.

              #7 Jack Sock
              Sock is one I would look at going against this week. He'll be flying high from his doubles title, but he's not been able to find that much success in singles on grass. He's just 4-5 all-time on the surface. He's 2-2 all-time at Newport, one of those wins coming via retirement last year. Kuznetsov could be tough right off the bat as the American worked into the main draw at Wimbledon and nearly beat Fognini before blowing a two set lead. He upset the seven seed last year at this tournament, knocking off Kenny De Schepper.

              #8 Adrian Mannarino
              Tough draw for the Frenchman against Jimmy Wang. Wang should have plenty of belief on the surface after a 3rd round run at Wimbledon. Mannarino will certainly have form on his side after winning the Manta Challenger, but he went through a very long week to win there with qualis and the run through the Finals. Put some travel on top of that and Wang could score the opening round upset.

              Futures Watch
              Hewitt +800
              Hewitt has a nice draw for the first few rounds. He opens against Ryan Harrison who has been out of form and now nursing a back injury. The other seed in his quarter is Steve Johnson who has never played at Newport, but will be a threat. Outside of Johnson, the rest of the quarter appears to be filled with players that Hewitt should feel comfortable against on grass. He'll have to get through Isner in the semis, but he could be a nice investment to start with and trade out on.

              Stakhovsky +2800
              If you want a longshot, Stakhovsky might be your guy. His quarter has Karlovic as the highest seed and his likely 2nd round opponent should he make it through. A potentially fatigued Mannarino is the other seed in this quarter. The more dangerous guy could be Wang. Stak has some ability on grass as we've seen, his desire will be the big question. At long odds, may be worth a smaller shot though.

              Mahut +1000
              A disappointing Wimbledon flameout for Mahut could lead you to steer clear this week, but his draw is really nice. Young is the other seed and he could be gone early against Groth. Even if he's around, Young still hasn't shown the consistency on grass recently. Mahut took advantage of a similarly simple draw that also took shape for him with some upsets last season. The bottom portion of the draw looks a bit more open to me and that makes this look enticing.
              Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 07-06-14, 07:00 PM.
              Comment
              • matt1216
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-27-11
                • 14683

                #2492
                Steve Johnson's my dark horse here EP, good luck on your picks bud.
                Comment
                • marniblitz
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 01-20-13
                  • 74

                  #2493
                  Once again, EP, thanks for taking the time to write this up and post it. Great stuff and much appreciated by many here.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #2494
                    Thanks. I enjoy the research and scoping out the draws really seems to help me some. Hopefully it helps others whether it's fade material or whstever.

                    Qualifiers who look interesting are Pavic & Saville.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #2495
                      July 7th: ATP Newport
                      Johnson-Thompson Over 20.5 @ -120
                      Groth @ -110
                      Ram @ +120


                      Total is to win 1.0 units. Other two picks are either risking 0.5 unit or to win 0.5 unit.
                      Comment
                      • Nevaenuffinc
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 04-11-13
                        • 46

                        #2496
                        Hey Eagles can you give me a little insight on Berrer vs Mayer? I'm leaning towards Berrer but am always looking for extra help as well.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #2497
                          I'm not paying much attention to the clay tourneys this week. Only thing I can say is Berrer doesn't win on clay much, but I've seen Mayer no show plenty enought to not want anything to do with him at that price. If it was a hard surface, Berrer would have a better shot. He might be competitive enough to get an over done. Both guys can serve well if they care.
                          Comment
                          • Hardcoar
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-17-13
                            • 15606

                            #2498
                            Ebden is me favorite fadin'.
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #2499
                              Ebden & Pryzsiezny should do a loser leaves the tour match.
                              Comment
                              • Yezzir
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 03-29-10
                                • 933

                                #2500
                                Brilliant stuff once more EP. Also remember you spotting Kyrgios way before he was this good.
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #2501
                                  Total was a bummer for me. Expected Thompson to do more with his frame and experience against Stevie J, but he was a fish out of water.

                                  Kyrgios really started shining a year ago in Juniors/Challengers and I think he might have been even further ahead now if not for injuries. He should be the next big shit for the Aussies to be stoked about and they can let Tonic fade away.
                                  Comment
                                  • Cappinpicks
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 03-11-10
                                    • 14986

                                    #2502
                                    Tipsters killing it with ram and Groth.. big wins for me
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #2503
                                      2014 Season Overall Profit: +1.39
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #2504
                                        July 8th: ATP Newport
                                        Parlay: Stakhovsky + Pavic @ +135
                                        Wang @ -115
                                        Kuznetsov @ +135

                                        *Everything either risking 0.5 unit or to win 0.5 unit
                                        Comment
                                        • ParlayininHTown
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 06-27-10
                                          • 7561

                                          #2505
                                          Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                          Ebden is me favorite fadin'.
                                          Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                          Ebden & Pryzsiezny should do a loser leaves the tour match.

                                          Ebden

                                          Still remember that fukker losing to RRH at Washington when RRH hadn't won a match in more than two years on any surface other than clay.
                                          Comment
                                          • STAY STRONG
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-07-10
                                            • 2498

                                            #2506
                                            Solid writeup as usual. Thanks, EP.
                                            Comment
                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 71662

                                              #2507
                                              TI blood bath on Wang. Those pick em lines, majority picks there still tend to not work out so well. Ugh.
                                              Comment
                                              • Kucera
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 06-18-14
                                                • 220

                                                #2508
                                                Hi EP! What do you think of Johnson+Groth parlay tomorrow?
                                                Comment
                                                • brodie
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-25-13
                                                  • 2212

                                                  #2509
                                                  Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                  Ebden & Pryzsiezny should do a loser leaves the tour match.
                                                  lolllll
                                                  Comment
                                                  • zec
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 01-03-14
                                                    • 548

                                                    #2510
                                                    Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                    Ebden & Pryzsiezny should do a loser leaves the tour match.
                                                    They are playing doubles against each other today. That should count
                                                    Comment
                                                    • marniblitz
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 01-20-13
                                                      • 74

                                                      #2511
                                                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                      TI blood bath on Wang. Those pick em lines, majority picks there still tend to not work out so well. Ugh.
                                                      Uggg...yep. Exact same thing as last year: puts together a nice little run at Wimbledon and then craps out first round at Newport.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #2512
                                                        Parlay won at least.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #2513
                                                          Adding
                                                          Doubles: Erlich-Ram @ -105
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-06-06
                                                            • 71662

                                                            #2514
                                                            Originally posted by Kucera
                                                            Hi EP! What do you think of Johnson+Groth parlay tomorrow?
                                                            Don't know those prices, but both seem good shots.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #2515
                                                              Should have talked to myself louder about skipping doubles. Need to get away from pick em lines.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #2516
                                                                Well dubs worked out. Go figure.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #2517
                                                                  2014 Season Overall Profit: +1.49

                                                                  Mini-profit. Mini mini.

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #2518
                                                                    July 9th: ATP Newport
                                                                    Parlay: Johnson + Guccione-Hewitt *Risking 1.00 units to win 0.84 units
                                                                    Sela @ +180 *Risking 0.5 unit
                                                                    Hewitt-Pavic Over 2.5 Sets @ +160 *Risking 0.5 unit
                                                                    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 07-09-14, 07:33 AM.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #2519
                                                                      Split the plus money plays, so some profit there. Need dubs to finish off the parlay.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                                        • 71662

                                                                        #2520
                                                                        Parlay cashes with the dubs win for a nice day.
                                                                        Comment
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