EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +2.06
Wimbledon: +4.40

Down today, but goal achieved for the tourney to get back above the break even mark. I'm done for Wimbledon with the futures all in play for the title matches, no need to press anything although I'm sure I will look over the props list for the men's final. Good luck with your selections.

[EaglesPhan36]

Futures Plays *All risking 0.5 unit
Kerber to Win @ +7500
Federer to Win @ +550
Dimitrov to Win Quarter @ +475
Kvitova to Win @ +300
Bouchard to Win @ +450

So for Futures @ Wimbledon, it's +1.87 at the moment. Guaranteed something tomorrow and then will hedge with some play on Djokovic on Sunday. Probably the best futures tournament for me since last year at Wimbledon with the Bartoli hit, although by "volume" I suppose this is a better success. Bartoli was just one of those once a year lotto hits. Again though, anyone who tells you Futures are not worth while needs to go get that noggin checked out. I'm still digging up my e-mails from the other tournaments for the person who was asking how I might have done all year on Futures because I'm not sure. If I'm soberish tonight, I'll be working on that with some vino.

[EaglesPhan36]

Futures tally up to +2.87 with the Kvitova win. Nothing fancy on Sunday. Risking 1.60 on Djokovic to hedge against the Federer future, so will be +0.5 if Djokovic wins and +1.15 if Fed wins. Greenout kids, don't be a sucka. See you for Newport this week ... beefcake, you ready for those favorite to go to the graveyard?

[EaglesPhan36]

July 6th
ATP Newport Qualis: King @ -125

[EaglesPhan36]

Crud. T.I. burial today. Was all King tips, but I could not bring myself to try Odesnik. Actually did agree. So be it. Alright, prep time for the main draw for Newport.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Newport Mini-View
It's the last grass court tournament of the season at the site of the Tennis Hall of Fame. Defending champion Nicolas Mahut is back as the 4th seed, while two time winner John Isner leads the field as your top seed. The top eight seeds also include Ivo Karlovic, Lleyton Hewitt, Donald Young, Steve Johnson, Jack Sock & Adrian Mannarino.

Seeds are often prone to upsets early at this tournament. Since 2010, seeded players have dropped ten matches in the opening round. Qualifiers are ones to watch against the seeded players in that opening round. Seeds also generally are picked off as the tournament progresses as well with two semifinalists in three of the last four years being non-seeds with at least one non-seed making the semis each year in that span.

Three of the top seeds this year look like oens to watch as they generally do effort well here. Isner has won twice with a 13-3 mark all-time. Mahut has won once with a 15-7 mark. Hewitt is 9-3, making the Finals each of the last two years. Keep that in mind as the other five seeds might be better guys to keep your eyes on to go against this week with the right match-ups.

Seed Trouble
#5 Donald Young
By match-up alone, Young is going to be up against it in the opening round. He's got hard serving Sam Groth. Groth lost early at the Winnetka Challenger, but his grass court form was decent overseas with a Finals appearance in one of the Nottingham Challengers and working his way through qualis and into the Wimbledon main draw. Young beat him last year on hard courts, so there is that. Still, an upset seems possible. If he survives, his second match would be against Berankis or Jaziri. Jaziri would be the tougher out on current form and the surface.

#7 Jack Sock
Sock is one I would look at going against this week. He'll be flying high from his doubles title, but he's not been able to find that much success in singles on grass. He's just 4-5 all-time on the surface. He's 2-2 all-time at Newport, one of those wins coming via retirement last year. Kuznetsov could be tough right off the bat as the American worked into the main draw at Wimbledon and nearly beat Fognini before blowing a two set lead. He upset the seven seed last year at this tournament, knocking off Kenny De Schepper.

#8 Adrian Mannarino
Tough draw for the Frenchman against Jimmy Wang. Wang should have plenty of belief on the surface after a 3rd round run at Wimbledon. Mannarino will certainly have form on his side after winning the Manta Challenger, but he went through a very long week to win there with qualis and the run through the Finals. Put some travel on top of that and Wang could score the opening round upset.

Futures Watch
Hewitt +800
Hewitt has a nice draw for the first few rounds. He opens against Ryan Harrison who has been out of form and now nursing a back injury. The other seed in his quarter is Steve Johnson who has never played at Newport, but will be a threat. Outside of Johnson, the rest of the quarter appears to be filled with players that Hewitt should feel comfortable against on grass. He'll have to get through Isner in the semis, but he could be a nice investment to start with and trade out on.

Stakhovsky +2800
If you want a longshot, Stakhovsky might be your guy. His quarter has Karlovic as the highest seed and his likely 2nd round opponent should he make it through. A potentially fatigued Mannarino is the other seed in this quarter. The more dangerous guy could be Wang. Stak has some ability on grass as we've seen, his desire will be the big question. At long odds, may be worth a smaller shot though.

Mahut +1000
A disappointing Wimbledon flameout for Mahut could lead you to steer clear this week, but his draw is really nice. Young is the other seed and he could be gone early against Groth. Even if he's around, Young still hasn't shown the consistency on grass recently. Mahut took advantage of a similarly simple draw that also took shape for him with some upsets last season. The bottom portion of the draw looks a bit more open to me and that makes this look enticing.

[matt1216]

Steve Johnson's my dark horse here EP, good luck on your picks bud.

[marniblitz]

Once again, EP, thanks for taking the time to write this up and post it. Great stuff and much appreciated by many here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. I enjoy the research and scoping out the draws really seems to help me some. Hopefully it helps others whether it's fade material or whstever.

Qualifiers who look interesting are Pavic & Saville.

[EaglesPhan36]

July 7th: ATP Newport
Johnson-Thompson Over 20.5 @ -120
Groth @ -110
Ram @ +120

Total is to win 1.0 units. Other two picks are either risking 0.5 unit or to win 0.5 unit.

[Nevaenuffinc]

Hey Eagles can you give me a little insight on Berrer vs Mayer? I'm leaning towards Berrer but am always looking for extra help as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm not paying much attention to the clay tourneys this week. Only thing I can say is Berrer doesn't win on clay much, but I've seen Mayer no show plenty enought to not want anything to do with him at that price. If it was a hard surface, Berrer would have a better shot. He might be competitive enough to get an over done. Both guys can serve well if they care.

[Hardcoar]

Ebden is me favorite fadin'.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ebden & Pryzsiezny should do a loser leaves the tour match.

[Yezzir]

Brilliant stuff once more EP. Also remember you spotting Kyrgios way before he was this good.

[EaglesPhan36]

Total was a bummer for me. Expected Thompson to do more with his frame and experience against Stevie J, but he was a fish out of water.

Kyrgios really started shining a year ago in Juniors/Challengers and I think he might have been even further ahead now if not for injuries. He should be the next big shit for the Aussies to be stoked about and they can let Tonic fade away.

[Cappinpicks]

Tipsters killing it with ram and Groth.. big wins for me

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +1.39

[EaglesPhan36]

July 8th: ATP Newport
Parlay: Stakhovsky + Pavic @ +135
Wang @ -115
Kuznetsov @ +135
*Everything either risking 0.5 unit or to win 0.5 unit

[ParlayininHTown]

Ebden is me favorite fadin'.

Ebden & Pryzsiezny should do a loser leaves the tour match.

Ebden

Still remember that fukker losing to RRH at Washington when RRH hadn't won a match in more than two years on any surface other than clay.

[STAY STRONG]

Solid writeup as usual. Thanks, EP.

[EaglesPhan36]

TI blood bath on Wang. Those pick em lines, majority picks there still tend to not work out so well. Ugh.

[Kucera]

Hi EP! What do you think of Johnson+Groth parlay tomorrow?

[brodie]

Ebden & Pryzsiezny should do a loser leaves the tour match.

lolllll

[zec]

Ebden & Pryzsiezny should do a loser leaves the tour match.

They are playing doubles against each other today. That should count

[marniblitz]

TI blood bath on Wang. Those pick em lines, majority picks there still tend to not work out so well. Ugh.

Uggg...yep. Exact same thing as last year: puts together a nice little run at Wimbledon and then craps out first round at Newport.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay won at least.

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding
Doubles: Erlich-Ram @ -105

[EaglesPhan36]

Hi EP! What do you think of Johnson+Groth parlay tomorrow?

Don't know those prices, but both seem good shots.

[EaglesPhan36]

Should have talked to myself louder about skipping doubles. Need to get away from pick em lines.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well dubs worked out. Go figure.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +1.49

Mini-profit. Mini mini.

[EaglesPhan36]

July 9th: ATP Newport
Parlay: Johnson + Guccione-Hewitt *Risking 1.00 units to win 0.84 units
Sela @ +180 *Risking 0.5 unit
Hewitt-Pavic Over 2.5 Sets @ +160 *Risking 0.5 unit

[EaglesPhan36]

Split the plus money plays, so some profit there. Need dubs to finish off the parlay.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay cashes with the dubs win for a nice day.