ATP Rome Doubles: Haase-Lopez -165
*To win 0.5 unit
*To win 0.5 unit
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Well damn, that was easy. Under an hour LoL .. guess Dimitrov/Rosol were ready to get on a plane.
2014 Season Overall Profit: +8.54Comment -
ATP Nice Mini-View
Motivation is definitely something to watch. Never expect the names or home country players are necessarily there to push hard to win. Frenchman make up half the top eight seeds with Mahut and Roger-Vasselin earning seeds this week. None of the participants this year have won the title here before. Monfils was closest as a finalist in 2013.
Outside of Gulbis who has decent form relatively speaking in comparison to some of these guys, I think Isner, Monfils & Simon among the top four could all be expected to want to find some good form heading to the French Open next week. Injuries for Isner & Monfils bare watching. Think outside the box for at least one Finalist as a Wild card, Qualifier and non-seeded player have made the Final here in three of the four years of the tournament's existence.
1st/2nd Round Upset Watch
Nedovyesov over Tursunov [1st]
This is still by far the Russian's worst surface and the first-up losses to to Huegun, Machado and Thiem on clay this year are reason for concern - although Thiem certainly is not unexpected now. Nedovyesov has had some hip issues, so I would not suggest going for more than a half stakes type bet here.
Thiem/Johnson over Simon [2nd]
Thiem will be a popular pick if he's the one in this spot to take on Simon in his 1st match this week in Nice. Simon will have people's attention after playing Nadal tough, but this is also a guy who has lost to Kubot, Rosol & Gabashvili on this surface in 2014. Check the price and match-up on this one.
Klizan over Gulbis [2nd]
Eagerly awaiting this spot if Klizan can push past Tomic in the 1st round. Klizan may have started to find himself again this Spring. He won in Munich, played well in Barcelona and made a Challenger Final on clay prior to that. Gulbis has been steady on clay during the Masters' swing, but his effort level this week just might be low enough to get clipped.
Isner Quarter
The #1 seed is just 2-3 on dirt this year and may still be nursing a bit of a back problem. He'll face de Schepper or Sock first. Winnable, but by no means a given for someone with back trouble. Delbons is the 7th seed in this quarter and could make the semis if Isner is out of sorts.
Simon Quarter
Two Frenchman are the seeds in this quarter. Simon as the #4 and Mahut as the #6. Very dangerous non-seeds here that could blow up this quarter. Simon will face Thiem or Steve Johnson. Mahut will get Benneteau or Berlocq if he makes it past a qualifier in his first match. I'll be surprised if both seeds meet in the quarterfinals. I'll call this quarter and upset though and perhaps the quarter that produces a non-seed that might sneak into the Final. The Benneteau-Berlocq winner is who I would watch.
Monfils Quarter
Monfils has been gifted a pretty nice draw. Montanes or Ebden will be his first opponent. If his ankle is close to 100%, neither should be a problem. The top of the quarter sees Roger-Vasselin as the 8th seed. He cruised in his opener and awaits qualifier Leonardo Mayer or wild card Borna Coric. Keep an eye on Roger-Vasselin who made the semis here last year and seems to effort well here. My thought is Monfils makes the semis if healthy. If not, Roger-Vasselin has the inside track.
Gulbis Quarter
Gulbis should plow through this quarter, but effort level and a possible land mine in his 1st up should keep you from expecting too much. He will open against Klizan or or Tomic. As I posed earlier, Klizan may be on his way back to relevance. He's been playing well on the surface and is likely to be more motivated this week than Gulbis. Tursunov is the 5th seed up top. Volandri and Haase meet in the other 1st rounder. A very turbulent quarter here with guys who can flip the switch on and off mentally each week. \ Haase is one to watch. He's good enough to sneak up in these 250s as he did making the semis in Bucharest.
Futures Investments
Monfils +450
Delbonis +2000
Roger-Vasselin +2500
*I would watch Monfils play a match before investing. You might lose a bit on price, but you should be able to determine health which is worth it. Delbonis & ERV seem worth a small investment at the price.
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5.19.14 ATP Nice
Nedovyesov +185
Vaisse +158
Pouille +248
*All bets in Nice this week will be either risking 0.5 unit or to win 0.5 unit.
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Why do you like Nedovyesov, EP?Comment -
Booking Pouille @ +260 instead.Comment -
fading tursunov witha scrub
tell tale sign of an air bettor
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Glad I could give you a term to over use. Will you define it for me so that I know you are properly self aware.Comment -
And don't worry, I bet Tursunov live at Bovada after the 1st set for -30000 to cover my losses. I too, never don't break even or win. I'm a billionaire. Surprised you haven't said hi to me at the secret meetings inside Mark Cuban's bearskin rug.Comment -
^^^
Don't think 4 sentences have ever mad me laugh harder than that.Comment -
Well Pouille probably blew his wad now. Had 4-2 in the 2nd, but did not consolidate the break and loses the next four .games & the set.Comment -
Typical inexperience showing now following the choke. Shovel the dirt on top.Comment -
today was a square's wet dream. get em tomorrow EPComment -
EP, tomorrow is Tuesday.
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I still think your theory needs back testing. Upsets price wise last week seemed about the same Monday/Tuesday. Could be wrong, but I think over the course of a year there is not a marked difference. Like anything, trends one way and then another.Comment -
Start recording then, I'm only trying to help. I honestly think it's a larger ploy by the books to sucker everyone into high chalk. Today high chalk hit everywhere. People made money. The same people wagering will feel good about today and lay high chalk parlays everywhere. These Tuesdays are usually catostrophic for Chalk eaters. The previous 2 Tuesdays there hasn't been a large diffrence in victories on Tuesdays. Percentage wise it's been decent tho. Keep an eye outComment -
This forum and conspiracy theorists...
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LoL. I pick what I like. If I start trying to figure out what day dogs are meant to win and chalk wins on what days ... I'd be 0 fer more than I do now and I do that plenty still.
For me, I operate the same every day. Try not to over extend on chalk, hope to find dogs who hit when they fall into a good situation, etc.Comment -
You as well. I guess my only point was being selective every day seems like a good idea. And I know you won't be off betting all dogs on Tuesday, just maybe mire than usual. I can understand following your trends. Hopefully nobody ever blind bets all chalk or all dogs.Comment -
Filling this through qualis @ the French Open & ATP Nice.
OPEN PARLAY [7 Slots] - Risking 1.0 unit
#1 [5.20] Nice: Rojer-Tecau -300
#2 [5.20] FO Qualis: Kokkinakis -310
#3 [5.20] FO Qualis: A.Kuznetsov -540
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Any thoughts on Berlocq EP?Comment -
I think he stands a good chance. Benneteau won his first title of any sort in three years I think and now has to do the quick turnaround. He played well last week and the Final was not taxing in that it took 60 minutes, but when you look at motivation this week ... there's not a ton for Benneteau it would seem with rest probably being the better course of action for a 32 year old heading into a Grand Slam. Berlocq is a better dirt baller.Comment -
My thoughts exactly. Thanks!Comment -
5.20.14 ATP French Open Qualifying
Androic -135
Cox +135
*All Quali bets either risking 0.5 or to win 0.5 unit
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Opinion on Tomic?Comment -
Open parlay dies early. Eesh.Comment -
Guilty pleasure. Almost always regretful
FO Qualis: Dancevic -150Comment -
Hi EP. I hope you have been well man. I am headed up to Arlington in 2 days, I hope the weather is good in your part of Texas..
I wish you the best in the wagers, as always. I started back today with 4 plays, of course the parlay hits easy. I took Benneteau over Berlocq as a small dog, what a match going on there at 3-3 in the third set huh??! Coin flip now..
I really think Sock has his hands full today, sure like the over there, Sock is not a good clay court player at all - DeScheppy might use the crowd and that serve to make an interesting match..
Just wanted to say Hi, I hope to be back a bit & maybe I can contribute some educated talk to our tennis plays..
Take care..Comment -
Ugh. This Croatian kid chokes away a break again. Young players
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Probably play more qualis tomorrow. Did not want to over extend today, but most of what I liked turned out well as I tracked them. Of course if I played them all, who knows!Comment
