EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

[fitguy67]

5.20.14 ATP French Open Qualifying
Androic -135
Cox +135

...of course the dog takes care of business in straights and the fave sucks like a porn star...what else could we expect?

Both of these are weak examples of it (being only 25 or so tics off centre)...but i notice that whenever two young'uns with zero h2h record between them play and very similar ranking and recent form meet...seems books just choose one and make it a favorite (of one size or another, sometimes surprisingly large), rather than just hang a -110/-110 and admit they don't have a clue...so whatever they hang, is really just a conversation starter...but it tempts the wannabe sharps into "reading into"...

i suspect that if a book has two players with no h2h and similar across the board due to go, they sometimes just pick one at random and make 'em a surprising fave, say -167...simply as a great "conversation starter" action-wise on their part, cuz u get all the "massive gift" cats on the one hand and the knee-jerk "beware of the trap" boys on the other...books are laughing all the way to the bank...they can even watch us on the chat boards and piss themselves as we heatedly discuss "what the books must know" to hang that line...

[EaglesPhan36]

Thought that one was set just fine. Androic has alot more experience on clay, but since most is Futures - they were not going to establish him as that big a favorite. I think most lines I saw seemed fair. Well I mean outside of some heavy chalk.

Very rare to see -110 lines on any level. Books gotta try to stimulate cash flow.

[fitguy67]

i agree...i was expressing the exact opposite of anything conspiratorial...

books just put up a line...and let us attach significance to it

and we always do (those with a tendency to see the fat-payout side as "a gift" vs. "a trap")...i'm now leaning toward the former camp= taking kindly (with less knee-jerk suspicion) to the surprisingly-big dog when no h2h and most else quite comparable and no hint of an injury or personal crisis...

knowing that books routinely hang a negative on one side as an arbitrary marketing "conversation starter" and that bettors often "smell a trap" on the side that has been given a bigger payout than it really should...magnifying some "gifts" far beyond what was originally offered to get the conversation started

i've noticed challengers and itf-broads markets are especially rife with funny lines that are best met with gratitude rather than suspicion...this has the added benefit that IF a fix is in...your probably auto-positioned on the right side of it

_________

anyhow...if, after due diligence, it still looks like a coin flip with an extra-fat payout (like that animal that quacks very often IS indeed a duck)...it IS worth the flier

the reverse approach...paying a fat premium cuz u knee-jerk want to be on the same side with THEM (you know, the books and/or the fixers and/or the sharp money=the guys that you and your forum-mates are convinced "know (and are hiding)something about" the match)
...this is long term happiness for the books
they love it when the sharp cats shoot themselves in the foot by overthinking (a nice complement to the stupid squares who shoot themselves in the foot by underthinking and backing their favorite or the most famous)...

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like rain will get a couple of these qualifying days. Be advised.

[beefcake]

Dam, makes it even tougher to tony to post lines. Dont want to give him any more problems such as weather.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. At least they got a chunk of matches in today to set up the next round.

[beefcake]

Still going to be tight times with the ladies starting up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well the plus is the forecast is for scattered storms and not just a downpour, so hopefully they can do like today at least to be somewhat on schedule.

[fitguy67]

davydenko over vesely at +140 ish,

very similar ranking, similarly mediocre recent form, no h2h...

anything my unrefined tennis-betting ass is missing?

jesus, am i passing thru my "davopnz" (gift-fascination) phase

[fitguy67]

another APPARENTLY (to this crude = hopefully "budding", but maybe "decaying" tennis mind) "funny line" that makes me want to sound cappinpicks' free-money alarm...

why the hell is granolla +135 against monaco...

similar mediocre recent form, but grans 3-1 h2h, last on clay in 2013/monaco's only W was in 2008

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +6.04

Dancevic pending from Tuesday.

[EaglesPhan36]

5.21.14
ATP Nice: Delbonis -135
ATP Nice: Tursunov +130
ATP Nice: Klizan +168
ATP FO-Q: Gicquel +255
ATP FO-Q: Groth +115
ATP FO-Q: [Parlay] Kokkinakis + Elias [-113]

[EaglesPhan36]

No comment on the Germany matches ... only following Nice and FO Qualis this week.

[Cessation]

another APPARENTLY (to this crude = hopefully "budding", but maybe "decaying" tennis mind) "funny line" that makes me want to sound cappinpicks' free-money alarm...

why the hell is granolla +135 against monaco...

similar mediocre recent form, but grans 3-1 h2h, last on clay in 2013/monaco's only W was in 2008

Monaco won the tournament last year so I guess people are expecting he will be motivated to defend some points. He crushed Becker in round 1 too, though I don't personally read anything into that as I could probably beat Benny Becker on clay. I feel there is value in Granollers.

Vesely is an up and coming player and should beat current Donkey. But it's Donkey, he can find old form and win matches here and there, rest of the time he sucks. I don't know I wouldn't touch matches involving him either way.

[EaglesPhan36]

All the French Open qualis plays for today that I had are shifted to tomorrow, so only the Nice plays and the finish of the Dancevic match.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dancevic wins. Yeehaw.

[EaglesPhan36]

Delbonis cruised. Dogs split in Nice. Not bad. Back to qualis tomorrow. Gicquel, Groth & parlay pending.

[matt1216]

I really like Groth EP, good luck tomorrow

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +7.19

[EaglesPhan36]

5.22
ATP Nice: Delbonis +130

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...
French Open Qualis: Haider-Maurer -120

[EaglesPhan36]

Delbonis future looks real tasty now if you got it early.

Qualis went well. Split the dogs. Parlay came thru. Haider-Maurer rolled.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +8.91

[EaglesPhan36]

5.23.14
ATP Nice: Simon-Delbonis Ends in 3 Sets [+145]
ATP FOQ Parlay: Schwartzman + Bolleli [+126]

[EaglesPhan36]

Split. Delbonis future yummy

[beefcake]

Great prediction on the future.Obviously you are going to hedge.

[bababooey13]

and who's to say you can't make money betting futures again?

[PharaohUB]

and who's to say you can't make money betting futures again?

I don't think anyone argues that. I think they just argue that you can get better odds just playing the guy straight up every match and rolling your winnings from match to match, and when you are ready to "hedge" you just don't bet. Then you don't lose extra juice on betting both sides. Also the odds are almost always much much better just to bet the player to win every match. Also added benefit... if a guy withdraws or retires in 1st set you get your money back.

[bababooey13]

I don't think anyone argues that. I think they just argue that you can get better odds just playing the guy straight up every match and rolling your winnings from match to match, and when you are ready to "hedge" you just don't bet. Then you don't lose extra juice on betting both sides. Also the odds are almost always much much better just to bet the player to win every match. Also added benefit... if a guy withdraws or retires in 1st set you get your money back.

believe me a few people (wont mention names) have claimed making money betting futures is impossible.

& ya thats a valid argument and alternative system to betting a future. but i would just prefer taking a long shot for a half unit,then hedge if he makes it far... Rather than putting a few units on a guy's initial match(delbo in this case) and rolling those winnings each match.

[Hardcoar]

Anyone who claims it is impossible in the long run is factually wrong; it's not a matter of opinion.

[beefcake]

See Wawrinka at 70-1 to win the Aussie Open?

[poet]

Ep, did you already do a writeup for the French, or is that coming?

[faststeady]

he's on vacation poet so unlikely

[matt1216]

See Wawrinka at 70-1 to win the Aussie Open?

Beef he was 45-1... 70-1 is insane

[poet]

he's on vacation poet so unlikely

Too bad. I always look forward to those. Well, maybe he can give us some of his future picks, for quarters, etc.