Matts Tennis Thread 2nd Edition....

[matt1216]

Challenger Play 2nd Feb 2014 adding:

Odesnik 1st set ML 1.80 x 3 units


GL

[professionalAD]

any play on young v ward? over looks like cake brotha

[matt1216]

any play on young v ward? over looks like cake brotha

No, it's over bro. Murray won. British wins 3-1 series

[matt1216]

Challenger Play West Lake Adelaide 2nd Feb 2014 adding:

Eames ML 2.30 x 3 units



GL

[HatersGonnaHate]

Do you ever pick favorites in challengers?? Seems like every challenger picks is a dog. I just don't think Eames has enough to win tonight.

[Hardcoar]

He just picked a dog.

[Spinny]

I was looking at this match to… Any reason behind picking Eames Matt?

[fitguy67]

Do you ever pick favorites in challengers?? Seems like every challenger picks is a dog. I just don't think Eames has enough to win tonight.

betting on something at a price of 2.30 does NOT mean you think it's absolutely "likely" to happen (ie. has a probability of 50% or greater)...

on the contrary all it requires is that you think it is more likely to happen than the probability implied by those odds, in this case just 43.48% = 1/2.30

___

so you're right, Eames very likely/very probably does not have what it takes to win tonight (versus the absolute 50% benchmark)...

but that doesn't mean it isn't a good bet...because any probability or likelihood that exceeds the relative 43.48% benchmark buried in the price means it (and all plays driven by the same logic) is $ long-term...as the $-gains of the occasional surprise wins more than offset the more frequent (and smaller) $-losses

[matt1216]

betting on something at a price of 2.30 does NOT mean you think it's absolutely "likely" to happen (ie. has a probability of 50% or greater)...

on the contrary all it requires is that you think it is more likely to happen than the probability implied by those odds, in this case just 43.48% = 1/2.30

___

so you're right, Eames very likely/very probably does not have what it takes to win tonight (versus the absolute 50% benchmark)...

but that doesn't mean it isn't a good bet...because any probability or likelihood that exceeds the relative 43.48% benchmark buried in the price means it (and all plays driven by the same logic) is $ long-term...as the $-gains of the occasional surprise wins more than offset the more frequent (and smaller) $-losses

thanks fitguy, I hate trying to explain this stuff. This will win slightly more than it loses. I've seen the trend.

[fitguy67]

i want some saville,2-0 @ 2.00...but b365 took it down...

[Spinny]

Same so I just went ML on Luke

[matt1216]

Challenger Play 2nd Feb 2014 adding:

sekiguchi Ml 2.80 x 1 unit

*why not. This guy has lost 9 of his last 10. He's lost both his matches vs Saville. He should be 3.50 atleast. I smell fish here, but I could be way off.


GL

[stepanekslips]

Challenger Play 2nd Feb 2014 adding:

sekiguchi Ml 2.80 x 1 unit

*why not. This guy has lost 9 of his last 10. He's lost both his matches vs Saville. He should be 3.50 atleast. I smell fish here, but I could be way off.


GL

Respect. Whats your losses/profits?

[Jago2008]

Congratulations to Seattle

I'm so happy I discussed live-betting this game and not my initial lean.

I'm jealous being a Chargers fan, you guys get your 1st NFL championship but it's no surprise what an amazing defensive effort. Seattle had a safety, special teams return TD, defensive TD, rush TD, Pass TD, and FG. Engage.

GL on your tennis bets.

[fitguy67]

Challenger Play 2nd Feb 2014 adding:

sekiguchi Ml 2.80 x 1 unit

*why not. This guy has lost 9 of his last 10. He's lost both his matches vs Saville. He should be 3.50 atleast. I smell fish here, but I could be way off.


GL

i just joined u @10.00 in-play...half unit on the SLF (smell like fish) lottery to win 4.5

[fitguy67]

Respect. Whats your losses/profits?

go back two pages, post #1253 for most recent thread-to-date figures

matt's very good over the long haul but streaky over the short, so you gotta fire reasonably-sized bullets...same as with any good capper, come to think of it...

no way around it...sports-betting is streaky for everybody..but only a handful can do it profitably...Matt, Hardcoar, and EP36 are three who can

[stepanekslips]

i just joined u @10.00 in-play...half unit on the SLF (smell like fish) lottery to win 4.5

Which book?

[Spinny]

Blown out to 15.0 on my book but I still wouldn't touch it tbh Luke is already up a break in second

[fitguy67]

bet365

[stepanekslips]

Gucci Mane breaks for the first time? Hope springs mang.

[fitguy67]

Spinny, this bet is not on "Challenger Tennis as Sport"...but rather on "Challenger Tennis as Choreography"...

a little sportbook-assisted income-padding for these poor schlepps that we might be able to benefit from...

hmmm...the plot thickens a bit as Sekiguchi breaks back to tie the set

update: didn't follow the script to the happy ending...doh!

[Spinny]

Yeah I understand. I'm aware these matches can turn randomly, I guess I just saw it as dead money in this match but I'm biased because I use to play tennis with Luke

[matt1216]

Challenger Play Chennai Qualifier 2nd Feb 2014 adding:

R. Becker ML 1.87 x 3 units

[alpinepetey]

Challenger Play 2nd Feb 2014 adding:

Becker ML 1.87 x 3 units

Is this Benjamin Becker?

[matt1216]

Is this Benjamin Becker?

No, it's richard becker

[Spinny]

No it's Richard Becker

[alpinepetey]

Thanks Matt and Spinny

[matt1216]

holly fck!! First it's Odesnik that fcks me set 1. Now becker up 5-3 losses 7-5 wtf is going on

[matt1216]

Challenger Plays 3rd Feb 2013:

Millot/Texiera 2.20 x 2 units

*Kenz play(Texiera)



GL

[rankslash]

holly fck!! First it's Odesnik that fcks me set 1. Now becker up 5-3 losses 7-5 wtf is going on

hm Odesnik won first set?

[Hardcoar]

No. That was the point.

He was serving for the set and lost four straight games. Then I went to bed and woke up to some cash.

[roger nadal]

i had odesnik over Wang yesterday night!!!nice win!!!

[roger nadal]

but i had Errani to win also!!! bad lost!!

[addictedto]

Challenger Plays 3rd Feb 2013:

Millot/Texiera 2.20 x 2 units

*Kenz play(Texiera)



GL

I took same thing, but Milot 2-0 so the double is @2.70. All now on Teix

Let's get it!

[addictedto]

Damn did I jinx it