Matt's updated picks

[Hardcoar]

Not doubting you but i think Federer said yesterday in the press conference that this court is slower than Paris

In that case I would be doubting myself very much too. GOAT-master Fed' is likely a stronger authority on the subject than I am. I've seen a couple of reports holding Paris as one of the slower on tour, and others USO as relatively quick.

[matt1216]

Challenger/ATP Play 4 Nov

Gonzalez + Bagnis 1.80 x 5 units

Granollers+M.Lopez ML 1.95 x 9 units





Gl

[reddZor]

is that the granollers and m lopez double matt?

edit* no play on your fav belluci?!

[kenz]

Court conditions match well with federer and Wawrinka style of players

For indoor it is medium fast and the ball bounce medium

[GoBlue77]

Yawn. Told you Berdych was garbage. too easy $$$
Berdych lol..

[Hardcoar]

I'm always equally confused by court characteristics and shit... wouldn't Federoar think the quicker the better?

[Hardcoar]

Yawn. Told you Berdych was garbage. too easy $$$
Berdych lol..

Oh so you bet on first set only then?

[GoBlue77]

Oh so you bet on first set only then?

The match was over before it even started

[Hardcoar]

Ah, I see!

[losschaser]

Not doubting you but i think Federer said yesterday in the press conference that this court is slower than Paris

The tournament committee noted the court is actually made 100% identical to Paris, medium-slow with high bounce

[Overbettor]

Berdych fuking sucks today. This tb is gonna be rough

[Hardcoar]

Thanks.

[matt1216]

What happened to garbage Berdych???? Wecond set winner 1.95. Not over till it's over

[matt1216]

Wawrinka largest lock I've ever seen ..

[addictedto]

Both are losers, they need to go home and have some rest.

[Overbettor]

I didn't say it was over. Just said he looks bad today and I expected a harder tie-breaker. I sure as fuk hope Tomas wins!

[matt1216]

is that the granollers and m lopez double matt?

edit* no play on your fav belluci?!

Bellucci isn't plaing today

[fitguy67]

You are aware that Pinnacle increases margins on parlays, are you not?

yes i'm aware of that...the price i quoted is with their actual parlay-adjusted odds...

Note to anyone using Pinnacle: unlike most other books, you can't just take main-board odds and figure out the parlay odds...you gotta go into "parlay/accumulator" mode to see what they'll really be...but since Pinny's tennis odds are generally very good, even after the small "tax" on each leg of the parlay, their overal odds on the play still comes out very competitive, very often the best

for example, main-board pinny odds may be better on each leg of a parlay than 5d...but on the same parlay, with each play taxed the way it is at Pinny, you can't assume pinny better and just whack in the parlay...u gotta go into Parlay mode there so you're comparing "apples" with "apples"...

[matt1216]

Challenger plays 4th Nov

Wolmarans + Andreozzi 1.85 x 5 units

Kravchuck ML 3.75 x 3 units

Sousa ML 2.70 x 2 units

Velotti ML 3.75 x 2 units

Delpotro+Andreozzi x 30 units****Large Wager****




Gl

[fitguy67]

Yawn. Told you Berdych was garbage. too easy $$$
Berdych lol..

Best thing about your parlay, was that if Bird/Rink went to a third set ur a winner no matter who wins...with the +1.5set cushion, whether your ticket says Wawa or Berdy doesn't matter.

Now, will the real Delpo and Gasquet please show up!

[matt1216]

Wow, that's the last time I put money on that Pos berdych

[Hardcoar]

yes i'm aware of that...the price i quoted is with their actual parlay-adjusted odds...

Note to anyone using Pinnacle: unlike most other books, you can't just take main-board odds and figure out the parlay odds...you gotta go into "parlay/accumulator" mode to see what they'll really be...but since Pinny's tennis odds are generally very good, even after the small "tax" on each leg of the parlay, their overal odds on the play still comes out very competitive, very often the best

for example, main-board pinny odds may be better on each leg of a parlay than 5d...but on the same parlay, with each play taxed the way it is at Pinny, you can't assume pinny better and just whack in the parlay...u gotta go into Parlay mode there so you're comparing "apples" with "apples"...

I expected it of you, to be honest.

I didn't expect – but should've expected – the revelation of Matt, on the other hand.

This all means you should never make parlays with Pinnacle... not that there's any reason to ever make any parlays whatsoever. In the very best case it's neutral, and since Pinnacle's parlay-adjusted margins are still better than other books... yeah...

[addictedto]

Delpotro+Andreozzi x 30 units****Large Wager****

Hm sounds good, but parlay odds only 1.40 in bet365. Wonder if Andreozzi who is in great form will make it in straight sets

[losschaser]

I like the Delpo + Andreozzi play. Should be a

[Doughboy22]

No andreozzi on 5dimes

[fitguy67]

I like the Delpo + Andreozzi play. Should be a

hope you have a really good penance lined up for us if this turns out to be a mush...

you know as well as I do that the time for "never in doubt"s is AFTER the matches...

that is why--after all--they take the trouble to actually play the scheduled matches...
___________
Murphy is always ready to step in and fukk up our plans with his Law...premature chicken-counting just gets his attention

[Hardcoar]

Hm sounds good, but parlay odds only 1.40 in bet365. Wonder if Andreozzi who is in great form will make it in straight sets

You think that sounds good @ 1.4?

Don't quit your day job!

[Bbfromgpt]

I got a little parlay going with

Birdshit/Wawrinka O 23.5

Delpotro

Nadal


Good luck

[axeltoft]

Hi matt1216. im just wondering why you are going against David Marrero/Fernando Verdasco? They won the last 6 meetings, and are up 12-1 in sets. And the last match was last month, and that looked like a easy win for them.

[pimpin]

Hi matt ive been readin your thread lately and you have posted some really good tips especially your large wagers.
Ive gone against you today though lol i just think gasquet looks really good value today at the odds he was playing some really good stuff last week
If del potro is still feeling the effects of so much tennis recently i can really see gasquet giving him trouble here

[losschaser]

Lapentti giving Andreozzi quite a workout, but Andre takes the first 7/6

Hopefully second set is more straightforward

[matt1216]

ATP play for 4th Nov

Delpotro/gasquet under 21 1.91 x 10 units**** large Wager****

[matt1216]

Hi matt1216. im just wondering why you are going against David Marrero/Fernando Verdasco? They won the last 6 meetings, and are up 12-1 in sets. And the last match was last month, and that looked like a easy win for them.

My bad, I didn't look into that one enough. Historically Mondays are average days at best for me. Hopefully I can come back with some solid plays tonight as well...


to anybody following, Mondays are hard because you do t really know who's as motivated as the should be. Wensday forward I should have a better read



Gl

[Bbfromgpt]

I tailed the under but it's not looking good for us. Oh well, if it's a loss just on to the next

[matt1216]

Ya tough day. I hope delpo comes back. What's going on??? Is gasguet playing well?