2013 Tennis Thread

[Hardcoar]

Well that's my point... I'm sure most would agree she is likely to win, but it's all in the odds – Seto would probably not bet on Goerges were the odds @ 2.5 (+150 crazy American odds), for instance.

Let's say the odds were @ 20 rather than @ 4. Would you still not bet on Goerges simply because you think Stephens 2-0 is the most probable outcome?

[joco]

Well that's my point... I'm sure most would agree she is likely to win, but it's all in the odds – Seto would probably not bet on Goerges were the odds @ 2.5 (+150 crazy American odds), for instance.

Let's say the odds were @ 20 rather than @ 4. Would you still not bet on Goerges simply because you think Stephens 2-0 is the most probable outcome?

well if it was 20 rather than 4 that would make it that much more enticing to sprinkle a little on it...but at the current price i wouldnt because 2-0 is the most probable outcome like u said. i want to win. not go for longshots and throw money down the drain in the process...

with that being said...this is sports betting and anythign is possible

[Seto]

oops.. missed this whole thing. yeah was about value.

anyway made some money overall so all good.

08/21: 1-1, +0.665x
Total: 92-107-2, -7.409x

[Seto]

Williams+7.5 -111 (risking 0.416x to win 0.375x)
Williams+2.5 sets -107 (risking 0.401x to win 0.375x)
Williams +483 (risking 0.25x to win 1.208x)
Giraldo/Berlocq over 38.5 -111 (risking 1.11x to win 1x)
Kukushkin/Martin over 35 -103 (risking 0.515x to win 0.5x)
Kuznetsov/Sela over 34.5 -104 (risking 0.52x to win 0.5x)
Bellucci+4.5 -107 (risking 0.803x to win 0.75x)
Bellucci +209 (risking 0.25x to win 0.523x)
Mladenovic -177 (risking 1.77x to win 1x)

All pinny

[Seto]

Chardy -131 (risking 0.655x to win 0.5x)
Kudla +109 (risking 0.5x to win 0.545x)
Kubot/Nieminen over 35.5 -102 (risking 0.51x to win 0.5x)
Duque-Marino+1.5 sets -104 (risking 0.39x to win 0.375x)
Duque-Marino +235 (risking 0.125x to win 0.294x)

All pinny

[Seto]

Yesterday: 4-3-1, +0.947x
Today: 4-2, +1.785x
Total: 100-112-3, -4.677x

[Seto]

Ram+2.5 sets -120 (risking 1.2x to win 1x)
Mladenovic+1.5 sets +102 (risking 0.75x to win 0.765x)
Mladenovic +244 (risking 0.25x to win 0.61x)
Bouchard+1.5 sets +113 (risking 0.75x to win 0.848x)
Bouchard +264 (risking 0.25x to win 0.66x)
Stephens -178 (risking 1.78x to win 1x)

all pinny

[Seto]

Today: 2-2, +1x
Total: 102-114-3, -3.677x

[Seto]

Today: 1-1, +0.5x
Total: 103-115-3, -3.177x

[Seto]

Smyczek+2.5 -110 (risking 1.1x to win 1x)
Ram+5 -106 (risking 0.795x to win 0.75x)
Ram +231 (risking 0.25x to win 0.578x)
Robson+5 +104 (risking 0.375x to win 0.39x)
Robson+1.5 sets +141 (risking 0.375x to win 0.529x)
Robson +405 (risking 0.25x to win 1.013x)

all pinny

[Seto]

Yesterday: 2-4, +0.5x
Total: 105-119-3, -2.677x

[Seto]

Hantuchova+1.5 sets -161 (pinnacle) (risking 1.208x to win 0.75x)
Hantuchova +143 (pinnacle) (risking 0.25x to win 0.358x)

[Ambition]

Is that for the match against Riske?

[Seto]

Is that for the match against Riske?

yeah it was... only match that she was playing really

[Seto]

Today: 2-0, +1.108x
Total: 107-119-3, -1.569x

[Seto]

Wawrinka/Berdych over 40.5 +100 (pinnacle) (risking 1x to win 1x)

[Seto]

Today: 0-1, -1x
Total: 107-120-3, -2.569x

[Seto]

Azarenka+5 -111 (risking 0.555x to win 0.5x)
Azarenka+1.5 sets +119 (risking 0.5x to win 0.595x)
Azarenka 1st set +236 (risking 0.25x to win 0.59x)
Azarenka +358 (risking 0.25x to win 0.895x)

All pinny

[Hardcoar]

That's interesting to say the least. I've a future on her so I hope she wins as well!

[secret007]

what do you think her actual chance against Serena?

[Seto]

That's interesting to say the least. I've a future on her so I hope she wins as well!

That was pretty brutal. I guess in some ways I could've gone 0-4 but the way serena broke through in the 1st and 3rd sets, along with the 6-1 are a bitter pill to swallow

[Seto]

what do you think her actual chance against Serena?

Sorry I couldn't get to your post on time

[Seto]

Today: 1-3, -0.46x
Total: 108-123-3, -3.029x

[Hardcoar]

Sorry I couldn't get to your post on time

A reply seems a bit superfluous given your preceding post, don't you think?

[Seto]

Djokovic +125 (pinnacle) (risking 2x to win 2.5x)

[Seto]

A reply seems a bit superfluous given your preceding post, don't you think?

Probably.

Haven't been checking in here as often cause my laptop is getting fixed, so unless I happen to be passing by I only post to put in my plays, I really should check in more to see if there's any activity here but oh well..

[Ambition]

Why take Djoker here? Just because of the plus odds? Only reason I see.

I'm all over Rafa in this one. Been playing way too good on hardcourt this year, not just a clay court player, I think he takes it rather easily. BoL though.

[Hardcoar]

Why take Djoker here? Just because of the plus odds? Only reason I see.

I'm all over Rafa in this one. Been playing way too good on hardcourt this year, not just a clay court player, I think he takes it rather easily. BoL though.

In this case that reason is a fairly legitimate one. After all, this is 2013 Djokovic in the USO finals we are referring to.

[Seto]

Why take Djoker here? Just because of the plus odds? Only reason I see.

I'm all over Rafa in this one. Been playing way too good on hardcourt this year, not just a clay court player, I think he takes it rather easily. BoL though.

Serves little purpose to justify my bet now, but I thought novak would rise to the challenge. When he plays at his best he is the best hard court player in the world without a shadow of a doubt. Hard not to want +125 there. He just wasn't able to sustain his level long enough and was mentally very weak I thought (and nadal very strong obviously)

[Seto]

Today: 0-1, -2x
Total: 108-124-3, -5.029x

[Seto]

Karlovic +137 (pinnacle) (risking 0.5x to win 0.685x)

[Seto]

Today: 0-1, -0.5x
Total: 108-125-3, -5.529x

[Seto]

Robson to win Guangzhou +504 (pinnacle) (risking 3x to win 15.12x)

Taking somewhat of a shot (wouldn't blame anyone for thinking it's a "homer" shot but it is what it is) I bet this last year +1200 and lost it in heartbreaking fashion so hopefully not a repeat of that. I am slightly puzzled by the odds, I've worked out the potential odds throughout the tourney at -400, -500, -250, -170, -150 and that's if all the other faves don't collapse before which rarely happens, and even then current odds are good to go. I think the pts to defend from last year should be somewhat motivating and the surface suits her much better than cornet for instance. Ideal opportunity to show she means it when she says she's going to stop only showing up at slams.

[Seto]

Cornet to win Guangzhou +325 (pinnacle) (risking 2x to win 6.5x)

I really wanted to ride robson out but these odds are ridiculous considering she has 2 -400 matches and the final where she will be at worst a small dog. I just pretty much have to bet this. It will also avoid the headache of hedging or not if she meets robson in the final. Hoping for a robson cornet final.

[Hardcoar]

I thought Cornet would proceed to destroy Robson in the finals. If Laura doesn't win this now she should retire Federer-style.